Analysis
11/17/22
8 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions for Cowboys vs. Vikings
Cowboys (6-3) at Vikings (8-1)
Opening Spread: Vikings +2
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Vikings (22.75), Cowboys (24.75)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Vikings +2.
- This line has moved to Vikings +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick'Em has the Vikings +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Vikings +1.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total remains at 47.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Vikings: Out: CB Cameron Dantzler Sr. Questionable: WR Justin Jefferson, LT Christian Darrisaw, DL Dalvin Tomlinson, Edge Za'Darius Smith.
Cowboys: Questionable: RB Ezekiel Elliott, Edge DeMarcus Lawrence, LB Anthony Barr, CB Anthony Brown.
The Vikings Offense vs. the Cowboys Defense
To start it off, Minnesota has a fringe top-10 offensive line. Dallas has a top-five pass rush. The Cowboys pass rush has a slight advantage in this matchup if edge DeMarcus Lawrence can go. Similarly, if Vikings LT Christian Darrisaw misses this contest that would increase the Cowboys' advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Vikings are 4-4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Vikings are 5-4 on overs this season.
- Kirk Cousins is against the spread in his career.
- Kirk Cousins is on overs in his career.
- Kevin O'Connell is 4-4-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin O'Connell is 5-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Vikings Offense
- The Vikings are scoring 25.1 points per game, good for being eighth in the league.
- Minnesota is seventh in the league for yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Dalvin Cook's 727 yards rushing is eighth in the league. Cook is 25th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Justin Jefferson is fourth in the league in receptions (69), second in yards receiving (1060), seventh in target share (29.3%), and tied for sixth in air yards share (42%).
- Adam Thielen has yet to breach 75 yards receiving in a game this season.
- K.J. Osborn had 11 targets last week in Buffalo, the first time he's had double-digit targets in a game this season.
- In his two games as a Viking, T.J. Hockenson has 16 receptions for 115 yards receiving on 19 targets.
Cowboys Defense
- The Cowboys have allowed 18.2 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Dallas has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Cowboys have allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Cowboys Offense vs. the Vikings Defense
Dallas has a top-10 offensive line. The Vikings have a fringe top-10 front. Vikings DT Dalvin Tomlinson has missed multiple games and remains on the injury report. Vikings Edge Za'Darius Smith also remains on the injury report. If the Vikings front is at full strength, this trench matchup is a relative draw. If Tomlinson and Smith miss this contest, the Cowboys offensive line will have a slight edge in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 6-3 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 4-5 on overs this season.
- Dak Prescott is 50-36-3 against the spread in his career.
- Dak Prescott is 43-46 on overs in his career.
- Mike McCarthy is 136-105-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McCarthy is 134-110-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Cowboys Offense
- The Cowboys are scoring 23.4 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
- Dallas is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Tony Pollard broke 100 yards rushing in each of the last two games. Ezekiel Elliott missed both of those contests.
- Pollard has at least 80 yards rushing in five of his last seven games.
- Ezekiel Elliott has breached 80 yards rushing in one of his seven games this season. Elliot has at least 49 yards rushing in every game he's played this season.
- CeeDee Lamb is ninth in the league in receptions (53), 10th in yards receiving (706), second in target share (32.2%), and ninth in air yards share (41.3%).
- Michael Gallup has not breached 50 yards receiving this season, but he has at least six targets in three of his last four games.
- Dalton Schultz has five or more targets in each of his last three games.
- Per TruMedia, CeeDee Lamb has played 261 snaps on the perimeter and 239 in the slot.
Vikings Defense
- The Vikings have allowed 21.2 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the 14th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Minnesota has given up the third-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Minnesota has given up the sixth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth-most to slot receivers.
- The Vikings have allowed the 16th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You're Betting On in Cowboys vs. Vikings
Both of these rosters are pretty comparable. Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins are similar quarterbacks. They both have started for more than half the teams in the league, both have been consistently productive for years, despite underwhelming performances in the postseason. Cowboys and Vikings have good lines on both sides of the ball, just as both teams have quality skill position players.
A bet on the Vikings is a bet on an 8-1 team coming off an emotional overtime upset against the Bills in Buffalo last week. That game was pure chaos at times, but the Vikings showed they could hang with the best in the league in that contest. If you're betting on Minnesota, you're betting on this Vikings team who continue to defy doubters against other relevant opponents.
Three Concerns as a Vikings' Bettor
You have three significant concerns as a Vikings bettor. The first being Minnesota is in a reasonably obvious let down spot after their big win in Buffalo. The second is related to that thought, you need a good Kirk Cousins' game for the Vikings to walk away with a victory here. Your third biggest concern is that Minnesota's offensive line is facing another premium pass rush in Dallas this week. Collectively, a bet on the Vikings is essentially a bet on Kirk Cousins in a semi-high-pressure game. I don't expect it to come here, but even after last week's win, the Vikings offense still haven't had a ceiling game this season.
What to Expect as a Cowboys' Bettor
A bet on the Cowboys is a bet on a road team with a few positional group advantages against a similarly talented Vikings roster. Dallas is not in desperate need of a win, but they need a win more than Minnesota, as the Cowboys are currently third in the NFC East. Dallas and Minnesota played overtime games last week, which means that both teams are playing with that extra challenge. On the Cowboys side, I don't really view this as a bounce-back spot, but giving up a two-score lead late led to them losing to Aaron Rodgers' Packers.
We can reasonably expect Dallas to be laser-focused heading into this contest. My biggest concern with a Cowboys bet is if DeMarcus Lawrence is on the injury report. If he misses this contest, that reduces the ceiling of the Cowboys pass rush. If I'm betting on Dallas, I'm betting on Kirk Cousins having some negative moments against a premium pass rush in a semi-high-pressure game.
Cowboys vs. Vikings Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons is the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner. Justin Jefferson is the current Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner. Kevin O'Connell is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I'm going to take Dallas in winner pools, and I expect that I will be above consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I bet Dallas earlier this week and I intend to take them in my main ATS pool this weekend.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided for survivor purposes.
Bank it With Tank: Cowboys at Vikings
Ryan's recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: Minnesota Vikings WR KJ Osborn demands that you put some respect on his quarterback's name.
