Betting
11/18/22
8 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Browns vs. Bills
Browns (3-6) at Bills (6-3)
This game has been moved to Detroit due to extreme weather conditions in Buffalo.
Opening Spread: Bills -9
Opening Game Total: 47
Opening Team Totals: Bills (28), Browns (19)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened with Bills -9.
- This line has moved to Bills -7.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bills -8.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bills -8.
- The total opened at 47 points.
- The total moved down due to severe weather concerns in Buffalo, but has moved back up to 48.5 points with the venue change to Detroit.
Notable Injuries
Bills: Questionable: QB Josh Allen, WR Isaiah McKenzie, LG Rodger Saffold, Edge Greg Rousseau, LB Tremaine Edmunds, CB Tre’Davious White, S Jordan Poyer
Browns: Questionable: TE David Njoku
The Bills Offense vs. Browns Defense
This trench matchup is relatively even from a macro sense as Buffalo has a middle-of-the-road offensive line, while Cleveland’s front is in that same general tier. That said, Browns edge Myles Garrett has an individual matchup advantage against virtually everyone.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bills are 4-5 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are 2-7 on overs this season.
- Josh Allen is 39-27-4 against the spread in his career.
- Josh Allen is 29-39-2 on overs in his career.
- Sean McDermott is 49-36-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McDermott is 39-49-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Bills Offense
- The Bills are scoring 27.8 points per game, good for second in the league.
- Buffalo is third in the league in yards passing per game and 10th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Josh Allen’s 476 yards rushing is third among quarterbacks.
- Devin Singletary is 32nd among running backs in yards rushing and 11th in yards receiving.
- In his two games as a Bill, Nyheim Hines doesn’t have a carry, and he’s been targeted once in each of those contests.
- Stefon Diggs is third in the league in receptions (72), third in yards receiving (985), second in receiving touchdowns (7), sixth in target share (29.4%), and 11th in air yards share (38.6%).
- Gabe Davis has at least six targets in four of his last five games. Davis is coming off a 6-93-1 line on 10 targets against the Vikings last week.
- Dawson Knox has 10 targets over his last two games, and he breached 50 yards receiving in a game for the first time last week.
- Per TruMedia, Stefon Diggs has played 298 snaps on the perimeter and 163 in the slot.
- Gabe Davis has played 422 snaps on the perimeter and 53 in the slot.
Browns Defense
- The Browns have allowed only 26.4 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Cleveland held Lamar Jackson to 59 yards rushing on 10 carries earlier this year.
- Per The Edge, the Browns have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the eighth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cleveland has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Cleveland has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Browns have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Browns Offense vs. Bills Defense
This is a true strength vs. strength matchup, as the Browns have a top-five offensive line while the Bills have a top-five pass rush. From a macro sense this trench matchup is a relative draw. That said, Cleveland has a slight advantage in the run game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Browns are 4-5 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 7-1-1 on overs this season.
- Jacoby Brissett is 34-32-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jacoby Brissett is 33-34-1 on overs in his career.
- Kevin Stefanski is 17-25 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin Stefanski is 23-18-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Browns Offense
- The Browns are scoring 24.1 points per game, good for 10th in the league.
- Cleveland is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Nick Chubb is second in the league in yards rushing (904) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns with 11.
- Kareem Hunt has only breached 50 yards rushing one time this year, and he’s maxed out at four targets in a game to this point.
- Amari Cooper is 23rd in the league in target share (24.7%) and 15th in air yards share (36.4%).
- Donovan Peoples-Jones has six or more targets in four of his last six games.
- David Njoku is still listed as questionable as of this writing after missing two games. Before that, Njoku had six or more targets and at least 50 yards receiving in each of his last five games. Njoku had 70 yards receiving or more in four of those five games.
Bills Defense
- The Bills have allowed 16.8 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bills have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the 25th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Buffalo has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bills have allowed the 21st-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Bills vs. Browns
This is an odd game, as it’s being moved to a neutral site in Detroit. I actually viewed Buffalo’s weather situation as a positive for Cleveland due to its premium offensive line and running game. Now that it has been moved to an indoor venue in Detroit, that favors Buffalo’s pass-centric offense.
A bet on the Bills is a bet on Josh Allen’s offense playing their best, cleanest game in a month. Josh Allen has six interceptions over his last three games, which includes back-to-back losses to the Jets and Vikings. Allen is more than capable of getting back on track, but keep in mind that he's also dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow.
If you’re betting on the Bills, you are betting on Josh Allen shredding an underwhelming Browns' defense in an indoor game. You also get the benefit of Buffalo’s high-performing defense against Jacoby Brissett’s offense. Cleveland has a premium run game and a top-five level offensive line, but if Josh Allen has a spike game it’s going to be difficult for Jacoby Brissett to keep up against this Bills' defense. If you’re a Bills bettor, you want this game to look a lot like Miami’s 39-17 win over Cleveland last week. Two concerns with a Buffalo bet are that it is coming off a chaotic overtime game and it now has to unexpectedly travel for a home game.
A bet on the Browns is a bet on their premium offensive line and high-end running game having consistent success against the Bills' top notch defense. Jacoby Brissett has played very well in relief duty this season, but expecting him to go punch-for-punch with Josh Allen in a high-scoring game is a big ask.
Cleveland’s defense is among the more disappointing groups in football, as this unit has way too much talent to be giving up the second-most points in the league. We recently saw the Browns' defense have a ceiling game against the high-powered Bengals. If you’re a Browns bettor you don’t quite need that level of a performance, but Cleveland has a narrow path to covering if Buffalo hangs 30 plus points against them.
Awards Market Ramifications: Josh Allen is an MVP contender. Stefon Diggs and Nick Chubb are Offensive Player of the Year contenders.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Buffalo in winner pools and I’m going to rank this game right in line with consensus.
Spread Pool: I was going to take Cleveland ATS until the venue was moved to Detroit. Now I’m going to stay away from this game ATS, but I’m now considering a play on the over.
Survivor Pool: Buffalo is a solid choice in survivor pools, as they are significant favorites that will have to lose three games in a row for you to get knocked out. That said, Cleveland is a dangerous underdog, as it has difference-makers throughout its roster.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: Are Interceptions Contagious?
