Betting
4/24/23
16 min read
NFL Draft Betting: 2023 Mock Draft Based on Betting Markets
Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds present a mock draft that’s heavily influenced by the current betting markets. Analysis, team fits, bets to take and occasional fantasy thoughts are present throughout.
Betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. If we recommend betting on a player at +300 odds, we expect this bet to hit more often than its implied percentage (25 percent).
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Round 1 Picks
1. Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Bryce Young (scouting report) has always been in the mix to be the first player selected in this year’s draft. Currently, he’s -1600 (5.9 percent) to be the first overall pick on DraftKings sportsbook. The new era of Carolina Panthers football begins with Young.
2. Houston Texans
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Things start to get messy with the Houston Texans and the second overall pick, as four players have odds between -140 (58.3 percent) and +500 (16.7 percent). Will Levis (scouting report) is the current favorite at -140, and The 33rd Team's head of scouting T.J. McCreight, and his team have been well above consensus on Levis for months. This pick validates the consistent rumors the Texans are high on Levis.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
If a quarterback is selected with the second overall pick, Arizona could see fewer trade offers from teams looking to leap the Indianapolis Colts to select a quarterback. But if they stand pat, edge Tyree Wilson (scouting report) — +250, 28.6 percent — has jumped ahead of edge Will Anderson (+380, 20.8 percent) to be the third overall pick.
If someone trades up with the Arizona Cardinals to select a quarterback, C.J. Stroud (+230, 30.3 percent) leads Anthony Richardson (+350, 22.2 percent) and Levis (+800, 11.1 percent) to be selected with the third overall pick.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Anthony Richardson (scouting report) is currently +380 (20.8 percent) to go fourth overall, with Levis (+110, 47.6 percent) and C.J. Stroud (+220, 31.3 percent) favored to go off the board here. However, Levis is the favorite (-140, 58.3 percent) to go second, and Stroud is the only quarterback among the top four with consistent rumblings of sliding on draft day.
Richardson’s skill set more closely matches Jalen Hurts, and the Colts’ new head coach, Shane Steichen, was in Philadelphia last season. Our +250 (28.6 percent) bet to have Richardson come off the board by pick No. 4 hits in this scenario.
NEW: NFL Draft Bet in @The33rdTeamFB Discord@Danny___Dimes found a +250 bet that should probably be closer to +100 or +125
I immediately tailed him on DraftKings, and you should toohttps://t.co/VNRothME0t pic.twitter.com/vITnRpzHgo
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) April 22, 2023
5. Seattle Seahawks
Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama
Long-term, the Seattle Seahawks should consider selecting one of the top quarterbacks if they are available. But for this season, in a winnable NFC, a premium pass rusher like Will Anderson (scouting report) is the best-case scenario for the Seahawks. He’s also the favorite (+200, 33.3 percent) to be selected with the fifth pick in this year’s draft. As Seahawks bettors, we’d be absolutely ecstatic if Seattle lands Anderson.
6. Detroit Lions
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Devon Witherspoon (scouting report) is the favorite to land at Pick 6 (-130, 56.5 percent), and the Detroit Lions have a massive hole at cornerback after essentially giving away former third-overall pick Jeff Okudah to the Atlanta Falcons earlier this offseason.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Christian Gonzalez (scouting report) is the favorite to be the seventh overall pick (+275, 26.7 percent), and the Las Vegas Raiders desperately need a headlining cornerback. They will pass on a falling C.J. Stroud here, to fill the void at the back end of the defense with an elite cornerback prospect.
8. Atlanta Falcons
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Falcons were immediately out on Lamar Jackson, and there have been no rumors of them being interested in Richardson (+2500, 3.9 percent to go eighth overall). C.J. Stroud’s (scouting report) draft day fall ends with Atlanta, where he is currently +750 (11.8 percent) to go at Pick 8.
We are not entertaining the Falcons as the favorites to select Bijan Robinson (+200, 33.3 percent), since this team has a glaring hole at the most important position in football — quarterback.
9. Chicago Bears
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Jalen Carter (scouting report) is the co-favorite (+300, 25 percent) to be taken with the ninth overall pick, alongside Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright. The Chicago Bears have needs at both positions, but Chicago simply can’t pass up on the most disruptive player left on the board.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
Peter Skoronski, OG/OT, Northwestern
This brief audio clip from our interview with @JoeBanner13 resulted in @RyanReynoldsNFL and I placing a LIVE bet during the podcast recording
Joe was the long-time President of the Philadelphia Eagles, listen in to what he thinks will happen for them on draft day pic.twitter.com/UE4lWlCdHu
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) April 20, 2023
Former Philadelphia Eagles president Joe Banner borderline spoon-fed this as a great fit for the team and player when we interviewed him last week. The full 40-minute interview can be found here. Peter Skoronski (scouting report) has the highest odds to go at Pick 10 (+250, 28.6 percent), and the next closest name is another offensive lineman, Paris Johnson (+300, 25 percent).
11. Tennessee Titans
Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
The Tennessee Titans have zero above-average offensive linemen on their roster, and it’s important for a rebuilding team to focus on the trenches. Tennessee is -115 (53.5 percent) to select an offensive lineman with its first pick in this draft. They will take Paris Johnson (scouting report) to fill that need here.
>>READ: Draft Bets to Make for AFC South
12. Houston Texans
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Texans have the second-best odds of landing Bijan Robinson (scouting report) — +500, 16.7 percent — and while a rebuilding team like Houston has other needs, the lack of blue-chip prospects in this draft can help justify selecting the best player available to take pressure off Levis.
13. Green Bay Packers
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Jets no longer own this pick after the Aaron Rodgers trade. Jones is the top overall player in this draft according to our scouting department, and Rodgers’ back-to-back MVP awards were partially due to playing behind great offensive lines. The Packers set up Jordan Love for success here, and they are +300 (25 percent) to take an offensive lineman with their first pick.
14. New England Patriots
Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
The New England Patriots are +900 to take a defensive lineman or edge with their first selection, and they have holes at two of their three defensive line spots. The Patriots selecting a defensive lineman or edge is a bet Larky has taken at current odds.
Nolan Smith (scouting report) is an athletic freak (4.39 40-yard dash time despite weighing 238 pounds) with high character, who should fit well with the Patriots. Smith could be off the board prior to this pick, as he’s +130 (43.5 percent) to go higher than Pick 10.5 in betting markets.
15. New York Jets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Rodgers was inexplicably denied a first round wideout throughout his time in Green Bay, and the Jets right that wrong here. With Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard on the outside and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) manning the slot, the Jets give Rodgers one of the NFL’s best receiving cores. The Jets are +1000 (9.1 percent) to take a receiver with their first pick, with markets expecting them to take an offensive lineman. The Packers picking Broderick Jones forces the Jets to adapt here.
>> READ: Bets to Make on AFC East Teams
16. Washington Commanders
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
We recently bet the Washington Commanders to take a quarterback at +2000 (4.8 percent), and the Jacoby Brissett signing this offseason points to them being unsold about Sam Howell as their opening-day starter. The Commanders suddenly play in one of the NFL’s more loaded divisions, and multiple mock drafts have identified this fit.
Hendon Hooker (scouting report) has a chance to lead all rookie quarterbacks in yards per game, as few first-year quarterbacks are gifted with a receiver duo as talented as Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Pittsburgh Steelers have notable needs at offensive tackle and cornerback. Ultimately, they select the best offensive tackle remaining on the board, Darnell Wright (scouting report), to further support second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett.
18. Detroit Lions
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Lions have a massive hole at Tight End after T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings in the middle of the 2022 season. Michael Mayer (scouting report) doesn’t have any elite traits, but he does everything well. Notre Dame funneled their entire passing offense through him the past two seasons, and Dan Campbell’s “biting kneecaps” philosophy pairs well with the high-effort Mayer.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a transitional phase, moving from Tom Brady to either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at quarterback. They have a need at the tackle position, and it’s good business to start a rebuild with a foundational piece like an offensive tackle. The Buccaneers show confidence Anton Harrison (scouting report) can become that piece with their pick here.
20. Seattle Seahawks
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
The 49ers’ QB situation is in flux, and the Rams and Cardinals are rebuilding. This year is a sneaky season for the Seahawks to make some noise, and we have both bet on this team in nearly every way already (Division Winner, Conference Winner, Super Bowl Winner) at significant longshots — where the odds have moved heavily in our favor this offseason.
The Seahawks were just 19th in QB pressure rate (32.3 percent) last season, according to The Edge. Myles Murphy (scouting report) is a physical specimen at 6-foot-5 and 258 pounds, and he’ll elevate the play of Seattle’s already strong cornerback group by getting consistent pressure on opposing QBs. After taking Will Anderson at Pick 5, the Seahawks turned a relative weakness into a strength, and have one of the NFL’s top young edge duos overnight.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
The Los Angeles Chargers grab a disruptive pass rusher and run stopper here, as the best way to beat the Kansas City Chiefs is to pressure Patrick Mahomes. We considered a wide receiver here (+125, 44.4 percent), but DL/edge for the Chargers’ first pick (+300, 25 percent) is still one of their more likely options.
If Smith-Njigba wasn’t taken earlier, he would have been the heir apparent to Keenan Allen. Instead, the Chargers grab Lukas Van Ness (scouting report).
22. Baltimore Ravens
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Emmanuel Forbes at 166 pounds doesn’t fit their archetype of bigger, physical corners (-120, 54.6 percent for the Baltimore Ravens to draft a cornerback with their first pick). Quentin Johnston (scouting report) — +200, 33.3 percent for Baltimore to take a wide receiver — satisfies Lamar Jackson, who we believe stays in Baltimore, as Odell Beckham Jr. is not a long-term solution here. Johnston’s elite after-the-catch ability complements Jackson as a passer.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
If you watched the Minnesota Vikings' wild-card loss to the New York Giants, you already know they need to overhaul their secondary. Minnesota kicks off that endeavor by drafting Deonte Banks (scouting report).
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Branch, CB/S, Alabama
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a fast, young defensive front that’s well-positioned to take a step forward this season. Adding a versatile player like Brian Branch (scouting report) would bring a major talent upgrade to an unreliable Jaguars secondary.
25. New York Giants
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
New York considers a cornerback in this spot, but it ultimately gives Daniel Jones another weapon. Zay Flowers (scouting report) is the most dynamic run-after-the-catch wide receiver in this class, which pairs well with the Giants’ short passing game. The Giants are +125 (44.4 percent) to take a receiver with their first pick, their highest odds for any position.
26. Dallas Cowboys
Joe Tippmann, OG/C, Wisconsin
The Dallas Cowboys could go in a number of directions with this pick, but ultimately, they reinforce their offensive line for the second season in a row, this time with Joe Tippmann (scouting report).
27. Buffalo Bills
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Buffalo Bills are +300 (25 percent) to take a wide receiver with their first pick. Our resident wide receiver expert, Jordan Vanek, wrote up both Stefon Diggs as a ceiling comparison and the Bills as a great fit for Jordan Addison (scouting report) in our free Rookie Draft Guide.
28. Cincinnati Bengals
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Pouring gasoline on the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers rivalry, the Bengals select the son of former Steelers standout Joey Porter — Joey Porter Jr. (scouting report). The AFC is loaded with dangerous offenses headlined by dynamic quarterbacks. Porter is a talent infusion for a Bengals secondary that just lost one of the best safeties in football in Jessie Bates.
29. New Orleans Saints
Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State
The New Orleans Saints lost Marcus Davenport in free agency, and potential Hall of Famer Cam Jordan will turn 34 in July. The Saints reinforce their front with Will McDonald IV (scouting report).
30. Philadelphia Eagles
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
The Eagles reinforce both lines in the first round because that’s what they do. Calijah Kancey (scouting report) begins his career as Fletcher Cox’s understudy. Kancey’s skill set pairs well with last year's first-round pick, Jordan Davis, long term.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
The Chiefs are +150 (40 percent) to select a wide receiver with their first pick, but they just won a Super Bowl while neglecting this position. So, instead, they roll out Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore on opening day. Their offense centers around Mahomes, Travis Kelce and strong line play.
Sam LaPorta (scouting report) is drafted as the long-term replacement for Kelce. LaPorta ran a 4.59 40-yard dash, which is a shade faster than Kelce, and he had target shares of at least 21 percent from his sophomore season onward at Iowa.
A tight end going to Kansas City is a +1200 (7.7 percent) longshot, but we view LaPorta as a capable enough pass-catcher who could easily be in a higher tier than the remaining wideouts. The Chiefs would also consider Dalton Kincaid at this spot, though he didn’t test due to injury, and offers nothing as a blocker. We have concerns about him at the NFL level, and he’s more than a year older than LaPorta while being less dynamic.
Teams with No First Round Pick
Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns.
Round 2 Additions
We mocked eight additional players of particular interest, and discuss their landing spots in Round 2.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Pittsburgh has a major need at cornerback, and they get a good value with Emmanuel Forbes (scouting report) still on the board. Forbes is a blue-chip corner prospect if you can overlook his size (166 pounds).
33. Houston Texans
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The Texans go back to the Will Fuller blueprint, drafting a speedy deep threat who plays bigger than his size — Jalin Hyatt (scouting report). He opens up the field for Levis these next four seasons.
34. Arizona Cardinals
Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Arizona needs upgrades at multiple positions, but offensive tackle is right toward the top of the list. Our The 33rd Team Scouting Department is particularly high on Dawand Jones (scouting report) as a prospect.
35. Indianapolis Colts
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Two tight end sets are a staple for the Colts, and Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) pairs nicely with another great athlete in Jelani Woods. Two massive bodies as targets in the passing game would ease the transition to the NFL for Richardson.
37. Seattle Seahawks
BJ Ojulari, Edge, LSU
The Seahawks add another talented, SEC edge — BJ Ojulari (scouting report) — to further bolster their pass rush. As Seahawks bettors, it would be hard to ask for more out of this draft class.
42. Green Bay Packers
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
The Packers draft a big target for Jordan Love who is a nearly generational talent as a blocking Tight End. Darnell Washington (scouting report) needs refining as a pass-catcher, but he immediately becomes Love’s favorite weapon in the red zone.
44. Carolina Panthers
Josh Downs, WR, UNC
The former Tar Heel, Josh Downs (scouting report), stays home in Carolina to be Young’s long-term target in the slot. Downs could compete for significant playing time right out of the gate.
51. Miami Dolphins
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
The Dolphins add Jahmyr Gibbs’ (scouting report) 4.36 speed to a team that also has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on offense. We would be thrilled, for fantasy football purposes, if Gibbs was Miami’s starting back in 2023.
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