Analysis
11/14/22
3 min read
Monotone Football’s Monday Night Player Props: Commanders vs. Eagles
The 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles are set to take on the 4-5 Washington Commanders in Monday's primetime action.
While these divisional games typically give us fairly close spreads, the Eagles are set as 11-point favorites, meaning the books expect a somewhat one-sided affair. In their matchup earlier this season, the Eagles scored all 24 of their points in the second quarter, coasting to a 24-8 victory.
While that was with Carson Wentz in at quarterback, Taylor Heinicke has a 2-1 record with the only loss coming from a last-second field goal against the Vikings last week. Washington needs a win if they want any hopes of staying competitive in this division. But, it's an absolutely brutal matchup. The Eagles' offense enters this game currently ranked third in EPA/drive, while the Commanders rank 28th.
One of the reasons Washington has been so successful is they can quickly get pressure on the quarterback while also being one of the best run-stopping units in football. This, along with their excellent safety play, has helped shield them from a weak secondary and linebacker core.
There are two problems with that against the Eagles. First, the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in football. Second, Washington has been good against the run, but not when the opposing team has a mobile quarterback. An excellent example of this was on primetime against the Bears (a much worse team), where Justin Fields rushed for 88 yards, with Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery combining for an additional 141 yards on the ground.
Hurts OVER 40.5 Rush Yards -120 MGM
This problem will get even worse with Cole Holcomb ruled out, as well as his backup David Mayo. Holcomb was leading this Washington linebacker group in tackles and was also the player responsible for spying opposing quarterbacks. While Holcomb being out won't affect the running backs rushing as much, I think it gives Eagles QB Jalen Hurts more of an edge, with less athletic/capable linebackers being responsible for him now.
When these two teams squared off earlier this season, Hurts rushed nine times for 20 yards. That game was over at halftime, and there was really no reason for Hurts to run for the rest of the game.
I don't love betting on rushing quarterbacks in games they are projected to win easily. But, I think we are getting too much of a discount here. In their last outing, this number closed in the low fifties, and now we are getting 10 points because of those results. Hurts has been running less in these blowouts. But, we must remember he still lapped the rest of the league in designed runs for the first seven weeks of the season (and still does lead the league).
I think Washington will show up to fight today. They have played nothing but close games recently, and I'm not sure that changes here. I believe Eagles RB Miles Sanders will struggle against Washington's defensive line, and the quick pressure should force Hurts out of the pocket more than usual. While I usually prefer rushing attempts, his line is at 10.5, which does feel too high. I'm going to trust he breaks at least one or two of more than 15 yards on Monday night.
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