Betting
11/18/22
8 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Panthers vs. Ravens
Panthers (3-7) at Ravens (6-3)
Opening Spread: Ravens -12
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Ravens (28.25), Panthers (16.25)
Weather: Outdoors, some wind concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Ravens -12.
- This line has moved to Ravens -12.5 with some Ravens -13 options at some sportsbooks.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Ravens -12.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Ravens -13.5.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total has moved all the way down to 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Ravens: Questionable: RB Gus Edwards, TE Mark Andrews
Panthers: Out: DT Matt Ioannidis, S Jeremy Chinn; Questionable: RT Taylor Moton, S Myles Hartsfield
The Ravens Offense vs. Panthers Defense
The Ravens have a fringe top-10 offensive line that benefits from Lamar Jackson’s historic athletic ability. The Panthers have a slightly below-average front. The Ravens have a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 5-4 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 3-6 on overs this season.
- Lamar Jackson is 36-30-1 against the spread in his career.
- Lamar Jackson is 31-36 on overs in his career.
- John Harbaugh is 118-107-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- John Harbaugh is 113-120-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Ravens Offense
- The Ravens are scoring 26.1 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- Baltimore is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Lamar Jackson’s 635 yards rushing are 13th in the league.
- If Gus Edwards returns to action, we can reasonably expect him and Kenyan Drake to roughly split opportunities at running back.
- Devin Duvernay has eight total targets over his last three games.
- Demarcus Robinson has 17 targets over his last three games.
- Mark Andrews has double-digit targets in four of his eight games this season.
- If Andrews misses this contest rookie tight end Isaiah Likely is in line for role expansion. Likely has seven receptions on 12 targets for 101 yards receiving and two touchdowns over his last two games.
Panthers Defense
- The Panthers have allowed 24.3 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- The Panthers held Daniel Jones to 21 yards rushing in Week 2. They’ve held Marcus Mariota to 43 yards rushing on the dot in both of their matchups with Atlanta. Mariota achieved that rushing total on six and three carries, respectively.
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and the 15th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Carolina has given up the ninth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Carolina has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Panthers have allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Panthers Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Panthers’ offensive line is right in that average to below-average tier. I have the Ravens' defensive front tiered in that same general area. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 4-6 against the spread this season.
- The Panthers are 4-6 on overs this season.
- Baker Mayfield is 25-40-1 against the spread in his career.
- Baker Mayfield is 33-32-1 on overs in his career.
- Steve Wilks is 10-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Steve Wilks is 9-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Panthers Offense
- The Panthers are scoring 20.4 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Carolina is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
- Baker Mayfield is getting the start at quarterback this week.
- Per the Edge, D’Onta Foreman has breached 100 yards rushing in three of his last four games.
- D.J. Moore has at least six targets in all 10 of his games this season. Moore has double-digit targets in three of those contests.
- Terrace Marshall Jr. has 17 targets over his last three games.
- Laviska Shenault Jr. has 11 targets over his last three games.
- Tommy Tremble has one target in five of his eight games.
Ravens Defense
- The Ravens have allowed 21.8 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the fourth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has given up the 10th-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the eighth-most to slot receivers.
- The Ravens have allowed the 24th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Ravens have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Ravens vs. Panthers
A bet on the Ravens starts as a bet on Lamar Jackson’s ability to carry what is an otherwise underwhelming offense. That’s backed up by the Ravens being among the most consistent football operations since the turn of the century. This week Baltimore is coming off their bye to face a Panthers team that beat the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. If you’re betting on Baltimore, you are betting on Lamar Jackson having a field day against the struggling Panthers, despite Baltimore’s lackluster supporting cast on offense.
If Mark Andrews misses this contest, you could argue that Jackson has the weakest collection of pass-catchers in the league. Before their bye, Jackson and his Ravens went into New Orleans and beat the Saints 27-13 without Andrews. The addition of former Bears linebacker Roquan Smith paid some early dividends in that contest. If you’re betting on Baltimore, you’re also betting on a Ravens' defense that is starting to trend up. Your biggest concern with a Ravens bet is that Steve Wilks has done a great job since taking over the Panthers job in season, and 13-points is simply a lot to lay in an NFL game.
A bet on the Panthers is a bet on Steve Wilks continuing to get high-effort performances out of his football team. Wilks has done a fantastic job since taking over in Week 6, going 2-4 over that span during a difficult schedule run. Baker Mayfield returns as the Panthers' starting quarterback. Mayfield should be viewed as an unreliable, failed first overall pick at this point.
That said, he’s a better passer than P.J. Walker. Mayfield is very familiar with Baltimore, as he used to face them twice a year during his tenure in Cleveland. You have two core concerns as a Panthers bettor. The first is that Lamar Jackson carries and elevates his offense as he often does, and the Panthers' average-at-best defense has no answer for it. Your second-biggest concern is that Mayfield is more of a liability than an asset against an improving Ravens' defense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Lamar Jackson is a fading MVP candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m taking the Ravens in winner pools and I’m going to rank them on top in my confidence pool rankings, which will likely be consensus.
Spread Pool: I do not currently intend to take either side against the spread. I’d slightly lean towards the Ravens in ATS pools where you pick every game.
Survivor Pool: I’ll be taking the Ravens in my main survivor pool entry. Ultimately, if Lamar Jackson’s Ravens lose to the Panthers this week, that’s a decision I can live with.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: Time to Give Lamar the Bag!
