Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will be discussing prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord, via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog) and Brian O’Connell (PrizePicks) once they’re on the site. Also be on the lookout for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte with another betting pick.
J.K. Dobbins OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
The Baltimore Ravens are the biggest favorites on the slate at -10, and the Houston Texans were a bottom-three run defense last year. Ryan Reynolds said Houston is roughly 20th out of 32 teams this year in that department. J.K. Dobbins had at least 12 carries in each game when he returned from injury last season and went over this number in all four of those games (15-120, 13-125, 12-59, 17-93). Even if the Ravens pass 65 percent of the time, Dobbins can still get there, since he probably needs 10-14 carries to hit this over.
I would have expected this line to open in the mid-60s and would play it up to 60.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds, Racz
Raheem Mostert OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
The Los Angeles Chargers allowed a league-high 5.6 yards per carry vs. running backs last year and still don’t have a strong interior defensive line. It’s tough to see the rookie De’Von Achane getting more than 6-8 carries in this contest since he didn’t practice much during the past month because an AC joint sprain. Expect 13-17 rush attempts for Raheem Mostert. It’s hard to see them giving too much groundwork to Achane in Week 1, and Salvon Ahmed runs a 4.62 40-time and doesn’t really fit what the Miami Dolphins want to do on the ground. Currently, DraftKings is the only Sportsbook I see with a line for his rushing yards posted. I would have thought this opened closer to 61.5 rushing yards and would play up to 59.5
Bet by: Larky, Racz
Mac Jones UNDER 229.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -127 on Caesar’s, -135 on DraftKings
Mac Jones has averaged about 219 pass yards per game for his career. Even in his rookie season where he was playing in a functional offense, he still averaged just 223.5 passing yards per game. Sixteen of his 31 career games have been under, so it’s roughly a coin flip at first glance. But then you factor in the reports that JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker aren’t fully healthy. And, the Philadelphia Eagles pass defense is still quite good, as they allowed just 179 pass yards per game in 2022. All signs point to Jones having an underwhelming Week 1. Our own resident data scientist Ben Wolby has Jones projected for 210 pass yards this week. I’d play this down to 222.5 passing yards.
Bet by: Larky, Wolby, Racz
Jalen Hurts OVER 12.5 Longest Rush
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Jalen Hurts went over this line in 11 of 17 games while averaging 11 attempts per game. The Patriots defense allowed quarterback rushes of 13-plus yards on 10 percent of carries, the 11th most. My model places fair value for this prop at 14.5, with a 62 percent chance of Hurts going over this line. Play up to 13.5 yards.
Bet by: Wolby, Larky
Kirk Cousins UNDER 17.65 fantasy points, Justin Jefferson UNDER 0.5 receiving TDs, Greg Joseph UNDER 2.5 XP made with [Joe Burrow UNDER 20.25 fantasy points and Ja’Marr Chase UNDER 0.5 receiving TDs] and with [Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 17.65 fantasy points and Tyreek Hill UNDER 0.5 receiving TDs]
Best Odds: +1900 on Underdog Fantasy
The Minnesota Vikings parlay block is heavily correlated. In scenarios where Justin Jefferson does not catch a receiving touchdown, Kirk Cousins‘ fantasy score will likely be lower and Greg Joseph is less likely to make three or more extra points. When Ja’Marr Chase does not score a receiving touchdown, Joe Burrow is likely to go under his fantasy score. When Tyreek Hill does not score a receiving touchdown, Tua Tagovailoa is likely to go under his fantasy score. I would play these as long as Cousins’ fantasy score is at least 17.0, Burrow’s fantasy score is at least 19.5, and Tua’s fantasy score is at least 17.0 and their wide receivers still have a receiving touchdown prop available and Joseph has a prop of exactly 2.5 XP made.
Bet by: Racz
Brian Robinson OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings, -110 on Bet365
Brian Robinson was over this number in eight of 12 games during his rookie season, averaging 17 carries per game in the process. Yes, there’s a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy who may lean more pass-heavy, but it’s also a team with the unproven Sam Howell at quarterback. Robinson is also facing an Arizona Cardinals team that may have the worst front in football. Below, you’ll see an image of the sonar depth chart from our data provider, Sports Info Solutions. Safe to say, SIS don’t view the Cardinals defense as very good (blue is bad, orange is good for coloring). Robinson should hit this over with 12-15 carries, and wouldn’t surprise if he flirts with 20 carries in this contest, where Washington is favored by seven points. This line likely will climb into the 60s by midday, and would play it up to 61.5 yards.
Bet by: Larky
Michael Thomas OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
This has already risen to 42.5 yards at -120 odds on DraftKings. Michael Thomas has played in 10 games the past three years, going over this number in eight of those 10. The Tennessee Titans allowed the most receiving yards per game in the NFL last year, and the New Orleans Saints won’t have the suspended Alvin Kamara for this contest. Derek Carr is listed at 244.5 passing yards on FanDuel, and it’s likely Thomas can get at least 16.5 percent of those implied passing yards. Play this up to 43.5 receiving yards.
Bet by: Larky
Derek Carr OVER 31.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Teams against the Titans went 14-3 over this total while averaging a league high 37 attempts. As a matter of fact, teams passed against Tennessee more than any other team (18 percent more than the league average).
Carr averaged 33 attempts per game in 2022, going over this line in nine of 15.
Last year, New Orleans QB Jameis Winston averaged 38 attempts per game going 3-0 over this number before getting hurt. Once Andy Dalton took over, this offense became very rush heavy, averaging 27 attempts per game. With Kamara suspended and RB Kendre Miller not 100 percent, it’s hard to imagine this team being rush heavy with its new shiny toy in Carr.
The Saints averaged 28.9 rushes per game with Dalton at quarterback. Jamaal Williams, the team’s starting running back for week 1, never had more than 24 carries in a game last season, and averaged just 15.4.
Using Bayesian Statistics, I simulated the outcome of this prop, and Carr went over 31.5 attempts in 65 percent of the simulations.
Bet by: Wolby
Monty Rice UNDER 7.5 Tackles + Assists
Best Odds: +100 on DraftKings, -104 on Caesars, -105 on MGM
By all reports throughout preseason, Jack Gibbens has secured the LB2 spot behind Azeez Al-Shaair in Tennessee. Last season, the Tennessee Titans ran a nickel base defense (2 offball LBs) 61.4 percent of the time and dime 24.4 percent (1 offball LB). Assuming reports of Rice being third on the depth chart are true, that doesn’t leave him much playing time. The Saints were ninth in tackles per game allowed to LBs last season at 17.4/game. Even if Rice plays more than anticipated, this still is a lofty number for him to reach. I am personally placing 2 units on this one
Bet by: Patrick H.
D’Andre Swift OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -120 on DraftKings
D’Andre Swift was over this number in 12 of 14 games last year. He’s on a new team, and he’s paired with the far more mobile Jalen Hurts. But, if you’re the Philadelphia Eagles and you trade for Swift and don’t give him at least two catches in most games, why did you trade for him? The New England Patriots allowed 4.9 receptions per game to running backs last year, via our free, flagship tool, The Edge. I’d play this up to 15 receiving yards.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds, Wolby
Khalil Herbert OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards
Best odds: -120 on DraftKings
All indications are Khalil Herbert is the lead back for the Chicago Bears this year. Herbert was over this number in seven of 13 games last year where he had a carry. David Montgomery often out-carried Herbert last year, but Montgomery now is in Detroit. Herbert had four carries for 38 yards last year vs. Green Bay. Per The Edge, the Green Bay Packers gave up the seventh most rushing yards last season to running backs.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky, Wolby
Chris Godwin OVER 5.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +124 on DraftKings
First, +124 props need to hit at just 45 percent in the long-run for you to make money off them. Chris Godwin was over this number in 13 of his final 14 games last year. The elephant in the room is there’s no more Tom Brady and no more 40 pass attempts every game.
The Minnesota Vikings did allow 14.7 receptions per game to wide receivers last year, most in the NFL, per The Edge. The Vikings’ secondary is still below average heading into this season. Also, Minnesota is 5.5 point favorites in the betting markets, so Tampa Bay should have to pass in this contest.
With Rachaad White and Sean Tucker in the backfield, we should expect this team to lean on passing to Godwin and Mike Evans. Behind those two, it’s TE Cade Otton and WR3 rookie Trey Palmer, who was selected in the sixth round this year. Put simply, it’s a very narrow target tree. Godwin was also coming off the late 2021 season ACL tear for last season, so there’s a good chance he’s better and more explosive now that he’s 2 years removed from that injury.
Bet by: Larky
Brock Purdy UNDER 237.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -113 on MyBookie, -115 on DraftKings (at 234.5 yards)
We have a new partnership with MyBookie.com, and it happens to have the best line and best odds on this Brock Purdy prop. Go to MyBookie.com and use promo code 33rdTeam. You’ll get a 10 percent deposit match, so if you put in $200, you’ll have $220 in your account. Creating an account with the site helps us keep our content free for the 2023 NFL Season.
Back to the prop, Purdy was under this in five of his six regular season games last year. Both defenses have an advantage over the offensive lines in this matchup, so the under is a decent play for the overall game, too. The only time Purdy played a premium defensive front last year was the playoff game vs. Dallas, where he had only 214 yards passing in the contest.
We’d play this down to 231.5 passing yards.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Geno Smith OVER 21.5 Completions
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Geno Smith was 11-6 to the over on this last year. Eight of the 11 Los Angeles Rams starting defenders are undrafted, rookies or guys taken round six or later in the NFL Draft. Expect the Seattle Seahawks to pummel the Rams, and the Rams cannot cover the trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Our data scientist Ben Wolby said his model’s giving him a 61.5 percent chance the over hits here.
Bet by: Larky, Wolby, Reynolds
Deshaun Watson OVER 22.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Deshaun Watson has averaged more than five rush attempts per game every year of his career, with six per game last year. While Watson struggled mightily as a passer last year, he still relied on his legs like prior seasons. He’s also averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry every season. He’s played in 60 career games, and has gone over 22.5 rushing yards in 43 of them (72 percent). This line has moved in a few places to 23.5 rushing yards, and he’s gone over that in 42 of 60 games (70 percent).
Play this up to 24.5 rushing yards.
Bet by: Larky
Justin Herbert Over 2.5 Rush Attempts
Best Odds: +110 on DraftKings
Justin Herbert was 10-7 over this number last season, so don’t buy the ‘his team was banged up’ narrative against this prop. He averaged 3.5 carries per game from Week 11 onwards with a healthy Keenan Allen and averaged 3.7 carries per game in 2021 when Allen and Mike Williams missed two combined games.
Dak Prescott even averaged 3.8 carries per game last season under new Los Angeles Chargers OC Kellen Moore.
Quarterbacks vs Miami had the sixth-most rushes last year: 88 total quarterback rushes for an average of five rushes per game. The only quarterbacks to not go over this line were Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Flacco – all quarterbacks who averaged fewer than two rushes per game. A big part of this is Miami’ defense. Last year, that defense was top seven in pressures but 22nd in sack percent – giving quarterbacks a chance to roll out and rush.
The model has the over probably at 63 percent.
Bet by: Wolby
Tyler Boyd Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -120 on DraftKings
There’s a stigma that Tyler Boyd is a handcuff wide receiver and he’s great to bet on or start in fantasy if Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins gets hurt.
That is NOT the case.
Boyd averaged 52 YPG in weeks in the Higgins and Chase played, which is 20 more yards than this prop. He went 8-3 in those games (removing the game where he left after one snap). Compare that to 35 YPG in games one of them missed.
Wide receivers with at least 30 snaps in the slot vs. the Cleveland Browns went 5-2 over this number, including Boyd in Week 8 who saw 83 percent of his snaps last season from the slot (about 40 per game).
Using Bayesian bootstrapping across games Chase, Higgins and Boyd played, the model gives the over 67 percent probability and 58 percent using data from all of 2022.
Bet by: Wolby
Jason Pinnock OVER 3.5 tackles + assists
Best Odds: -125 on Bet365, -130 DraftKings
It looks like Jason Pinnock won the starting safety position opposite Xavier McKinney this offseason. Last year, when Pinnock played at least 60 percent of the snaps, he went over this total in five of six games. One of those games was an eight tackle performance against the Cowboys who ranked as a top-five matchup against safeties, giving up 15.3 tackles per game in 2022. My model has this going over in roughly 80 percent of the simulations.
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
