Betting
11/12/22
9 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Cardinals vs. Rams
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Los Angeles Rams (3-5)
Opening Spread: Rams -3.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Rams (23.25), Cardinals (20.25).
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Rams -3.
- This line has moved to as low as Rams -1.5. It's moved back up between Rams -2.5 and Rams -3.
- DraftKings Pick'Em has the Rams -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Rams -1.5.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Rams: Out: LT Joe Noteboom. Doubtful: LT Alaric Jackson, DT Greg Gaines. Questionable: QB Matthew Stafford, C Brian Allen.
Cardinals: Out: WR Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, LG Justin Pugh, LG Max Garcia, C Rodney Hudson, RG Will Hernandez. Questionable: QB Kyler Murray, LT D.J. Humphries, RG Cody Ford, Edge Dennis Gardeck, CB Byron Murphy, S Budda Baker.
The Rams Offense vs. the Cardinals Defense
The Rams have a bottom-tier offensive line that has been the driving force behind Los Angeles's struggles on offense. This week, they catch a bit of a break as they square off against a bottom-tier Cardinals front. Neither team has an advantage in the trenches here.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 2-5-1 against the spread this season.
- The Rams are 2-6 on overs this season.
- Matthew Stafford is 84-100-6 against the spread in his career.
- Matthew Stafford is 96-91-3 on overs in his career.
- Sean McVay is 45-41-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McVay is 41-47-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Rams Offense
- The Rams are scoring 16.4 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Los Angeles is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing.
- Matthew Stafford unexpectedly entered the concussion protocol mid-week. If Stafford can't go, John Wolford is set to take over. Wolford has thrown 42 regular season passes over his three-year career as a Ram. If Wolford plays, he brings some rushing upside.
- Last week against the Buccaneers, Darrell Henderson had 12 carries while Cam Akers had five.
- Per the Edge, Cooper Kupp is second in the league in receptions (72), fourth in yards receiving (813) and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns with six. Kupp leads the league in target share (33.6%), and his 39.1% air yards share is 13th.
- Allen Robinson has breached 50 yards receiving in three of his eight games this year.
- Van Jefferson has missed most of the season. Upon his return last week against the Bucs, he caught none of his five targets.
- Tyler Higbee started the season with a pretty high-volume role. Higbee has three receptions for 22 yards receiving over his last three games.
- Per TruMedia, Cooper Kupp has played 256 snaps on the perimeter and 146 in the slot.
- Tyler Higbee has played 292 snaps as an inline tight end, 83 on the perimeter and 53 in the slot.
Cardinals Defense
- The Cardinals have allowed 26.8 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cardinals have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing per game and the 11th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Arizona has given up the 15th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Arizona has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Cardinals have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Cardinals have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Cardinals Offense vs. the Rams Defense
In this matchup, the Cardinals will be without their entire starting interior offensive line. Arizona will also be down their third guard, while their starting left tackle and fourth guard are both still listed as questionable. If Kyler Murray plays, his evasion abilities will help those significant pass protection deficiencies. But ultimately, the Cardinals are going into this game with the worst offensive line in the league, given their missing pieces. The Rams don't have a complete front, but Leonard Floyd is a solid edge rusher, and Aaron Donald might be the best interior pass rusher of all time. The Rams defense has a trench advantage in this contest. If stationary backup quarterback Colt McCoy starts in this contest, the Rams trench edge could have an even more significant impact.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cardinals are 4-5 against the spread this season.
- The Cardinals are 4-4-1 on overs this season.
- Kyler Murray is 28-25-2 against the spread in his career.
- Kyler Murray is 24-29-2 on overs in his career.
- Kliff Kingsbury is 30-26-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kliff Kingsbury is 26-30-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Cardinals Offense
- The Cardinals are scoring 22.6 points per game, good for 16th in the league.
- Arizona is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- If Kyler Murray can't go, Colt McCoy is set to take over at quarterback for Arizona. McCoy played well in relief duty last season, going 2-1 while breaching 300 yards passing once.
- Per the Edge, Kyler Murray is fifth among quarterbacks with 359 yards rushing.
- In his return to action last week, James Conner had seven carries and five targets. Eno Benjamin had four carries and one target in that matchup.
- DeAndre Hopkins' 30.5% target share is fifth in the league, and his 47.5% air yards share is the most in the league. In his three games since returning from suspension, Hopkins breached 100 yards receiving with double-digit targets twice.
- Rondale Moore has eight to ten targets in four of his last five games. Given the Cardinals' injuries along their offensive line, it would make sense if short, quick passes to Moore were a big part of the Cardinals' game plan, especially if Colt McCoy starts at quarterback.
- Robby Anderson has been a non-factor since joining the Cardinals, catching just one pass for negative four years over three games.
- Among tight ends, Zach Ertz is second in receptions (46), sixth in yards receiving (394), third in receiving touchdowns (4), seventh in target share (19.6%), and fourth in air yards share (21.6%).
- Per TruMedia, DeAndre Hopkins has played 131 snaps on the perimeter and 51 in the slot.
- Rondale Moore has played 152 snaps on the perimeter and 212 in the slot.
Rams Defense
- The Rams have allowed 21.6 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the 20th-most yards rushing per game and the eighth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Los Angeles has given up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Rams have allowed the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You're Betting On in Cardinals vs. Rams
These teams split in the regular season last year, with the road team winning each contest. Then the Rams dominated the Cardinals 34-11 in the Wild Card round. The Rams beat the Cardinals 20-12 back in Week 3 of this season. I'm not giving these recent matchups between these two teams much weight, as injuries have significantly changed both rosters.
A bet on the Rams starts as a bet on their defense exceeding expectations against a Cardinals offensive line that has been absolutely decimated by injuries. Whether Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy starts in this contest, the Rams have a considerable edge up front in this matchup. The Rams have their own uncertainty at quarterback, as Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol. If Stafford plays, the Rams are in a very good position here as their offensive line faces a bottom-tier Cardinals front. The Rams have a clear path to at least meeting expectations on both sides of the ball if Stafford can go in this matchup. If he can't, that's your biggest concern as a Rams bettor right now.
A bet on the Cardinals is usually a bet on Kyler Murray elevating and carrying his offense to victory. Murray is a game-time decision in this contest, and injuries have ravaged Arizona's offensive line. If you're betting on the Cardinals, you need Kliff Kingsbury to create a very self-aware game plan to help mitigate the Rams' advantage in the trenches. If Matthew Stafford misses this contest, that creates more paths to the Cardinals winning this game, especially if Murray can go. Your biggest concern as a Cardinals bettor is that Murray can't go, and Colt McCoy has to play from behind while Aaron Donald plays a full game against backup guards and centers.
Cardinals vs. Rams Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Cooper Kupp is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: If Stafford plays, I'm taking the Rams in my winner pools, and I expect to be higher than consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings. If Stafford doesn't play, I'll get exposure to both teams in winner pools and rank this game as low as I can in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: If Stafford plays, I will take the Rams in at least one of my ATS tournament entries. If he doesn't, I'm going to pass.
Survivor Pool: If you're considering this game in survivor pools, you must wait until the last minute for injury updates. I'm going to outright avoid this game in that format.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Josh Fewster provides you with some start-sit fantasy advice for Week 10.
