Betting

10/14/22

7 min read

Matchups Week 6: Saints vs. Bengals

Joe Burrow Ravens Saints vs. Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws in the first quarter during an NFL Week 5 game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Nfl Cincinnati Bengals At Baltimore Ravens Oct 9 0123

New Orleans Saints (2-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

Opening Spread: Saints +1.

Opening Game Total: 44.

Team Totals: Saints (21.5), Bengals (22.5)

Weather: Dome.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Saints +1.
  • This line has moved up to Saints +2.5 as of Friday afternoon.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Saints +1.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Saints +1.5.
  • This total opened at 44 points.
  • This total has moved slightly down to 43.5 points as of Friday afternoon.

Notable Injuries

Saints: IR: LT Trevor Penning. Out: WR Michael Thomas, WR Jarvis Landry, CB Marshon Lattimore. Questionable: QB Jameis Winston (won’t start, might be active), WR Chris Olave, CB Paulson Adebo, S Marcus Maye.

Bengals: IR: DT D.J. Reader. Questionable: WR Tee Higgins, TE Hayden Hurst, LT Jonah Williams.

Saints Offense vs. Bengals Defense

New Orleans’ offensive line is a fringe top-10 unit, despite being down No. 19 overall pick Trevor Penning at left tackle. The Bengals are down defensive tackle D.J. Reader, which will have a negative impact on their consistently strong run defense. Cincinnati has a bottom-tier pass rush outside of edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. The Saints have a moderate macro edge in the trenches, though Hendrickson presents a matchup issue in pass protection on the outside.

Betting Notes

  • The Saints are 2-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Saints are 3-2 on overs this season.
  • Andy Dalton is 78-66-6 against the spread in his career.
  • Andy Dalton is 77-72-1 on overs in his career.
  • Dennis Allen is 16-24-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Dennis Allen is 19-21-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Saints Offense

  • The Saints are scoring 23 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
  • New Orleans is 14th in the league in yards passing per game and 10th in yards rushing.
  • Over his two starts as a Saint this season, Andy Dalton has a 69.2% completion percentage with 423 yards passing to go with two passing touchdowns and one interception.
  • Alvin Kamara has missed two games, but he’s coming off a spike week against Seattle with 103 yards rushing and 91 yards receiving.
  • Per the Edge, Chris Olave is 21st in the league with a 25.8% target share. He’s 12th in yards receiving (389), and he’s fourth in air yards share at 43.7%.
  • With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry out, Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway will both see significant increases in playing time.
  • Tight end Juwan Johnson leads Saints skill position players in snaps (252), he’s second in routes run (112), and he has a solid 11.7% target share.
  • Per TruMedia, Chris Olave has played 159 snaps on the perimeter and 49 in the slot.
  • Juwan Johnson has played 100 snaps as an inline tight end, 27 on the perimeter, and 77 in the slot.
  • Adam Trautman has played 152 snaps as an inline tight end, seven on the perimeter, and 22 in the slot.

Bengals Defense

  • The Bengals have allowed 17.8 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 29th-most yards rushing and the 27th-most yards receiving to running backs this season. 
  • Cincinnati has allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving on the 22nd-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • The Bengals have given up the fourth-most yards receiving on the fourth-most receptions to tight ends this season.
  • The Bengals have given up the eighth-most PPR points to inline tight ends and the tenth-most to tight ends lined up in the slot. 

Bengals Offense vs. Saints Defense

The Saints have a top-10 caliber front four, while the Bengals offensive line has struggled to this point in the season. New Orleans has an advantage in the trenches in this contest.

Betting Notes

  • The Bengals are 3-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Bengals are 0-5 on overs this season.
  • Joe Burrow is 18-13 against the spread in his career.
  • Joe Burrow is 14-16-1 on overs in his career.
  • Zac Taylor is 28-26 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Zac Taylor is 23-30-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Bengals Offense

  • The Bengals are scoring 21.6 points per game, good for 16th in the league.
  • Cincinnati is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, among running backs, Joe Mixon is 19th in yards rushing and 12th in yards receiving.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has 32 receptions on 53 targets for 343 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Chase has a team-leading 28% target share and a 37% air yards share.
  • Tee Higgins has 20 receptions on 28 targets for 315 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Higgins has a 14.8% target share and a 23.7% air yards share.
  • Tyler Boyd has 15 receptions on 23 targets for 234 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Boyd has a 12.2% target share and a 16.9% air yards share.
  • Hayden Hurst has 20 receptions on 28 targets for 157 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Hurst has a 14.8% target share with an 8.5% air yards share.
  • Per TruMedia, Ja’Marr Chase has played 259 snaps on the perimeter and 67 in the slot.
  • Tee Higgins has played 148 snaps on the perimeter and 36 in the slot.
  • Tyler Boyd has played 49 snaps on the perimeter and 226 in the slot.
  • Hayden Hurst has played 148 snaps as an inline tight end, 32 on the perimeter, and 47 in the slot.

Saints Defense

  • The Saints have allowed 25.6 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Saints have allowed the tenth-most yards rushing and the second-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • New Orleans has given up the eighth-most yards receiving on the 16th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • New Orleans has given up the fourth-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this year.
  • The Saints have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving on the 27th-most receptions to tight ends this season.

This is What You’re Betting On in Saints vs. Bengals

A bet on the Saints is built on Andy Dalton playing well against his original team. New Orleans will be down both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, which reduces the ceiling of this offense. Ultimately, Dalton is capable of stringing together another good outing in this spot. What you need here is the Saints' pass rush to derail this game against the Bengals' struggling offensive line. New Orleans has one of the loudest venues in the sport, which will be an asset in that phase. Your biggest concern with a Saints bet is that Joe Burrow returns to Louisiana and destroys a Saints secondary that is down Marshon Lattimore.

A bet on the Bengals is always a bet on Joe Burrow and his high-end assortment of skill position players. The Saints' front against the Bengals' offensive line is a concern here. Tack on that this is the Bengals' second road game in a row, and that New Orleans is a tough place to play, and you have a few concerns in this contest. Ultimately, Joe Burrow isn’t the kind of guy that goes back to his old stomping grounds (he won a National Championship at LSU) and lays an egg in a game his team needs to win. The Bengals defense continues to be a unit that plays above their talent level. Factor in that the Saints are down two wide receivers and that their best cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, and there are a number of realistic paths to a Bengals win here.

Awards Market Ramifications: Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.

Winner/Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Bengals in winner pools, and I expect that I’ll be higher than consensus on Cincinnati in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: I will take the Bengals in at least one ATS tournament entry. I bet them earlier in the week, and I’d be willing to take them at their adjusted line.

Survivor Pool: This game should be avoided in survivor pools.


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