Analysis
11/11/22
9 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Cowboys vs. Packers
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-6)
Opening Spread: Packers +5.
Opening Game Total: 43.
Opening Team Totals: Packers (19), Cowboys (24)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Packers +5.
- This line has moved to Packers +4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Packers +4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Packers +4.5.
- This total opened at 43 points.
- This total has moved up slightly to 43.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Packers:
Out: WR Randall Cobb, WR Romeo Doubs, Edge Rashan Gary, CB Eric Stokes.
Questionable: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Allen Lazard, WR Sammy Watkins, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, RG Jon Runyan, Edge Preston Smith.
Cowboys:
Out: LT Tyron Smith, CB Jourdan Lewis.
Questionable: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Noah Brown, LB Anthony Barr, S Donovan Wilson.
The Packers Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari and left guard Elgton Jenkins are the two best players on Green Bay’s line. They’ve both missed time this year, and they both continue to be regulars on the injury report. Bakhtiari’s week-to-week availability has even been described as a fluid process.
I’ve been gradually moving this offensive line back for a few weeks, and I now have them square in the middle of the pack. They’ll draw a top-five Cowboys' pass rush led by Micah Parsons. Joe Banner thinks Parsons could position himself as the next Lawrence Taylor. Aaron Rodgers is an asset in pressure management, but he’s struggled against high-end fronts like this in the past. I’m treating this trench matchup as if the Cowboys have a moderate edge.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 3-6 against the spread this season.
- Green Bay is 3-6 on overs this season.
- Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 125-93-4 against the spread in his career.
- Rodgers is 113-107-2 on overs in his career.
- Packers QB Matt LaFleur is 35-23 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- LaFleur is 26-32 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Packers Offense
- Green Bay is scoring 17.1 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- The Packers 17th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Aaron Jones has less than 10 carries in three of his last four games. On the other hand, he’s had at least four targets in three of those four games, which includes a 10-target spike against the Commanders
- RB A.J. Dillon has at least 10 carries in three of his last four games. Dillon has four or more targets twice during that span.
- WR Allen Lazard has at least seven targets in each of his last five games.
- The No. 34 overall pick Christian Watson has had an injury-plagued first half of his rookie campaign. Watson is not a safe option in fantasy or betting, but he’s off the injury report currently.
- TE Robert Tonyan has at least four targets in his last five games. That includes a 12-target spike against the Jets in mid-October.
Cowboys Defense
- Dallas has allowed 16.6 points per game, which is third in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the 10th most yards rushing per game and the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Dallas has given up the 24th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Cowboys have allowed the 26th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Cowboys Offense vs. Packers Defense
The loss of Packers' edge Rashan Gary moves Green Bay’s front outside of the top 10 into fringe top-10 territory. The Cowboys offensive line started the season slowly, but they have played like a top-10 unit despite the absence of LT Tyron Smith for well over a month. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw, where Dallas has a significant advantage in the run game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 6-2 against the spread this season.
- Dallas is 3-5 on overs this season.
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 50-35-3 against the spread in his career.
- Prescott is 42-46 on overs in his career.
- Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy is 136-104-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- McCarthy is 133-110-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Cowboys Offense
- Dallas is scoring 22.9 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- The Cowboys are 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Ezekiel Elliott has at least 50 yards rushing in all but one of his seven games this season. However, he’s only breached 70 yards rushing three times, and he hasn’t breached 90 yards rushing at all.
- In RB Tony Pollard’s eight games this season he’s breached 80 yards rushing four times and 100 yards rushing twice. In the sole contest Elliott missed, Pollard ran for 131 yards rushing and three scores on 14 carries.
- WR CeeDee Lamb is third in the league in target share (31.7%) and he’s tenth in air yards share (39.7%).
- Since Prescott returned to action against Detroit, Lamb had six targets against the Lions and seven against the Bears.
- WR Michael Gallup had two targets against the Lions and six against the Bears.
- In the three games Prescott has played this season, TE Dalton Schultz has nine, five and seven targets in those contests.
Packers Defense
- Green Bay has allowed 20.9 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the third most yards rushing per game and the 18th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has given up the fourth fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Packers vs. Cowboys
A bet on the Packers is a bet on a team led by Rodgers team also on a five-game losing streak. Green Bay has the raw materials to give anyone a game, and their backs are completely against the wall now. While that’s interesting from a sports betting perspective, I have three core concerns about a Packers bet apart from this team’s lack of success this season.
The first is an enormous portion of the Packers’ starting lineup is either already ruled out or on the injury report for this contest. The second is they are getting a talented Dallas team coming off their bye, that has a high-level pass rush that could give Green Bay’s line some real problems. The third is that Dallas has a high-end run game behind a top-10 offensive line, and Green Bay has been absolutely killed on the ground this season. If you’re betting on Green Bay, your bet is built around a desperate team playing up against one of the NFC’s best teams. Considering Green Bay has struggled against some underwhelming opponents during this five-game losing streak, that’s not a small ask.
A bet on the Cowboys is a bet on a 6-2 team coming off their bye to face a struggling Packers team in Green Bay. Dallas has a trench advantage on defense, and they are well-equipped to run all over a Packers defense that has been killed on the ground this year. From a football sense, there are a number of paths to a Cowboys victory here. There are, however, two clear paths to Dallas falling below expectations in this matchup.
The first is Prescott tends to be a quarterback that shreds cupcakes while being more middling in big games or against quality pass defenses. While Green Bay struggles to stop the run, they are a good pass defense. The second path is this is a must-win game for Green Bay if they want to have any real shot at Wild Card contention. That’s been a thing for Green Bay for weeks now, and they underwhelmed against Washington and Detroit on the road. Still, Rodgers is getting more than a field goal at home in a must-win game.
Some will point to this as a revenge game of sorts for Dallas, but keep in mind the Dez Bryant playoff loss came in the playoffs after the 2014 regular season. Most of the roster wasn’t even in the league when that contest took place.
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: Green Bay warrants consideration as a differentiator option in winner pools. That said, Green Bay’s injury situation has me leaning toward taking Dallas in all of my entries in that format. I expect to be right around consensus on this option in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m going to pass on this game against the spread, as Dallas has multiple paths to victory while this is a do-or-die kind of game for Green Bay. When picking every game against the spread, I’m leaning toward Green Bay with the points.
Survivor Pool: I’m going to avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Bank It With Tank: Cowboys vs. Packers
