Analysis
11/9/22
9 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Falcons vs. Panthers
Thursday Night Football: Atlanta Falcons (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)
Opening Spread: Panthers +3.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Panthers (20.25), Falcons (23.25).
Weather: Outdoors, rain is expected with sustained winds between 15 and 25 mph.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Panthers +3.
- This line has moved to Panthers +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Panthers +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest releases their lines Thursday afternoon.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total remains at 43.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Panthers:
Out: C Pat Elflein, S Jeremy Chinn.
Questionable: RT Taylor Moton, DT Matt Ioannidis.
Falcons:
Out: LG Matt Hennessy, CB Casey Hayward, CB A.J. Terrell.
The Panthers Offense vs. the Falcons Defense
The Panthers' offensive line is a slightly below-average unit. The Falcons' front is a below-average unit as a whole. This trench matchup is a relative draw. However, Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett presents a matchup problem against virtually every opponent.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 3-6 against the spread this season.
- The Panthers are 4-5 on overs this season.
- Panthers QB PJ Walker is 5-9 against the spread in his career.
- Walker is 7-7 on overs in his career.
- Panthers interim coach Steve Wilks is 9-10-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Wilks is 9-11 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Panthers Offense
- Carolina is scoring 19.9 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- The Panthers are 27th in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing.
- Walker has played in five games this season, but he’s only taken all of the quarterback snaps in two of them.
- Per the Edge, Walker threw for 317 yards passing against the Falcons earlier this year.
- Walker was pulled for Baker Mayfield last week against the Bengals.
- Walker is getting the start this week, but there is a real possibility he’ll be pulled again if the Panthers' offense struggles.
- After back-to-back games with 118 yards rushing, D’Onta Foreman only had seven carries for 23 yards rushing last week. Chuba Hubbard is set to return this week.
- WR D.J. Moore has at least six targets in every game this season and double-digit targets in three games.
- Moore had six receptions for 152 yards receiving and a score when he faced Atlanta earlier this year.
- WR Terrace Marshall has emerged as the second option in this passing attack, seeing 15 total targets during the last two games.
- Per TruMedia, Moore has played 348 snaps on the perimeter and 126 in the slot.
Falcons Defense
- Atlanta has allowed 25 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- The Falcons are last in net yards passing allowed per game and eighth in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Atlanta is 30th in the league in sacks with 12 and seventh in interceptions with eight.
- Per The Edge, the Falcons are allowing the 17th-most yards rushing and the 17th-most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- The Falcons have given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Atlanta has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fourth-most to those in the slot.
- The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Falcons Offense vs. the Panthers Defense
From a macro sense, this is a pretty even trench matchup. Both of these lines are right in that average to below-average tier. However, Panthers edge defender Brian Burns presents a challenge on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Falcons are 6-3 against the spread this season.
- Atlanta is 6-3 on overs this season.
- Falcons QB Marcus Mariota is 39-40-2 against the spread in his career.
- Mariota is 46-34-1 on overs in his career.
- Falcons coach Arthur Smith is 12-13-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Smith is 13-13 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Falcons Offense
- Atlanta is scoring 24.1 points per game, good for ninth in the league.
- The Falcons are 30th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Mariota's 308 yards rushing is sixth among quarterbacks.
- Mariota had 43 yards rushing on six carries against the Panthers earlier this season.
- Mariota has breached 200 yards passing in three of his nine games.
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson returned to action last week, producing 44 yards rushing and two scores on 13 carries.
- Rookie RB Tyler Allgeier filled in behind Patterson with 10 carries, while Caleb Huntley had seven against the Chargers last week.
- Atlanta tends to remain run-centric even when they are in a negative game script, so all three backs may continue to see a notable amount of carries.
- WR Drake London hasn’t breached 50 yards receiving in a game since Week 3.
- TE Kyle Pitts has eclipsed 80 yards receiving twice this season, but he’s been held below 30 yards receiving in his six other contests.
- London and Pitts’ production struggles can be primarily attributed to the Falcons' low-volume passing attack.
Panthers Defense
- Carolina has allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- The Panthers are 21st in net yards passing allowed per game and 28th in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Carolina is 27th in the league in sacks with 14 and 16th in interceptions with six.
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the 10th-most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- Carolina has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers.
- The Panthers have given up the ninth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- Carolina has allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends.
This is What You’re Betting On in Falcons vs. Panthers
These two teams just played each other in Week 8. The Falcons beat the Panthers 37-34 in overtime. Walker threw a nearly impossible 62-yard touchdown pass to Moore in the final seconds of regulation to tie the game. Moore took his helmet off, which resulted in a penalty that pushed the point after attempt back. Carolina missed said PAT and ultimately lost in overtime.
This contest looks like it will play differently, as there will be rain and the current sustained wind projections are high enough they could impact the passing game. These weather conditions might actually help the Falcons, given their run-centric approach on offense and their league-worst pass defense.
A bet on the Panthers is a bet on a below-average roster with an interim head coach and a third-string quarterback. Walker was pulled last week against the Bengals for Mayfield, which is something we have to account for in a Panthers bet. If Carolina struggles on offense or falls behind early, there is a real chance Mayfield will finish this game at quarterback.
As much as I’m not a Mayfield guy, he’s a better player than Walker. The Falcons try to beat you with their running game, and they aren’t shy about it. Despite that, the Panthers gave up 37 points to the Falcons when they met in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. If you’re betting on the Panthers here, you are betting on a much better performance out of their defense.
A bet on the Falcons is a bet on a run-centric team in at least a borderline adverse weather game. Rain doesn’t concern me too much unless it has enough volume to impact the field’s quality. The wind component of this game, however, is something that could help the Falcons. Their pass defense is their biggest weakness, and they want to run the ball as much as they can in a normal game.
If I’m betting on Atlanta in this contest, I’m betting on their run-centric approach being a benefit in this type of weather. I’m also betting against the Panthers' entire situation, as they have an interim head coach and a lot of volatility at the quarterback position. Atlanta is also tied for the NFC South lead right now, making them a highly motivated team.
Per TruMedia, during the last 155 games played on Thursday Night Football, home teams are 82-69-4 ATS during that span. On average, home teams have covered by just shy of one point while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points during this sample. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.
Falcons vs. Panthers Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to get a little exposure to the Panthers in winner pools, but I’m going to take Atlanta more often than not in that format. I’m going to rank this game as close to the bottom as I can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: This is one of those contests where I prefer the Panthers from a sports betting slant, but I prefer the Falcons from a pure football perspective. Therefore, I’m going to stay away from this one.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Start Cordarrelle Patterson Thursday Night.
