Betting
11/19/22
7 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bengals at Steelers
Bengals (5-4) at Steelers (3-6)
Opening Spread: Steelers +5
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (18.25), Bengals (23.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Steelers +5.
- This line has moved down to Steelers +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Steelers +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Steelers +4.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 40.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Steelers: Out: CB Ahkello Witherspoon, William Jackson III.
Bengals: Out: WR Ja’Marr Chase, DT D.J. Reader, DT Josh Tupou, CB Chidobe Awuzie.
The Steelers Offense vs. Bengals Defense
The Steelers have a bottom-tier offensive line. While the Bengals have a below-average front. Neither team has a macro edge in the trenches. That said, Bengals edge Trey Hendrickson has an individual matchup advantage against Pittsburgh’s offensive tackles.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Steelers are 4-4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Steelers are 3-6 on overs this season.
- Kenny Pickett is 3-3 against the spread in his career.
- Kenny Pickett is 2-4 on overs in his career.
- Mike Tomlin is 127-118-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Tomlin is 109-138-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Steelers Offense
- The Steelers are scoring 15.6 points per game, which is second to last in the league.
- Pittsburgh is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Najee Harris has breached 50 yards rushing in four of his nine games. Accordingly, Harris has yet to breach 100 yards rushing this season, but he 99 yards on the ground against the Saints last week.
- Diontae Johnson has a 25,9% target share and a 35.4% air yards share.
- After a streak of five games with six-to-eight targets in each contest, George Pickens has a total of seven targets over the last two games.
- Among tight ends Pat Freiermuth is ninth in receptions (36), seventh in yards receiving (403), sixth in target share (19.2%), and sixth in air yards share (17.7%).
Bengals Defense
- The Bengals have allowed 20.6 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the tenth-fewest yards rushing per game and the seventh-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cincinnati has given up the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bengals have allowed the twelth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Bengals Offense vs. Steelers Defense
The Bengals have a below-average offensive line. Now that T.J. Watt is back, the Steelers have a top-five front. Pittsburgh’s pass rush ransacked the Bengals on opening day, sacking Joe Burrow seven times. The Steelers front has a major advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 6-3 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 3-5-1 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 21-14 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 17-16-2 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 31-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 26-30-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Bengals Offense
- The Bengals are scoring 25.3 points per game, good for sixth in the league.
- In the league, Cincinnati is fourth in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Joe Mixon went postal in his last game with 153 yards rushing, four touchdowns, 58 yards receiving and an additional touchdown against the Panthers. It was the first time Mixon breached 100 yards rushing this season.
- Tee Higgins has made at least six targets in seven of eight games this season. The lone game that he didn’t reach that mark was against the Steelers on opening day, where he had two targets. Higgins has a 17.7% target share and a 26.1% air yards share.
- Tyler Boyd has been a spike game player this season as he’s breached 100 yards receiving twice. Boyd has had fewer than 50 yards receiving in six of his nine games. Boyd has a 14.6% target share and a 21.1% air yards share.
- Hayden Hurst has had at least four targets in seven of nine games. Hurst has a 14.3% target share and a 9.8% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Tee Higgins has played 297 snaps on the perimeter and 81 in the slot.
- Tyler Boyd has played 90 snaps on the perimeter and 381 in the slot.
Steelers Defense
- The Steelers have allowed only 23 points per game sitting at 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the twelfth-fewest yards rushing per game and the ninth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Pittsburgh has given up the third-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- They have also given up the ninth most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the second-most to slot receivers.
- The Steelers have allowed the thirteenth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Steelers vs. Bengals
Joe Burrow’s Bengals beat Pittsburgh twice last year. Despite losing on opening day to the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s pass rush dominated that most recent contest.
A bet on the Steelers is a bet on their defensive front dominating their divisional rivals for the second time this season. T.J. Watt is back and the Bengals offensive line struggled mightily during a recent loss to the Browns. The Steelers have had a brutal schedule since Kenny Pickett took over: vs. Jets, at Bills, vs. Bucs, at Dolphins, at Eagles before beating the Saints last week. The Bengals defense has been a very solid defense this season, but Cincinnati has the worst front that Pickett has faced as a pro. I wouldn’t bank on a ceiling game from Pickett, but there is a better chance for the Steelers to exceed expectations on offense this week than there has been since Pickett took over. You have two core concerns as a Steelers bettor. The first is that their offense continues to be underwhelming. The second is that Cincinnati has a better game plan to help deal with the Steelers front and Joe Burrow does Joe Burrow things for 60 minutes.
A bet on the Bengals always starts as a bet on Joe Burrow’s offense. Cincinnati is still down Ja’Marr Chase, but this offense is more than capable of at least meeting expectations with their current supporting cast. The Bengals defense has been a rock-solid unit this year giving up 21 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season. The Bengals are in a good position to limit the Steelers struggling offense. You have one major concern as a Bengals bettor, and that’s the Steelers pass rush. That group dominated the opening day contest between these two teams. Since the Bengals offensive line is still struggling at the mid-way point of the season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Steelers front was the difference against Cincinnati once again.
Awards Market Ramifications: Joe Burrow is a fringe MVP contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to get exposure to both of these teams in winner pools, but I will have more Bengals entries than Steelers entries in that format. I expect to be under consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I am still very undecided on this game against the spread, but I expect to be overweight on this contest in DFS this weekend. I think this game has more scoring potential than most do.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: How Joe Mixon Can Excel in Bengals Pass-First Offense
