Analysis

11/20/22

8 min read

NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for 49ers at Cardinals

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo

MNF: 49ers (5-4) at Cardinals (4-6) 

Opening Spread: Cardinals +7.5

Opening Game Total: 43.5.

Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (18), 49ers (25.5).

Weather: Dome at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. 

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Cardinals +7.5.
  • This line remains at Cardinals +7.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cardinals +7.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cardinals +8.
  • This total opened at 43.5 points.
  • This total remains at 43.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Cardinals:

Out: TE Zach Ertz, LT D.J. Humphries, LG Justin Pugh, C Rodney Hudson, RG Will Hernandez, CB Byron Murphy Jr, WR Marquise Brown

Questionable: QB Kyler Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins, LG Max Garcia.

49ers:

Out: DL Arik Armstead, DT Javon Kinlaw, CB Jason Verrett.

Questionable: Edge Samson Ebukam.

The Cardinals Offense vs. 49ers Defense

The Cardinals have a bottom-tier offensive line that is down their starters at left tackle, left guard, center and right guard. At full strength, the 49ers front is a top-five-level unit. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they are still down both of their primary defensive tackles, making them more of a fringe top -10 front. Despite being reduced by injury, San Francisco’s defensive front still has a significant advantage against the Cardinals' injury-ravaged offensive line.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Cardinals are 5-5 against the spread this season.
  • Arizona is 5-4-1 on overs this season.
  • Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 28-25-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Murray is 24-29-2 on overs in his career.
  • Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury is 31-26-2 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
  • Kingsbury is 27-30-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.

Cardinals Offense

  • The Cardinals are scoring 23 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
  • Arizona is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
  • If Murray can’t suit up for this contest, Colt McCoy will be the Cardinals' quarterback.
  • McCoy threw for 238 yards passing with a 70.3% completion percentage during last week’s victory against the Rams.
  • Per the Edge, a week removed from his return from injury, RB James Conner had 21 carries and three targets last week.
  • WR DeAndre Hopkins has only played in four games this season, but he has double-digit targets in three of them. Hopkins’ 32.9% target share leads the league and his 46.4% air yards share is second.
  • WR Rondale Moore has 31 targets during his last three games. Moore has eight or more targets in five of his last six games.
  • With TE Zach Ertz sidelined, the No. 55 overall pick, and Mackey Award winner Trey McBride is in line for major role expansion.

49ers Defense

  • San Francisco has allowed 18.1 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs.
  • The 49ers have given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • San Francisco has allowed the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season. 

The 49ers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

The 49ers have a fringe top-10 offensive line headlined by elite left tackle Trent Williams. Arizona has a slightly below-average defensive front. This trench matchup is a relative draw between these two familiar opponents.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The 49ers are 4-5 against the spread this season.
  • San Francisco is 3-6 on overs this season.
  • 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 42-28-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Garoppolo is 36-33-2 on overs in his career.
  • 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is 43-46-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
  • Shanahan is 44-44-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.

49ers Offense

  • San Francisco is scoring 22 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
  • The 49ers are 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge after 18 carries and nine targets against the Rams before the 49ers’ bye, RB Christian McCaffrey saw 14 carries and six targets against the Chargers.
  • RB Elijah Mitchell returned to action against the Chargers last week, tallying 18 carries and two targets.
  • McCaffrey and Mitchell should split carries most weeks, while McCaffrey takes on the bulk of the passing game work.
  • WR Deebo Samuel leads the 49ers with his 24.4% target share, and his 17.7% air yards share is second on the team.
  • Brandon Aiyuk’s 22.1% target share is second on the team, and his 29.9% air yards share is first.
  • WR Jauan Jennings has an 11.2% target share and a 9.8% air yards share.
  • TE George Kittle is third in target share (18.2%) and air yards share (16.4%).
  • Per TruMedia, McCaffrey is second in the league in yards after the catch and Samuel is 10th.
  • Kittle has played 267 snaps as an inline tight end, 24 on the perimeter and 93 in the slot.

Cardinals Defense

  • Arizona has allowed 25.8 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Cardinals have allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the 10th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Arizona has given up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the third most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the most to tight ends lined up in the slot.

This is What You’re Betting On in Cardinals vs. 49ers

This is the first time these division rivals have played this season. Arizona beat San Francisco in both of their games last year. The first was a 17-10 home win, the other was a 31-17 victory in San Francisco. McCoy was the Cardinals' quarterback for that contest in San Francisco.

Right now, Murray is considered a game-time decision. While McCoy is a solid backup, Murray is a dynamic talent that raises the ceiling of this offense. Ertz and the Cardinals' starters at left tackle, left guard, center and right guard are all out for this matchup.

If you’re betting on the Cardinals, you are betting on a highly capable, but injury-ravaged offense with a clear disadvantage in the trenches. The Cardinals' defense has a number of quality players, but they are allowing the third most points in the league. Your biggest concern as a Cardinals bettor, apart from their litany of injuries on offense, is the 49ers stacked offense marches up and down the field on them all night.

A bet on the 49ers is a bet on one of the league’s best rosters that can win games in multiple ways. The 49ers are loaded on offense with an above-average offensive line and one of the best offensive play callers in the game. You could argue the 49ers' skill position group is the best and most complete in the league since they acquired McCaffrey.

If you’re betting on the 49ers, you are betting on their offense at least meeting expectations against a Cardinals defense allowing the third most points in the league. You’re also betting on the 49ers' defense against an injury-ravaged Cardinals offense. Murray and Hopkins have uncertain availability as of this writing.

Even if those three players can go, Arizona is down Ertz and almost their entire offensive line. If you’re betting on San Francisco, part of that bet is built on their trench advantage. Since you need the 49ers to beat the Cardinals by more than one score, San Francisco has the capacity to exceed expectations on both sides of the ball. Your biggest concern as a 49ers bettor is Garoppolo playing an uneven game while Murray’s mobility mitigates Arizona’s offensive line issues enough that their own stacked skill group exceeds expectations.

Depending on how these Cardinals' injuries shake out, I might have some interest in the total in this contest. I will discuss that stance on Monday’s installment of Betting the NFL.

Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year contender. Christian McCaffrey is a Comeback Player of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take San Francisco in winner pools, and I expect to be right in line with the consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: I’m debating the 49ers as a significant road favorite against the spread, but I have not pulled the trigger on that bet.

Survivor Pool: I still have the Ravens available in my main survivor pool entry, so I’m going with them. If I did not have Baltimore, San Francisco would be my next option if they were available.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 32-18

Props 2022: 34-18

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