Betting

NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bears vs. Falcons

Predictions for Bears vs. Falcons

Bears (3-7) at Falcons (4-6)

Opening Spread: Falcons -3

Opening Game Total: 49

Opening Team Totals: Falcons (26), Bears (23)

Weather: Dome

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Falcons -3.
  • This line has moved to Falcons -3.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Falcons -3.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Falcons -3.
  • This total opened at 49 points.
  • This total has moved to 50.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Falcons: Questionable: CB A.J. Terrell

Bears: Out: RB Khalil Herbert; Questionable: TE Cole Kmet, RG Teven Jenkins, Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad

The Falcons Offense vs. Bears Defense

The Falcons have a league-average type of offensive line. Chicago has a bottom-tier front. Atlanta’s offensive line has a mild advantage in this trench matchup.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Falcons are 6-4 against the spread this season.
  • The Falcons are 6-4 on overs this season.
  • Marcus Mariota is 39-41-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Marcus Mariota is 46-35-1 on overs in his career.
  • Arthur Smith is 12-14-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Arthur Smith is 13-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Falcons Offense

  • The Falcons are scoring 23.2 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
  • Atlanta is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
  • Marcus Mariota has 40 or more yards rushing in five of his 10 games played.
  • Per the Edge, Cordarrelle Patterson had only five carries and one target on Thursday Night Football at Carolina last week.
  • Drake London has five or more targets in each of his last three games.
  • Kyle Pitts has seven or more targets in each of his last three games.

Bears Defense

  • The Bears have allowed 24.7 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the eighth-most yards rushing per game and the 16th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Chicago has given up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Bears have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

The Bears Offense vs. Falcons Defense

The Bears have a bottom-tier offensive line. The Falcons have a below-average front, but DT Grady Jarrett presents an individual matchup problem against most opponents. Neither side has a trench advantage from a macro sense, though Jarrett has a significant individual matchup advantage in this contest.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Bears are 4-5-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Bears are 6-4 on overs this season.
  • Justin Fields is 8-13-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Justin Fields is 10-12 on overs in his career.
  • Matt Eberflus is 4-5-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Matt Eberflus is 6-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Bears Offense

  • The Bears are scoring 21.7 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
  • Chicago is last in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Justin Fields 749 yards rushing is sixth in the league.
  • Fields has breached 100 yards rushing in each of his last two games and has 80 or more in four of his last five games.
  • Among running backs Khalil Herbert is 10th in yards rushing and David Montgomery is 28th.
  • Now that Herbert is sidelined, we can expect Montgomery to see 20 or more opportunities per game. No. 203 pick Trestan Ebner is now Montgomery’s direct backup.
  • Darnell Mooney’s 27.9% target share is 11th in the league while his 36.2% air yards share is 16th.
  • After a promising debut with six targets, Chase Claypool was only targeted twice during last week’s shootout with the Lions.
  • Cole Kmet has nine catches on 13 targets for 115 yards receiving and four touchdowns over his last two games.

Falcons Defense

  • The Falcons have allowed 25 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing per game and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Atlanta has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • Atlanta has given up the second-most PPR points to perimeter receivers and the third-most to slot receivers.
  • The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Falcons vs. Bears

Moreover, a bet on the Falcons is a bet on a team that’s still very much alive in the NFC South race. As odd as it is to say, the 4-6 Falcons have overachieved at this point in the season. They have been an unorthodox run heavy team that has continued to establish itself regardless of game script. That level of predictability is a big reason why the Panthers beat them 25-15 during Week 10’s installment of Thursday Night Football.

If You’re Betting On the Falcons

Consequently, if you’re betting on Atlanta, you are either betting on their run-centric offense continuing to find success against a beatable Bears’ front or you are expecting Atlanta to start mixing it up more on offense. If you’re expecting them to mix things up, the Falcons have two young, blue chip pass catchers in Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have the raw materials to be a more balanced offense. Defensively, Atlanta is a below-average group that’s tasked with limiting Justin Fields and Chicago’s own run-centric offense. The Falcons’ ability to slow down red-hot Justin Fields and Chicago’s ascending offense are your biggest concerns as a Falcons bettor.

Betting on the Bears

Chicago has lost their last three games, however its scored 29 or more points in each of their last four contests. A bet on the Bears is a bet on their ascending, run-centric offense continuing to exceed expectations. Justin Fields, in particular, has gone absolutely nuclear as a runner the last couple of weeks. Furthermore, his historic production in that phase is eventually going to slow down. It wouldn’t be a major surprise if Fields’ success continued against a very beatable Falcons’ defense.

Two Concerns as a Bears Bettor

Accordingly, you have two core concerns as a Bears bettor. The first is that Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has the ability to give Fields as much trouble as Dexter Lawrence did earlier in the season. The second is the Bears have given up 115 total points during their three-game skid. Additionally, I wouldn’t call the Falcons a high-powered offense. The Falcons don’t have to be, to play high-end offense to have success against Chicago’s struggling defense.

Awards Market Ramifications: None

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will have a little exposure to both teams in winner pools.  Nonetheless, the Falcons might end up being a favorite with lower selection rates than the underdog Bears in some pools. I’m going to treat this game as more of a coin flip in my confidence rankings.

Spread Pool: As I mentioned on Betting the NFL, my goal was to talk myself out of a Bears bet this week. I’ve been able to do that. If you’re picking every game ATS, Chicago +3.5 is likely going to be pretty chalky in home leagues. In that kind of environment, I might actually take Atlanta just to get switch it up.

Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 32-18

Props 2022: 34-18

WATCH MORE: Bears Learning What Works for Justin Fields

 

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