Analysis
11/28/22
3 min read
Monotone's Monday Night Football Player Prop for Steelers vs. Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts is a somewhat mediocre end to an otherwise solid week of football. Neither of these teams is in the playoff hunt, and the Colts are seemingly back to riding with Matt Ryan for the rest of the season. The Steelers are in full-on development mode with quarterback Kenny Pickett.
Since he took over, we've seen tight end Pat Freiermuth and rookie wideout George Pickens trending upwards, with Diontae Johnson seeing a reduced role. Najee Harris is not having a great season, but backup Jaylen Warren is notably out for Monday's game. He was slowly eating into his volume, so I expect Harris to have a full workload despite a tough matchup against the Colts.
 T.J. Watt might be the most important defensive player to the spread in the NFL. When Watt plays, he can single-handedly help this team generate pressure and slow the run game down. With Watt in the lineup, the Steelers run defense shifts from 27th in Rushing EPA Allowed/Play to seventh. Because the Colts' offensive line has struggled so much, I expect Ryan to continue his legacy as the check-down king.
While the Steelers' rush defense scares me, the pass defense is where I believe they are more exploitable and where the Colts' offense plans to attack. Alec Pierce is a tempting rookie to play, but his ADoT is almost double Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr., and this team just doesn't have enough downfield usage to sustain his current price.
Parris Campbell o3.5 Receptions -130 MGM
I was debating between yards and receptions for Campbell, mostly because I think both of them will end up hitting. Last week, I cashed on both because we recognized his relationship with Ryan wasn't being appreciated enough. If you look at his basic game log, you would see two disappointing games recently, but those both came with quarterback Sam Ehlinger under center.
In his last four games with Ryan, Campbell has a 25% target share. During that stretch, he's averaging 7.5 targets, 5.5 receptions and 59.5 scrimmage yards per game. He should also draw the most exploitable matchup in Steelers defensive back Arthur Maulet, who allows a 75% catch rate and 125.7 passing rating when targeted this season. With an ADOT of 6.1 (via The Edge), Campbell should be involved in the quick passing game, and this Steelers line should give the Colts problems all night long.
WATCH MORE: How to Bet Steelers vs. Colts
