Betting
11/18/22
8 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jets vs. Patriots
Jets (6-3) at Patriots (5-4)
Opening Spread: Patriots -3
Opening Game Total: 38.5
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (20.75), Jets (17.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Patriots -3.
- This line has moved to Patriots -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Patriots -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Patriots -3.5.
- This total opened at 38.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 39.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Patriots: Out: RT Marcus Cannon; Questionable: WR DeVante Parker, DT Christian Barmore, Edge Anfernee Jennings, CB Jonathan Jones, S Kyle Dugger, P Jake Bailey
Jets: Out: OT Mekhi Becton, OT George Fant, OT Max Mitchell, OT Greg Senat, OT/ OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, DT Sheldon Rankins; Questionable: WR Corey Davis, LT Duane Brown, RG Nate Herbig
The Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense
This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup, as the Patriots' offensive line and the Jets' front are both top-10 caliber units. There is no significant advantage for either side in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Patriots are 5-3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 4-5 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 12-10-1 against the spread in his career.
- Mac Jones is 11-12 on overs in his career.
- Bill Belichick is 207-143-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Bill Belichick is 184-173-5 on overs since 2000 an NFL head coach.
Patriots Offense
- The Patriots are scoring 22.6 points per game, good for 14th in the league.
- New England is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Mac Jones has four touchdown passes to seven interceptions this season.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has double-digit carries in each of his last seven games, and he’s only had less than five targets once during that span.
- Damien Harris has missed some time this season. That said in his last game, which came against the Jets in late October, Harris had 11 carries to Stevenson’s 16.
- Jakobi Meyers leads the Patriots with his 24.9% target share and his 33% air yards share.
- DeVante Parker has more than two targets in three of his seven games.
- Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, and No. 50 overall pick Tyquan Thornton each have between 116 and 120 routes run this season.
- Hunter Henry (10.9% target share) and Jonnu Smith (9.7% target share) are in a relative platoon at tight end.
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 19.6 points per game, which is 10th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the ninth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
The Jets have done a remarkable job maintaining league average offensive line play despite losing multiple starters throughout the year. The Jets' injuries at offensive tackle in particular have been mind-blowing. Patriots edge Matthew Judon leads the league in sacks and spearheads a fringe top-10 Patriots' front. New England has a moderate advantage in the trenches against the Jets' injury-depleted offensive line, while Judon has a significant individual matchup advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 6-3 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 3-6 on overs this season.
- Zach Wilson is 10-9 against the spread in his career.
- Zach Wilson is 9-10 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 12-14 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 13-13 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 21.8 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- New York is 19th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- Zach Wilson’s passing volume is closely related to game script.
- Per the Edge, Michael Carter and James Robinson are nearly splitting running back carries since Robinson joined New York. Carter only had one target in his last game, but he had seven the week before.
- Corey Davis has at least four targets in all but one of his seven games this year. Davis has seen double-digit targets once this season, which came on opening day against the Ravens with Joe Flacco under center.
- Over his last two games Garrett Wilson has 14 receptions on 16 targets for 207 yards receiving. Wilson breached 100 yards receiving against New England in late October.
- Elijah Moore hasn’t had a reception since Oct. 9.
- Tyler Conklin had six receptions on 10 targets for 79 yards receiving and two touchdowns when the Jets faced New England in late October.
- Per TruMedia, Conklin has played 311 snaps as an in-line tight end, 32 on the perimeter, and 105 in the slot.
Patriots Defense
- The Patriots have allowed 18.4 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the 13th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New England has given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Patriots have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Patriots have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Patriots vs. Jets
A bet on the Patriots is a bet on Bill Belichick getting an extra week to prepare for Zach Wilson’s offense. New England beat the Jets in East Rutherford, New Jersey 22-17 just a few weeks ago. If you’re betting on the Patriots, you are betting on a very similar outcome that is driven by a strong defensive effort. Considering the injuries across the Jets' offensive line, New England’s improving front could have a major impact in this contest. Mac Jones threw an interception and was sacked six times against the Jets earlier this season. If you’re betting on New England here, you’re doing so with the expectation that Jones has a cleaner game this time around. I have two core concerns with a Patriots bet. The first is that the Jets' defense could conceivably outplay New England’s in this matchup. The second is that this game could very easily end up being decided by a field goal, which is a problem for Patriots bettors taking New England as -3.5-point favorites.
A bet on the Jets is a bet on perhaps the biggest surprise team in the AFC. The Jets' defense in particular has significantly exceeded expectations, especially their secondary. If you’re betting on the Jets, you are expecting a strong defensive effort against a buttoned-up Patriots team coming off their bye. If this game was coming directly after the Jets upset win over the Bills, I’d be concerned about a letdown in this spot. But since the Jets are also coming off their bye, that isn’t a concern. What does concern me with a Jets bet is that their offensive line has been absolutely ravaged by injuries, especially at offensive tackle. Not only has the great Bill Belichick had an extra week to prepare for the Jets, but his front has an advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Awards Market Ramifications: Matthew Judon is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Sauce Gardner is the Defensive Rookie of the Year front-runner.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I may get a little exposure to the Jets in winner pools, but I’m going to primarily take the Patriots in that format. I might end up being slightly above consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will either take the Patriots side or pass on this contest.
Survivor Pool: Ideally, this contest should be avoided in survivor pools. But we are late enough in the year where you might be “stuck” with a tight option like this.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
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