Denver Broncos (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-3)
Opening Spread: Titans -3.
Opening Game Total: 39.
Opening Team Totals: Titans (21), Broncos (18).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans -3.
- This line has moved to Titans -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Titans -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Titans -2.5.
- This total opened at 39 points.
- This total has moved up to 39.5 points, then back down to 38 points across various sportsbooks, and now it’s back up to 39 after the Friday injury report.
Titans: Out: LT Taylor Lewan, OG Jamarco Jones, Edge Harold Landry, Edge Bud Dupree, DL Jeffery Simmons, LB Zach Cunningham, S Amani Hooker. Questionable: QB Ryan Tannehill, WR Treylon Burks, CB Kristian Fulton.
The Titans Offense vs. the Broncos Defense
The Titans have a bottom-tier offensive line. With Randy Gregory and Baron Browning out, Denver has a below-average pass rush. This trench matchup is a relative draw.
Tennessee’s passing attack has been close to nonexistent this season. That will be an even bigger problem against Denver’s premium pass defense.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 6-2 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 2-6 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 69-67-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 74-63-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 39-33-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 40-32-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Titans are scoring 18.6 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Tennessee is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- In the two games Malik Willis started, he didn’t breach 100 yards passing in either of them. Willis had 26 total passing attempts over those two games and 13 total carries.
- If Tannehill returns to action this week, Tennessee still doesn’t have a dangerous passing game, but they will be more of a threat in that phase.
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is now leading the league in yards rushing (870) after five straight 100-yard games, which included a 219-yard game against Houston two weeks ago.
- Robert Woods has breached 40 yards receiving once in his eight games this season.
- Treylon Burks may return to action this week. If he does, he’s the most dynamic pass catcher the Titans have by a considerable margin.
- Austin Hooper has exceeded three targets in a game once this season.
- The Broncos have allowed 16.5 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Broncos have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the 15th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Denver has given up the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Broncos have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Broncos Offense vs. the Titans Defense
The Broncos have a below-average offensive line. At full strength, the Titans have a top-ten-level front. Unfortunately for Tennessee, their front four are down three of their four starters, including their best player Jeffrey Simmons. Given the Titans’ injuries, I’m putting the Titans’ front in the area between average and below-average for this contest. When factoring in Russell Wilson’s evasion abilities in the passing game, I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Broncos are 3-5 against the spread this season.
- The Broncos are 1-7 on overs this season.
- Russell Wilson is 86-73-6 against the spread in his career.
- Russell Wilson is 76-88-1 on overs in his career.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 3-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 1-7 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Broncos are scoring 15.1 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Denver is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
- Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray, and newly acquired Chase Edmonds will make up a three-man running back committee.
- Per the Edge, Courtland Sutton’s 23.8% target share and 33.9% air yards share lead Broncos pass catchers.
- Jerry Jeudy’s 20.8% target share and 25.2% air yards share are second among Broncos pass catchers.
- Greg Dulcich has only played in three games this season, but he has a 17.7% target share and a 21.3% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Courtland Sutton has played 399 snaps on the perimeter and 67 in the slot.
- Jerry Jeudy has played 130 snaps on the perimeter and 245 in the slot.
- Greg Dulcich has played 65 snaps as an inline tight end, eight on the perimeter, and 59 in the slot.
- The Titans have allowed 19.8 points per game, which is tenth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the third-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the eighth-most to slot receivers.
- The Titans have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This is What You’re Betting On in Broncos vs. Titans
Injuries have transformed this game. Both defenses would have a notable edge in the trenches at full strength. Given the injuries in this contest, both teams have significantly reduced pass rushes.
A bet on the Titans is a bet on a well-coached, physical football team continuing to overcome massive amounts of injuries. The Titans defense, in particular, has been absolutely decimated by injuries after taking the Chiefs to the brink last Sunday night. Given the state of the Titans defense, a bet on Tennessee is more of a bet on Russell Wilson continuing to struggle than it is on Tennessee’s defense. It’s also a bet on the Big Dog continuing to be one of the true difference makers at the running back position. Tennessee still has quarterback uncertainty, as Ryan Tannehill has now missed two games and remains on the injury report.
Regardless of who starts for Tennessee at quarterback, Denver’s elite pass defense against Tennessee’s bottom-tier passing attack allows Denver to take more chances on defense. It would make sense if Denver deployed more stacked boxes to limit Derrick Henry. There’s no guarantee that Denver goes in that direction strategically, but that’s another concern I’d have with a Titans bet.
A bet on the Broncos is a bet on Russell Wilson’s offense, taking a step forward after their bye against an injury-ravaged Titans defense. Wilson has been very inconsistent in this new offense this season, but I’ve still seen some flashes of his dynamic play-making ability throughout the year. Wilson doesn’t have to drop 300 yards passing and four scores on Tennessee, but if I’m betting on Denver, I’m betting on them to beat their 18-point team total. Your biggest concern as a Broncos bettor is that Derrick Henry simply continues to do what he does. If Denver can limit Henry, the Broncos defense is in a strong position here. If they can’t, Tennessee has won many games over the last few years on the back of the Big Dog.
Broncos vs. Titans Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Derrick Henry is an Offensive Player of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Denver in at least most of my winner pools. I expect to be right around consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m considering a bet on Denver, given the massive amount of injuries on the Tennessee side.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Head of Betting Chris Farley and former NFL DL Tank Williams break down how to bet Broncos vs. Titans.