Analysis
11/11/22
8 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Opening Spread: Chiefs -9.5.
Opening Game Total: 49.5.
Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (29.5), Jaguars (20).
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chiefs -9.5.
- This line remains at Chiefs -9.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chiefs -9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chiefs -9.5.
- This total opened at 49.5 points.
- This total has moved to 50.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Chiefs:
Out: WR Mecole Hardman, Edge Frank Clark.
Jaguars:
Out: CB Shaquill Griffin.
Questionable: TE Evan Engram, S Rayshawn Jenkins.
The Chiefs Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
This is a strength vs. strength type of trench matchup as the Chiefs have a top-five offensive line while Jacksonville has a top-10 front. From a macro sense, this trench matchup is a relative draw. However, I’d give the Jaguars' edge duo a mild advantage, and I’d do the same for the Chiefs' interior.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 3-5 against the spread this season.
- Kansas City is 4-4 on overs this season.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 37-32-2 against the spread in his career.
- Mahomes is 38-32-1 on overs in his career.
- Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 193-161-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Reid is 177-173-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Chiefs Offense
- Kansas City is scoring 30.4 points per game, which is the most in the league.
- The Chiefs are first in the league in yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing.
- The Chiefs backfield has become a three-headed committee where rookie Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon are all seeing similar opportunities. McKinnon’s role is more passing game-centric.
- Per the Edge, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is 14th in the league in receptions (44) and yards receiving (582), yet his 18.8% target share is 54th in the league.
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scanting has run only four fewer routes (284 to 280) than Smith-Schuster, but Valdes-Scantling only has a 12.4% target share while being significantly less productive.
- WR Mecole Hardman’s absence should lead to more opportunities for Kadarius Toney and/or Skyy Moore.
- TE Travis Kelce is fifth in the league in receptions (57), he’s seventh in yards receiving (659) and he’s tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (7). Kelce’s 24.8% target share is 23rd in the league.
Jaguars Defense
- Jacksonville has allowed 19.8 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 26th most yards rushing and the fourth most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- Jacksonville has given up the 14th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jaguars have allowed the 18th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Jaguars Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
This is another strength vs. strength type of trench matchup. The Chiefs have a fringe-top-10 front while Jacksonville has a top-10-level offensive line. Chiefs edge Frank Clark will miss this contest, which reduces the ceiling of Kansas City’s pass rush. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense, while Chiefs DT Chris Jones presents a matchup issue against virtually anyone.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 3-6 against the spread this season.
- Jacksonville is 4-5 on overs this season.
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is 8-18 against the spread in his career.
- Lawrence is 9-17 on overs in his career.
- Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is 41-48 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Pederson is 43-46 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Jaguars Offense
- Jacksonville is scoring 22.1 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- The Jaguars are 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Travis Etienne has breached 100 yards rushing and scored at least once in each of his last three games. Etienne has at least three targets in six of his nine games.
- WR Christian Kirk has 26 targets over his last three games. Kirk has breached 70 yards receiving in five of his nine games.
- Zay Jones has at least five targets in six of his eight games. Jones has double-digit targets twice this season.
- WR Marvin Jones breached 100 yards receiving against the Texans in early October. Otherwise, he’s had less than 40 yards receiving in five of his eight games. Jones has been held to zero yards receiving in two games this year.
- TE Evan Engram has six or more targets in four of his last five games.
- Per TruMedia, Kirk is third in the league with 340 slot snaps. Kirk has played 158 snaps on the perimeter.
- Engram has played 187 snaps as an inline tight end, 87 on the perimeter, and 151 in the slot.
Chiefs Defense
- Kansas has allowed 23.6 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 22nd most yards rushing per game and the second most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the eighth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Chiefs are giving up the sixth most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- Kansas City has allowed the tenth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed the second most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Chiefs vs. Jaguars
A bet on the Chiefs always starts as a bet on Reid and Mahomes. I’d argue Mahomes is having his best season in some ways. The Jaguars have a pretty good-looking defense driven by their fast front. The Jaguars' secondary, however, is more of a solid middle-of-the-road unit. If you’re betting on the Chiefs, you are betting on Mahomes at least meeting expectations against the Jaguars' beatable secondary.
Since the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites, Mahomes shredding the Jaguars is nearly a requirement to cover that number. Your biggest concern as a Chiefs' bettor is this ends up being a statement game for Lawrence, similar to how last year’s Bengals vs. Chiefs matchup was for Joe Burrow. The Jaguars have less firepower on offense than the Bengals, but Lawrence is a historic quarterback prospect that’s shown some flashes in his second season.
A bet on the Jaguars is a bet on a young team that’s a sneaky tough matchup for the Chiefs in a number of areas. First, the Chiefs do not have a trench advantage on either side of the ball in this matchup, as the Jaguars have top-10 lines on offense and defense. Kansas City has been shredded by running backs in the passing game, and Jacksonville has an ascending difference-maker at running back in Etienne. Kansas City’s defense also struggles in the slot, where the Jaguars have a rock-solid option in Kirk. Engram is a plus athlete at the tight end position, and he sees a significant amount of his reps out of the slot as well.
The Jaguars aren’t dead in the AFC South race, either. Tennessee continues to deal with significant injuries to impact players, while the Colts are currently marching out a USFL-level quarterback in Sam Ehlinger. The Jaguars are highly motivated, and they have the tools to make this a game. You have two core concerns as a Jaguars bettor. The first is Mahomes just shreds the Jaguars' secondary after an underwhelming performance last Sunday night. Your second is Lawrence’s offense simply can’t keep pace.
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is an MVP contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Jaguars in at least one of my winner pools with weekly payouts. I expect to be lower than the consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I haven’t directly bet on it yet, but I’m considering the Jaguars +9.5.
Survivor Pool: DraftKings' million-dollar survivor pool has somewhere between 200 and 300 live entries. I have one entry remaining in that contest. I’m leaning toward taking the 49ers instead of the Chiefs with that entry. I cannot take the Eagles or Dolphins with that entry.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
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