Betting
11/19/22
7 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Eagles at Colts
Eagles (8-1) at Colts (4-5-1)
Opening Spread: Colts +9
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Colts (17.75), Eagles (26.75)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Colts +9.
- This line has moved all the way down to Colts +6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Colts +6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Colts +6.5.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Colts: Out: Edge Kwity Paye, LB Shaquille Leonard. Questionable: RB Deon Jackson, RT Braden Smith, LB Zaire Franklin.
Eagles: Out: TE Dallas Goedert, DT Jordan Davis.
The Colts Offense vs. the Eagles Defense
In Jeff Saturday’s first game as a head coach, the Colts offensive line took a step forward against the Raiders last week. The Colts offensive line is a below-average unit with the capacity for further improvement. Colts right tackle Braden Smith was a late addition to the injury report this week. The Eagles have a top-five defensive front. The Eagles have a significant advantage in the trenches this week. With that said, Philadelphia has struggled against the run since rookie DT Jordan Davis went down with an injury.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Colts are 4-6 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 2-8 on overs this season.
- Matt Ryan is 112-114-4 against the spread in his career.
- Matt Ryan is 103-124-3 on overs in his career.
- Jeff Saturday is 1-0 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Jeff Saturday is 1-0 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Colts Offense
- The Colts are scoring 15.7 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Indianapolis is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- Matt Ryan took over at quarterback last week against the Raiders.
- After a stellar 2021 campaign, Jonathan Taylor’s 2022 season has been riddled with injuries. Per the Edge, Taylor has breached 100 yards rushing twice in his seven games this season. Taylor had 147 yards rushing against the Raiders last week.
- Michael Pittman Jr. has at least six targets in every game this season. Pittman has at least nine targets in six of his nine games this year.
- In the last three games that Matt Ryan has played, Parris Campbell has 32 targets.
- Alec Pierce saw encouraging usage during October, but he only has two targets in each of his last two games.
- Colts’ tight ends Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox are roughly splitting limited opportunities.
Eagles Defense
- The Eagles have allowed 18.6 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 13th-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the sixth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Eagles Offense vs. the Colts Defense
The Eagles have a top-five offensive line. Much like their offensive line, the Colts have a below-average defensive front with enough talent to play above their current standard level. The Eagles offensive line has a significant advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 5-4 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 6-3 on overs this season.
- Jalen Hurts is 18-20-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jalen Hurts is 20-19 on overs in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 13-12-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 16-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Eagles Offense
- The Eagles are scoring 27.3 points per game, good for third in the league.
- Philadelphia is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jalen Hurts’ 354 yards rushing is sixth among quarterbacks.
- Miles Sanders’ 710 yards rushing is ninth in the league. Sanders has 42 yards receiving on the season.
- A.J. Brown is 25th in the league in receptions (44), ninth in yards receiving (725), tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns (6), ninth in target share (28.7%), and tenth in air yards share (40.6%).
- DeVonta Smith has eight targets in two of his last three games. Smith has breached 100 yards receiving once and has double-digit targets in two games this season.
- Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra and Tyree Jackson could all see some level of role expansion in Dallas Goedert’s absence. Needless to say, the loss of Goedert is a significant one.
Colts Defense
- The Colts have allowed 20.3 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- The Colts have not faced a quarterback with Jalen Hurts rushing upside this season.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Indianapolis has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Colts have allowed the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Colts have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This is What You’re Betting On in Eagles vs. Colts
The Colts came out and beat the Raiders 25-20 in Jeff Saturday’s NFL head coaching debut last week. Matt Ryan returned to action, the offensive line played their (arguably) best game of the season, and Jonathan Taylor breached 100 yards on the ground against the Raiders. If you’re betting on the Colts this week, you are betting on a similar effort out of their offense. In particular, you likely need Jonathan Taylor to have a strong game on the ground against the Eagles struggling run defense.
The Colts defense has been solid this year, especially at home. Back in Week 3, the Colts defense was the primary reason Indianapolis knocked off Kansas City. If you’re betting on the Colts, you shouldn’t expect that type of effort, but this group showed some serious ceiling in that game. Your biggest concern as a Colts bettor is that Philadelphia is simply a more talented roster. The Eagles have significant advantages in both trenches, which is your biggest worry if you bet on the Colts this week.
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on the league’s most talented roster coming off a loss to Washington on Monday Night Football. The Eagles have major advantages in both trenches. Offensively, Philadelphia has the raw materials to shred the Colts on the ground and in the air. Defensively, the Eagles pass rush could realistically derail this game. Matt Ryan has struggled mightily against pressure behind the Colts struggling offensive line this season.
If you’re betting on the Eagles, I’m building that bet on Philadelphia’s pass rush dominating this game while the Eagles top-ten level secondary limits opportunities for Colts pass catchers. A bet on the Eagles is also a bet against the Colts overall situation, as Jeff Saturday is making just his second appearance as an NFL coach, not to mention a head coach. Your biggest concern with an Eagles bet is that they underperform against a solid football team, just like they did against Washington last week. The Eagles can win this game without covering the current -6.5 number.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is an MVP contender. Nick Sirianni is still the Coach of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: The Colts are an interesting differentiator option as a significant home dog in winner pools. That said, I will be taking the Eagles in that format coming off a loss. I expect to be right with consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I had some interest in the Colts at +9 early this week, but I’m now debating an Eagles bet at -6.5 with them coming off a loss on Monday Night Football.
Survivor Pool: I have more interest in the Eagles as a survivor pool option after doing a deep dive into this game than I did earlier this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: Former NFL RB Eddie George discusses Miles Sanders vs. Jonathan Taylor and how Jeff Saturday should use him.
