Analysis
11/7/22
4 min read
Monotone's NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football Player Prop
Welcome to my weekly Monday Night Football props article, where I’ll take you through my favorite plays on the slate.
While there is plenty of great spread content on the site, I’ve had a lot of success focusing solely on player props. This week, I’ll be betting on Alvin Kamara and the Saints, who are much in need of a win against the Ravens. We don’t often get a competitive prime-time game, so let’s take advantage of this bet on Kamara.
Breaking down Ravens vs. Saints
The Baltimore Ravens are currently in an interesting offensive position. They are down their top receivers in Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews, along with running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. During the John Harbaugh era, they have always been a run-oriented team, and I expect that to continue.
While Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill don't jump off the page from a talent perspective, they are both serviceable and understand the system. They are obviously aided by their generational rushing quarterback opening up easy-running opportunities. They also added veteran receiver DeSean Jackson from free agency and top off-ball linebacker Roquan Smith in a trade with the Bears. But, it's unlikely either of them is used super heavily off the bat.
The New Orleans Saints are also another tough cookie to crack. Preseason expectations had their defense as one of the best in the NFL. But they have allowed more than 28 PPG in four of their last five matchups. Despite that, most advanced metrics have them between slightly above average and middle of the pack. It looks like regression started to show in last week's 24-0 win against Las Vegas.
A lot of their struggle has come from the lack of natural pressure (getting to the quarterback without blitzing), something they have reliably been able to do for the better part of the last decade). Additionally, cornerback Marshon Lattimore has already been ruled out for this contest. The Saints' secondary should struggle without him. It's just whether or not the Ravens actually have the tools to take advantage of it.
Alvin Kamara 4.5 Receptions; -135 BetMGM
Kamara is not a player I often bet on, and the RB receiving yards market isn't always dependable. But, I think there's plenty of value here. One of the main reasons I don't love that market is because of how game script-dependent it can be. However, with a spread currently set at 1.5 and a total of 46.5, Vegas is expecting a relatively high-scoring close game.
The most significant factor is Kamara is one of the few game script-agnostic players. Kamara will be involved whether they are winning or losing. While for some players, that means the rushing game, the Saints are one of the main teams that use the quick passing game as an extension of the running game, especially with Andy Dalton.
Last week, against the Raiders, is a perfect example. Kamara recorded nine catches for 96 yards despite the 24-0 win, and the team being in control the whole game. While QB Jameis Winston may be the "blindly throw the ball 50 yards down the field in double coverage" guy, Dalton is known as the "check down god".
When we look at how Kamara has played with Dalton vs. Winston, it's a huge difference. He's recorded more than six catches in all four games Dalton has started this season. Saints' top rookie wideout Chris Olave will now draw one of his toughest matchups on the outside with Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey. While Olave has been great to start the season, I think he will garner a lot of attention and have a more challenging time succeeding here than in some of his softer matchups.
While they will patch together some yardage through career backups like Tre'Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway, Kamara will be a massive part of this game script. MGM currently has the best number at -135, and I would also pivot to receiving yards at 37.5 if the juice gets too high.
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