Analysis
11/19/22
8 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Rams vs. Saints
Rams (3-6) at Saints (3-7)
Opening Spread: Saints -3
Opening Game Total: 39
Opening Team Totals: Saints (21), Rams (18)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Saints -3.
- This line has moved to Saints -3.5 before coming back down to Saints -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Saints -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Saints -3.
- This total opened at 39 points.
- This total has moved down slightly to 38.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Saints: Out: RB Mark Ingram, LT Trevor Penning, LT James Hurst, C Erik McCoy, Edge Cameron Jordan, Edge Marcus Davenport, LB Pete Warner, CB Marshon Lattimore. Questionable: LG Andrus Peat.
Rams: Out: WR Cooper Kupp, LT Joe Noteboom, LT Austin Jackson, C Brian Allen. Questionable: DL A’Shawn Robinson.
The Saints Offense vs. the Rams Defense
At full strength, the Saints offensive line is a top-ten caliber unit. Given their current injury situations, New Orleans' offensive line is more of a middle-of-the-pack unit. The Rams front is a below-average unit as a whole, which makes this trench matchup a relative draw from a macro sense. That said, Aaron Donald is always an individual matchup nightmare. He’ll be getting the Saints' backup center and potentially their reserve left guard if Andrus Peat misses this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Saints are 3-7 against the spread this season.
- The Saints are 5-5 on overs this season.
- Andy Dalton is 80-73-6 against the spread in his career.
- Andy Dalton is 81-77-1 on overs in his career.
- Dennis Allen is 17-28-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Dennis Allen is 21-24-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Saints Offense
- The Saints are scoring 22.2 points per game, good for 17th in the league.
- New Orleans is tenth in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Andy Dalton is expected to start at quarterback for the Saints.
- Per the Edge, after massive usage throughout October, Alvin Kamara has fewer than ten carries and four targets in his last two games.
- Chris Olave is 22nd in the league in receptions (46), 13th in yards receiving (658), 18th in target share (26%), and sixth in air yards share (42%).
- Jarvis Landry returned to action last week after missing a month. Landry saw six targets against the Steelers last week.
- Juwan Johnson has four or more targets in four of his last five games.
- Per TruMedia, Chris Olave has played 275 snaps on the perimeter and 102 in the slot.
Rams Defense
- The Rams have allowed 22.2 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the ninth-fewest yards rushing per game and the 11th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Los Angeles has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Rams have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Rams Offense vs. the Saints Defense
The Rams offensive line is a bottom-tier unit that will be down center Brian Allen. At full strength, the Saints have a top-ten-level front. Unfortunately for New Orleans, they are down both Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. Given those losses, the Saints have an average to below-average defensive front. At full strength, the Saints front would have a major advantage in this contest. Given New Orleans's injuries at defensive end, the Saints have more of a moderate advantage in the trenches against the Rams season-derailing, bottom-tier offensive line.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 2-6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Rams are 3-6 on overs this season.
- Matthew Stafford is 84-100-6 against the spread in his career.
- Matthew Stafford is 96-91-3 on overs in his career.
- Sean McVay is 45-42-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McVay is 42-47-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Rams Offense
- The Rams are scoring 16.4 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Los Angeles is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- Last week against the Cardinals, Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers each had six carries and one target. Rookie running back Kyren Williams had one carry and three targets in his NFL debut.
- Per the Edge, Allen Robinson has at least five targets in all but one of his nine games. Robinson has breached 50 yards receiving in three of those contests and has yet to exceed 65 yards receiving in a game this year.
- Van Jefferson has eight total targets over the last two games, the first he’s appeared in this season.
- Ben Skowronek had seven targets last week.
- Among tight ends, Tyler Higbee is third in receptions (44), eighth in yards receiving (385), and fifth in target share (20.4%).
- Per TruMedia, Allen Robinson has played 362 snaps on the perimeter and 136 in the slot.
Saints Defense
- The Saints have allowed 24.7 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Saints have allowed the tenth-most yards rushing per game and the eighth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New Orleans has given up the tenth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- New Orleans has given up the fifth most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Saints have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Saints vs. Rams
This is a matchup between two of the most disappointing teams in the league. Injuries have significantly impacted both teams.
A bet on the Saints is a bet on a team that is down multiple starters on both lines and a few other impact players. They are facing the freefalling defending champion Rams, whose offense has been among the most disappointing units this season. If you’re betting on New Orleans, you are betting on the Rams offense continuing to struggle while being down Cooper Kupp.
Despite the Saints' critical injuries on defense, that’s not an unreasonable expectation, especially in the friendly confines of the Superdome. Andy Dalton has had his moments this season, but he’s struggled of late. If you’re betting on New Orleans, you’re betting on a cleaner game offensively despite the Saints being down at least two starters on their offensive line. Your biggest concern as a Saints bettor is that Aaron Donald will be matched up against reserve offensive linemen both in the interior and on the edge.
A bet on the Rams is a bet on the most disappointing team in the league this season. Los Angeles might have the worst offensive line in the league, the worst running game in football, and now they are down Cooper Kupp. If you’re betting on the Rams, you’re betting on Matthew Stafford being able to string together a few scoring drives despite these limitations. That hasn’t happened much this season, as Stafford’s offense has manufactured 20 points or more once over his last five games.
Now, to add some context, those underwhelming performances came against Dallas, Tampa Bay, and two games against rival San Francisco. New Orleans is a capable defense themselves, but they are down their two primary edge rushers. At full strength, the Saints front would take over this game against the Rams abysmal offensive line. Los Angeles catches a bit of a break there. Your primary advantage with a Rams bet is that the Saints are also dealing with injuries on their offensive line. Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd could make a significant impact in this contest. Your biggest concern as a Rams bettor is that they have a limited offense in one of the toughest road environments in the league in New Orleans.
Rams vs. Saints Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will have exposure to both of these teams in winner pools, and I will treat this game as a true coinflip in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: This game is a mess from an injury standpoint. In pools where you can get the Rams +3.5, I’d lean toward that side. In pools that have the Saints -2.5, I view that as a true coinflip.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: With Cooper Kupp Out, It is Time to Stick a Fork in the Rams
