Betting
11/19/22
7 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Raiders vs. Broncos
Raiders (2-7) at Broncos (3-6)
Opening Spread: Broncos -3
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Broncos (22.25), Raiders (19.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Broncos -3.
- This line has moved down to Broncos -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Broncos -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Broncos -2.5.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total remains at 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Broncos: Out: FB Andrew Beck, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR K.J. Hamler, LT Garrett Bolles, Edge Randy Gregory. Questionable: C Graham Glasgow, RT Tom Compton, Edge Baron Browning.
Raiders: Out: WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Darren Waller. Questionable: WR Davante Adams, LT Kolton Miller, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Luke Masterson.
The Broncos Offense vs. the Raiders Defense
The Broncos have an injury-ravaged, bottom-tier offensive line. The Raiders front is an underperforming, below-average unit. Las Vegas has a talented edge duo in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, but that group has failed to make a consistent impact this season. From a macro sense, this trench matchup is a relative draw, although the Raiders' edge duo has the capacity to make a significant impact against Denver’s vulnerable offensive line.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Broncos are 3-6 against the spread this season.
- The Broncos are 1-8 on overs this season.
- Russell Wilson is 86-74-6 against the spread in his career.
- Russell Wilson is 76-89-1 on overs in his career.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 3-6 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 1-8 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Broncos Offense
- The Broncos are scoring 14.6 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Denver is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing.
- Broncos running back opportunities last week against the Titans: Melvin Gordon had seven carries and six targets. Latavius Murray had nine carries and three targets. Chase Edmonds had two carries and two targets.
- Per the Edge, Courtland Sutton has double-digit targets in four of his nine games. Sutton has a 23.9% target share and a 33.2% air yards share.
- Kendall Hinton is in line for role expansion with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler sidelined.
- Greg Dulcich has 18 targets over his last three games. Dulcich has at least 40 yards receiving in three of his four games this season.
- Per TruMedia, Courtland Sutton has played 466 snaps on the perimeter and 68 in the slot.
Raiders Defense
- The Raiders have allowed 25.1 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Las Vegas has given up the 11th-most PPR points to slot receivers.
- The Raiders have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the seventh-most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Raiders Offense vs. the Broncos Defense
The Raiders have a below-average offensive line. Denver has a fringe top-ten front at full strength, but they are more of a middle-of-the-pack unit with Randy Gregory sidelined. The Broncos front has a moderate advantage in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 3-6 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 5-3-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 64-70-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 71-60-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 16-21 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 19-17-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Raiders Offense
- The Raiders are scoring 22.6 points per game, good for 14th in the league.
- Las Vegas is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs' 821 yards rushing is fourth in the league. Jacobs is 13th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Davante Adams is seventh in the league in receptions (57), he’s sixth in yards receiving (784), he’s tied for the league in receiving touchdowns (8), he’s third in target share (31.9%), and he’s seventh in air yards share (42%).
- Mack Hollins has 49 targets this season with a 15.8% target share.
- Foster Moreau has at least four targets in six of his seven games.
Broncos Defense
- The Broncos have allowed 16.6 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Broncos have allowed the sixteenth-most yards rushing per game and the fourteenth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Denver has given up the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Broncos have allowed the thirteenth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Broncos vs. Raiders
Vegas beat Denver 32-23 earlier in the year. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns, while Davante Adams finished with 101 yards receiving. Denver’s offensive usage was far less condensed. A Raiders fumble return for a touchdown was the difference in this one.
If You're Betting on Broncos
A bet on the Broncos is a bet on a Denver defense that has given up the fewest points per game this season. The Broncos defense is a good one, but they’ve played a lot of mediocre offenses this year. Right now, you’d have to classify the Raiders as a mediocre offense. If you’re betting on Denver, the foundation of that bet is their defense providing another strong effort against a middling opponent. Russell Wilson’s offense has been among the most underwhelming units to this point in the season. A matchup against the Raiders' bottom-tier defense could be the get-well game that Wilson needs. That said, Denver’s wide receiver room and offensive line have both been significantly reduced by injury. Your biggest concern as a Broncos bettor is that the Raiders edge duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones finally takes over a game against an already inconsistent offense.
What to Expect as a Raiders Bettor
Raiders bettors need two things here. The first is that Derek Carr plays a clean game against a Denver defense that held him to 188 yards passing earlier this season. The second thing you need is for Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones to do their part in keeping the struggling Broncos offense on the ropes. The Raiders offense has already put together a solid effort against Denver this year, so that’s not a huge ask. Expecting the Raiders defense to suddenly put forth a strong effort is more of a wishful thinking expectation, even though their edge duo gives them a path. The worst-case scenario for a Raiders bettor is that this is the game Russell Wilson looks like his old self while the Raiders offense struggles against the Broncos consistently strong defense.
Raiders vs. Broncos Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Denver in most of my winner pools, but I will take the Raiders in at least one. I’m going to treat this game as a coin flip, but I’m going to have it above the other coin flip games in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I am considering a bet on Denver in my main ATS tournament, but I’m trying to find a more reliable option.
Survivor Pool: Denver would be a very aggressive survivor pool option that I’d prefer to avoid in this matchup.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
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