Betting
11/12/22
8 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Colts vs. Raiders
Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)
Opening Spread: Raiders -6.
Opening Game Total: 42.5.
Opening Team Totals: Raiders (24.25), Colts (18.25).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders -6.
- This line has moved down to Raiders -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Raiders -5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Raiders -6.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Raiders
Out: WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Darren Waller, OT Brandon Parker, CB Nate Hobbs. Questionable: LB Denzel Perryman.
Colts
Out: RB Deon Jackson, TE Jelani Woods, LB Shaquille Leonard. Questionable: TE Mo Alie-Cox, Edge Kwity Paye.
The Raiders Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Raiders have a below-average offensive line. You could say the same about the Colts' defensive front, though that group has a higher ceiling. This trench matchup is a relative draw, though the Colts' front has the potential to be problematic for Vegas.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 3-5 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 4-3-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 64-69-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 70-60-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 16-20 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 18-17-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Raiders Offense
- The Raiders are scoring 22.9 points per game, good for 14th in the league.
- Las Vegas is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs is fourth in the league in yards rushing. Among running backs, Jacobs is 17th in yards receiving.
- Davante Adams is eighth in the league in receptions (48) and yards receiving (658). Adams is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with seven. Adams is fourth in the league in target share (31.3%) and eighth in target share (42.1%).
- With Hunter Renfrow out, Mack Hollins sees a boost. Hollins has eight or more targets in three of eight games.
- With Darren Waller out, Foster Moreau continues to take over at tight end for Vegas. Moreau has at least four targets in all five of his games this year.
Colts Defense
- The Colts have allowed 20.3 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 16th most yards rushing per game and the fifth most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Indianapolis has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Colts have allowed the 12th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Colts Offense vs. Raiders Defense
Indianapolis has been unable to solve its offensive tackle problem this year. What I considered to be a good offensive line entering the season has been among the most disappointing groups to this point. The Colts are a bottom-tier offensive line. The Raiders' pass rush still has a ton of potential with their Edge duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. However, Las Vegas’s front has underwhelmed itself this season. From a macro sense, this trench matchup is a relative draw, though Vegas has a significant advantage on the edge.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Colts are 3-6 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 1-8 on overs this season.
- Sam Ehlinger is 3-2 against the spread in his career.
- Sam Ehlinger is 2-3 on overs in his career.
- Jeff Saturday is making his NFL coaching debut.
- Jeff Saturday is making his NFL coaching debut.
Colts Offense
- The Colts are scoring 14.7 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Indianapolis is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Sam Ehlinger has struggled mightily as expected. Ehlinger is starting this week, but Matt Ryan is off the injury report.
- Per the Edge, this has been a bit of a lost season for Jonathan Taylor who has only breached 100 yards rushing in one of his six games this year. Taylor’s passing game usage has been sporadic, but he’s seen seven or more targets twice this year.
- Michael Pittman Jr. has 15 total targets over the two games that Sam Ehlinger has started.
- Kylen Granson (154 routes run, 8.1% target share) and Mo Alie-Cox (146 routes run, 5.4% target share) are roughly splitting time as pass catchers.
Raiders Defense
- The Raiders have allowed 25.1 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 19th most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the ninth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Raiders have allowed the 14th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the fifth most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the ninth most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Raiders vs. Colts
This is an interesting game from a sports betting perspective. Indianapolis went out of its way to start one of my least favorite college quarterback prospects in recent memory way before they were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. They then fired their head coach, to bring on a former Colt that’s never coached in the NFL. Jeff Saturday was one of the centerpieces of the best era in Colts football in the last forty years. It makes sense to want today’s football culture to mimic that team’s football culture. That said, this is a tough spot for Saturday. It may even be unprecedented.
A bet on the Raiders starts as a bet against the entirety of this Colts situation. Vegas is facing an extremely volatile quarterback, who is playing behind an underachieving offensive line, that’s all being guided by a coaching staff that is truly figuring it out as they go. On top of that, while the Raiders have a below-average defense, the strength of that unit is their edge duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. If you’re betting on Vegas, you are betting on those two pass rushers making a major impact in this game. The Raiders' offense is down Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, leaving Derek Carr with Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and a number of role players. Your biggest concern with a Raiders bet is that the Colts are able to string together a turnover-free, run-heavy game plan while the Vegas offense stalls.
A bet on the Colts is a bet on one of two core outcomes. The first is the Colts come out with your traditional backup quarterback game plan while Jonathan Taylor has his best game since opening day. The Indianapolis offense doesn’t turn the ball over and they keep it close while their defense plays their best game in weeks against an injury-plagued Raiders skill group. The other path is that the Colts fall behind early, and Saturday replaces Ehlinger with Matt Ryan or Nick Foles, who then tear it up in relief duty. Your worst-case scenario if you’re a Colts bettor is that the Raiders offense comes out hot, jumping out to a two score lead, forcing Sam Ehlinger to play from behind while Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones have a field day as pass rushers.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Raiders in my winner pools. I expect to be near or slightly above consensus in my confidence rankings in this contest.
Spread Pool: I’m going to take the Raiders ATS this week, as I’m going to bet against situations like the Colts are in whenever they arise. That said, the prospect of a Matt Ryan or Nick Foles relief appearance creates another unwanted path for Raiders bettors. But ultimately, I want to bet against Sam Ehlinger while I still can.
Survivor Pool: The Raiders are an unstable team, which makes them more of an aggressive survivor pool option. I’m not opposed to using them, but I’m going to go in a different direction in my sole remaining DraftKings entry.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: How Raiders Should Approach Facing Colts Under New HC Jeff Saturday
