Germany: Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)
Opening Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (23.5), Seahawks (21).
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers -2.5.
- This line moved to Buccaneers -3 but is back to Buccaneers -2.5 at several books.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers -3.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
Out: WR Russell Gage, LG Luke Goedeke, Edge Shaquil Barrett.
Questionable: WR Mike Evans,
Out: S Jamal Adams.
Questionable: WR Marquise Goodwin, S Ryan Neal.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
Tampa’s offensive line is strong at both tackles and at right guard, but they have vulnerabilities at center and left guard. Seattle has a bottom-tier front, though they have played above their talent level a few times this season. Seattle lacks the premium talent to exploit the Buccaneers’ interior vulnerabilities. Tampa has a mild edge in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Buccaneers are 2-6-1 against the spread this season.
- Tampa Bay is 2-7 on overs this season.
- Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is 186-129-12 against the spread in his career.
- Brady is 169-156-2 on overs in his career.
- Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles is 34-37-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Bowles is 37-39 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
- Tampa Bay is scoring 18 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- The Buccaneers are fifth in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Leonard Fournette has breached 50 yards rushing in four of his nine games. Fournette ran for more than 100 yards on opening day against Dallas. That is the only time he’s breached that number this season.
- Fournette has at least six targets in five of his last seven games.
- Props are not yet out for this contest, but if Fournette’s over/ under receptions number is in the 2.5 to 3.5 range, I’m jumping on that in this matchup. If that number opens at 4.5, that’s more of a decision.
- WR Mike Evans has double-digit targets in each of his last three games.
- WR Chris Godwin has double-digit targets in each of his last four games, and in five of his last six.
- TE Cameron Brate is off the injury report, which could lead to a more volatile role for rookie tight end Cade Otton.
- Seattle is allowing 24.4 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the 14th most yards rushing per game and the third most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Seattle has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- Seattle has allowed the sixth most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Seahawks Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
Without edge Shaquil Barrett, the Buccaneers have an average front. Seattle has a fringe top-10 offensive line. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 6-3 against the spread this season.
- Seattle is 5-4 on overs this season.
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith is 32-21-2 against the spread in his career.
- Smith is 27-27-1 on overs in his career.
- Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is 108-87-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Carroll is 101-98-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Seattle is scoring 26.8 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- The Seahawks are 14th in the league in yards passing per game and 10th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Seattle rookie RB Kenneth Walker III has run for at least 88 yards rushing in four of his last five games. Walker has at least one rushing touchdown in each of those contests.
- WR DK. Metcalf has a 24.8% target share and a 37% air yards share.
- WR Tyler Lockett has a 24.1% target share and a 34.8% air yards share.
- TEs Noah Fant and Will Dissly are both seeing significant playing time, though Fant’s target share has risen to 12.4% against Dissly’s 9.5% figure.
- Per TruMedia, Fant has played 196 snaps as an inline tight end, 36 on the perimeter and 78 in the slot.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 18.2 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Buccaneers have allowed the 11th most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tampa Bay has given up the 22nd most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the 11th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- Tampa Bay has allowed the third most yards receiving per game to tight ends in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
This is an interesting contest from a betting perspective. First, you have the layer of variance that comes with any game played in Europe. As a West Coast team, Seattle’s time zone swing is three hours more than Tampa’s. Both teams have veteran leadership that has handled this abnormal type of environment in the past. Seattle has Carroll while the Buccaneers have Tom Brady. Both teams are highly motivated as division leaders.
Another factor is something The 33rd Team analyst Chris Farley mentioned, which is Seattle is actually better equipped to surge back if they fall behind than Tampa is. Few would have thought that entering the season, but that’s a reasonable point.
A bet on the Buccaneers is a bet on a Brady team that just ended their three-game losing streak after beating the Rams last week. Brady’s offense has struggled all year, but this will be the first time this season they face a team that doesn’t have a premium pass rusher. Additionally, you could argue Brady is the best checkdown passer ever, which is a positive against Seattle’s style of defense.
Apart from a game against the Chiefs earlier this season, the Buccaneers defense has been good. If you’re betting on Tampa Bay, your most realistic stance is for Brady’s offense to have an above-average outing against an overachieving Seattle defense while Tampa’s own defense holds up against Seattle’s balanced attack. Your biggest concern as a Bucs bettor is Smith’s offense outperforming Brady’s. That would have been borderline unthinkable heading into opening day, but it’s a real concern now.
A bet on the Seahawks is a bet on a well-balanced offense that does everything well. While Smith has been much better than anyone outside of Seattle anticipated, Seattle’s offensive line has also been better than expected. Seattle can beat you on the ground, as well as in the air. Tampa’s run defense has been among the best in the league throughout the last few years. That isn’t the case this season.
Seattle’s defense has been quietly overachieving for a few years now. From a talent perspective, this is a beatable group, as we saw the Saints and the Lions combine for 84 points during a two-game stretch in early October. Since then, Seattle is 4-0 while allowing 23-points or less in each of those contests.
If you’re betting on Seattle, you’re betting on their defense continuing to play well against a struggling Buccaneers defense. You have two core concerns as a Seahawks bettor. The first is Brady’s offense starts to get rolling against a Seahawks defense that is playing a bit over their heads. The second is Smith plays his first inefficient game of the season against a Buccaneers defense that could sit on top of the NFC South on their own with a win.
Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith is the current Comeback Player of the Year favorite. Kenneth Walker III is the current Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite. Pete Carroll is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I play in a number of winner pools, so I will take the Seahawks a few times in that format. That said, I will have Tampa Bay selected in more of those contests. I’m going to rank this game as low as I reasonably can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I tend to bet on regression spots like this, so while I haven’t pulled the trigger on Tampa at this point, that’s the side I’d take at -2.5 if I bet this game directly.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
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