Betting
11/19/22
7 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Injuries, wind, and a venue change are big stories in an unconventional Week 11. Below you'll find a link to each of my betting previews, along with a summary for each game.
Browns at Bills (in Detroit)
Opening Spread: Bills -9
Opening Game Total: 47
Opening Team Totals: Bills (28), Browns (19)
Weather: Dome
The venue change changed how I view this game. If this contest was being played during a massive snowstorm in Buffalo, I was leading toward the Browns +7.5. Now that this contest will be played in Detroit, the indoor venue favors the pass-centric Bills offense. At this point, I'm not going to play this game directly, but when picking every game, I'd lean toward the Buffalo side. Buffalo is a reasonable survivor pool option, but I'm interested in using them on Thanksgiving against the Lions.
Panthers at Ravens
Opening Spread: Ravens -12
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Ravens (28.25), Panthers (16.25)
Weather: Outdoors, some wind concerns
If you've ever played in a survivor pool, you know that there are no sure things, but the Ravens coming off a bye against the Panthers is a very strong option in that format. I will stay away from this game against the spread, as 13-points in an NFL game is a lot. But I have taken Lamar Jackson's over on rushing yards that you can currently find in the 58 to 61 range.
Lions at Giants
Opening Spread: Giants -3.5
Opening Game Total: 46
Opening Team Totals: Giants (24.75), Lions (21.25)
Weather: Outdoors, some chance for impactful wind
If the Giants offense has any ceiling, at home against Detroit is the time to show it. Right now, sustained 15 mph winds are expected, which is at least on the fringe of when I start to pay attention to the impact wind can have on a game. On our Friday Player Prop Happy Hour show, I took Jared Goff to throw an interception in this contest at -115 odds. If Wan'Dale Robinson is good to go for this matchup, I also have my eye out on his overs if his yards receiving number is around 30, and his receptions are 2.5.
Jets at Patriots
Opening Spread: Patriots -3
Opening Game Total: 38.5
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (20.75), Jets (17.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Patriots beat the Jets in New York 22-17 in Week 8. Both teams are coming off their bye to square off for the second time this season. The Jets and Patriots are in playoff contention, so both sides have a lot to play for in this contest. If I play this game, it will be from the Patriots' side, but I'm still on the fence here.
Bears at Falcons
Opening Spread: Falcons -3
Opening Game Total: 49
Opening Team Totals: Falcons (26), Bears (23)
Weather: Dome
I went into this game trying to talk myself out of a Bears bet, which I was able to do. Since I'm going to pass on this game against the spread, I've been looking for some props options. I tailed Josh Larky's over 43.5 yards receiving bet on Darnell Mooney, who has beaten that number in six of his last seven games.
Eagles at Colts
Opening Spread: Colts +9
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Colts (17.75), Eagles (26.75)
Weather: Dome
Early in the week before the Eagles lost to the Commanders, I had some interest in the Colts +9. Now, the Eagles are -6.5, and I'm considering them as an option in my main tournament entry. I've bet Miles Sanders over 58.5 yards rushing at -115. Sanders has beaten that number in six of his nine games this season, and this is a way to bet on the Eagles' trench advantage on offense. I also took Michael Pittman's over on yards receiving on the Player Prop Happy Hour.
Commanders at Texans
Opening Spread: Texans +2.5
Opening Game Total: 40.5
Opening Team Totals: Texans (19), Commanders (21.5)
Weather: Dome
My instinct as a sports bettor is to wager against Washington coming off a banner win in Philadelphia last week, but I have no confidence in the Texans. While I will pass on this contest against the spread, I will take Brandin Cooks over 51.5 yards receiving at -115.
Rams at Saints
Opening Spread: Saints -3
Opening Game Total: 39
Opening Team Totals: Saints (21), Rams (18)
Weather: Dome
This game has a ton of impactful injuries for both teams. If you are in a spread pool where you can get the Rams +3.5, I lean toward that side. At the current line of Saints -2.5, I have no lean in this game, as both teams are very unreliable.
Raiders at Broncos
Opening Spread: Broncos -3
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Broncos (22.25), Raiders (19.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Similar to Rams at Saints, this is a contest between two of the more disappointing teams in the league. A wrinkle here is that Josh McDaniels and Nathaniel Hackett are head coaches on the hot seat at the mid-way point of their first year with their new team. Denver's defense has benefitted from playing several mid-range to below-average offenses this year, but they are the most reliable unit in this game. I'm considering Denver against the spread, and I bet on Courtland Sutton's over on receptions during the Player Prop Happy Hour.
Cowboys at Vikings
Opening Spread: Vikings +2
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Vikings (22.75), Cowboys (24.75)
Weather: Dome
This is a contest between two similar rosters, where both teams are coming off overtime games. I took Dallas -1.5 early in the week, and I intend to take them in my main ATS tournament entry. I've also taken Kirk Cousins to throw an interception in this contest at -115.
Bengals at Steelers
Opening Spread: Steelers +5
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (18.25), Bengals (23.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Steelers pass rush derailed the Bengals offense on opening day. Now that T.J. Watt has returned to action, Pittsburgh's pass rush also has a significant advantage against their division rivals in this matchup. On the other side, Joe Burrow's Bengals are coming off their bye and have been a much more reliable football team than the Steelers this year. I took Diontae Johnson's over 50.5 yards receiving on the Player Prop Happy Hour.
SNF: Chiefs at Chargers
Opening Spread: Chargers +7
Opening Game Total: 50
Opening Team Totals: Chargers (21.5), Chiefs (28.5)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns
I took the Chargers +6.5 earlier in the week simply because I thought that number was too high. I intend to take that number in my main ATS entry as well. If Keenan Allen and/ or Mike Williams can go in this contest, I'll be more enthusiastic about that stance. With JuJu Smith-Schuster out, I took Kadarius Toney's over 50.5 yards receiving at -115 when it came out.
MNF: 49ers at Cardinals
Opening Spread: Cardinals +7.5
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (18), 49ers (25.5).
Weather: Dome at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.
Kyler Murray's status is still up in the air. If Murray plays, I'll be interested in the over at 43.5 points. If Marquise "Hollywood" Brown ends up suiting up for this game, he's mispriced on DraftKings showdown at $200. A $6400 showdown price on Hollywood would be on the low side if he's active.
