Betting

11/19/22

8 min read

NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Chiefs at Chargers

Joey Bosa Patrick Mahomes

SNF: Chiefs (7-2) at Chargers (5-4)

Opening Spread: Chargers +7

Opening Game Total: 50

Opening Team Totals: Chargers (21.5), Chiefs (28.5)

Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Chargers +7.
  • This line has moved to Chargers +5.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chargers +6.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers +5.5.
  • This total opened at 50 points.
  • This total has moved down slightly to 49.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Chargers: Out: LT Rashawn Slater, Edge Joey Bosa, CB J.C. Jackson; Questionable: WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams

Chiefs: Out: WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Mecole Hardman

The Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

The Chargers have a middle-of-the-pack offensive line with stud LT Rashawn Slater sidelined. The Chiefs have a fringe top-ten front four that’s headlined by elite DT Chris Jones. This trench matchup is relatively even from a macro sense, but Jones presents an individual matchup problem on the inside.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Chargers are 6-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Chargers are 4-5 on overs this season.
  • Justin Herbert is 22-19 against the spread in his career.
  • Justin Herbert is 23-18 on overs in his career.
  • Brandon Staley is 14-12 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Brandon Staley is 14-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Chargers Offense

  • The Chargers are scoring 22.2 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
  • Los Angeles is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, among running backs Austin Ekeler is 25th in yards rushing and first in yards receiving.
  • Back in Week 2 against the Chiefs, Ekeler had nine receptions on ten targets for 55 yards receiving.
  • Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are expected to play in this contest.
  • Keenan Allen has only played in two games this season.
  • Mike Williams has double-digit targets in three games and has breached 100 yards receiving in all of them. Williams has at least six targets in six of his seven games this year.
  • Josh Palmer has 30 total targets over the last three games. Expect his role size to shrink with the return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
  • Gerald Everett left last week’s game early against the 49ers with an injury. Everett had a range of seven to nine targets in his previous three games. Everett’s usage will likely be negatively impacted by the return of Allen and Williams.
  • Per TruMedia, Mike Williams has played 370 snaps on the perimeter and 58 in the slot.
  • Keenan Allen has played 21 snaps on the perimeter and 23 in the slot.
  • Josh Palmer has played 309 snaps on the perimeter and 130 in the slot.
  • Gerald Everett has played 198 snaps as an in-line tight end, 43 on the perimeter, and 126 in the slot.

Chiefs Defense

  • The Chiefs have allowed 22.9 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Kansas City has given up the eighth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • Kansas City has given up the second-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
  • The Chiefs have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Chiefs have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot. 

The Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense

The Chiefs have a top-ten level offensive line. Without Joey Bosa, the Chargers have a below-average front. The Chiefs' offensive line has a macro advantage in this contest, though Chargers edge Khalil Mack is a matchup issue for Kansas City on the outside.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Chiefs are 4-5 against the spread this season.
  • The Chiefs are 4-5 on overs this season.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 38-32-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 38-33-1 on overs in his career.
  • Andy Reid is 194-161-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
  • Andy Reid is 177-174-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.

Chiefs Offense

  • The Chiefs are scoring 30 points per game, which is the best in the league.
  • Kansas City is first in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
  • Chiefs running back opportunities from last week: Isiah Pacheco had 16 carries and no targets. Jerrick McKinnon had one carry and eight targets. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had no carries and two targets.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling gets a lot of playing time, and he’s capable of beating an opponent deep any week, but Per the Edge, he hasn’t had more than four targets in a game since October 10th.
  • In his second game as a Chief Kadarius Toney had four receptions on five targets for 57 yards and a score. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman out, Toney is in line for role expansion.
  • Per TruMedia, Travis Kelce has played 153 snaps as an in-line tight end, 129 on the perimeter, and 183 in the slot.

Chargers Defense

  • The Chargers have allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Los Angeles has given up the 24th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Chargers have allowed the tenth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Chargers have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Chargers vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 27-24 in Kansas City back in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football.

Last season the Chiefs lost to the Chargers at home 30-24, while Kansas City won in Los Angeles 34-28 on Thursday Night Football.

A bet on the Chargers is a bet on Justin Herbert’s offense. Los Angeles is likely getting back Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. We don’t know how close either player is to 100%, but any version of these wide receivers is a boost to the Chargers' offense. The Chiefs have been creamed by pass-catching running backs, and Austin Ekeler is one of the two best pass-catching backs in the league along with Christian McCaffrey. If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are betting on Justin Herbert’s offense keeping this game within 5-6 points, depending on what number you have. Your biggest concern as a Chargers bettor is that Patrick Mahomes shreds Los Angeles in the air while the Chargers' bottom-tier run defense is exploited by the Chiefs on the ground.

A bet on the Chiefs always starts as a bet on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s football operation. Mahomes is off to a historic start in his career, but I’d argue that this is his most impressive season to date. The Chiefs will be down JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman on offense, but they still have Travis Kelce. Recently acquired Kadarius Toney already looks like a difference-maker as well, which is no surprise to me or fellow Toney enthusiast Josh Larky. I’d go as far as to say that Toney is the second-best pass-catcher on the Chiefs behind Kelce. Further, the Chargers rarely limit anyone on the ground. If you’re betting on the Chiefs, you are primarily betting on Patrick Mahomes' offense and its ability to beat up the Chargers' underperforming defense in both phases. The Chiefs' defense is going into this game with no starters on the injury report. Kansas City’s front can be impactful, especially in the interior with Chris Jones. Your biggest concern as a Chiefs bettor is that they are giving between five and six points to a division rival, playing at home, that can outright beat them.

Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to get some exposure to both teams in winner pools. I’m also going to treat this game as a relative coin flip, which means I’ll be much lower than the consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: I bet the Chargers +6.5 and I’m going to take them in my main ATS tournament entry. On average I’ll take my chances with Justin Herbert getting five or more points.

Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 32-18

Props 2022: 34-18

WATCH MORE: Bank it With Tank Previews Chiefs vs. Chargers


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