Analysis
10/12/22
9 min read
Matchups Week 6: Commanders at Bears
Thursday Night Football: Washington Commanders (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)
Opening Spread: Bears -1.
Opening Game Total: 39.5.
Opening Team Totals: Bears (20.25), Commanders (19.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened between a pick’em and Bears -1.
- This line has moved to Bears +.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bears -1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest releases their lines Thursday afternoon.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 38.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Notable Injuries
Bears: IR: OG Cody Whitehair.
Commanders: IR: C Chase Roullier, C/G Wes Schweitzer. Out: Edge Chase Young. Questionable: QB Carson Wentz, WR Jahan Dotson, TE Logan Thomas, RT Sam Cosmi, LB David Mayo, CB William Jackson III.
The Bears Offense vs. Commanders Defense
Chicago has a bottom-five offensive line that is struggling in pass protection. Washington has a middle-of-the-pack front four with Young still sidelined. Two weeks ago, Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence derailed the Bears' passing game getting consistent interior pressure. Washington has one of the NFL's better defensive tackle duos in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. That pair could be a big problem for Chicago this Thursday.
Betting Notes
- The Bears are 2-2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bears are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Justin Fields is 5-9-1 against the spread in his career.
- Fields is 5-10 on overs in his career.
- Coach Matt Eberflus is 2-2-1 against the spread in his career as a head coach.
- Eberflus is 2-3 on overs in his career as a head coach.
Bears Offense
- The Bears are scoring 17.2 points per game, good for 27th in the league.
- Chicago is last in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Fields is 31st in the league in yards passing. He’s 10th in yards per attempt, and he’s seventh in air yards per attempt.
- Fields has faced the 12th most pressures, the 14th most hurries and he’s taken the fourth most sacks this season.
- Fields is fifth in yards rushing among quarterbacks.
- Per TruMedia, Bears running backs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert have combined for 507 yards rushing on 103 carries and four rushing touchdowns on 19 red zone carries.
- Per the Edge, WR Darnell Mooney leads the Bears in target share (24.7%) and air yards share (46.3%).
- Per TruMedia, Mooney has played 114 snaps on the perimeter and 124 in the slot.
- WR Equanimeous St. Brown has played 149 snaps on the perimeter, eight as an inline tight end and 54 in the slot.
- TE Cole Kmet has played 150 snaps as an inline tight end, 17 on the perimeter and 70 in the slot.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 25.6 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Washington is 19th in net yards passing allowed per game and 14th in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Washington is seventh in the league in sacks with 14 and 27th in interceptions with one.
- The Commanders held Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to 20 yards rushing on nine carries in Week 3.
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the 20th most yards rushing and the 20th most yards receiving to running backs.
- Washington has given up the fourth most yards receiving on the 14th most receptions to wide receivers.
- The Commanders have given up the 11th most PPR points to wide receivers on the perimeter and the fourth slot receivers.
- Washington has yielded the 27th most yards receiving on the 29th most receptions to tight ends.
Commanders Offense vs. Bears Defense
Washington’s solid offensive line is sliding toward below-average territory now since they are down to their third center in Nick Martin. The Commanders left side is rock solid with LG Andrew Norwell and former Bears' OT Charles Leno Jr. at left tackle. The Bears front four is a below-average group with a high-quality edge rusher in Robert Quinn. Consider this a relative draw in the trenches.
Betting Notes
- Washington is 1-4 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Wentz is 43-47 against the spread in his career.
- Wentz is 42-48 on overs in his career.
- Commanders' coach Ron Rivera is 90-84-4 against the spread in his career as a head coach.
- Rivera is 89-87-2 on overs in his career as a coach.
Commanders Offense
- The Commanders are scoring 18 points per game, good for 26th in the league.
- Washington is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Wentz is fifth in the league in yards passing, 30th in yards per attempt and 18th in air yards per attempt.
- Wentz has faced the most hurries, the most pressures and he’s taken the third most sacks this season.
- Keep in mind the Commanders have faced two above-average fronts in the Titans and Jaguars as well as two top-tier fronts in the Eagles and Cowboys.
- RB J.D. McKissic is fifth in yards receiving (159) and fourth in receptions (24) among running backs.
- Brian Robinson led the Commanders with nine carries last week after returning from suffering multiple gunshot wounds this summer.
- You can expect McKissic, Robinson and Antonio Gibson to all see action in Washington’s backfield.
- With WR Jahan Dotson sidelined last week Dyami Brown caught two of four targets for 105 yards receiving and two receiving touchdowns. Dotson has four receiving touchdowns on the season, but he has a lower target share than McKissic.
- WR Curtis Samuel leads Washington in target share (21.7%) and receptions (32), but he’s second in yards receiving (281) and third in air yards share (13.2%).
- WR Terry McLaurin leads Washington in air yards share (29.3%) and yards receiving (326). McLaurin is second on the team in receptions (19) and target share (16.3%).
- Per TruMedia, McLaurin is third in the league in perimeter snaps with 259, while seeing 53 in the slot.
- Samuel is fourth in the league in slot snaps with 193, while seeing three as an inline tight end and 68 on the perimeter.
- TE Logan Thomas has played 68 snaps as an inline tight end, 14 on the perimeter and 112 in the slot.
- TE John Bates has played 74 snaps as an inline tight end, eight on the perimeter and 51 in the slot.
Bears Defense
- The Bears have allowed 21.2 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Chicago is ninth in net yards passing allowed per game and 31st in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Chicago is 25th in the league in sacks with eight and 10th in interceptions with five.
- Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the fifth most yards rushing and the 18th most yards receiving to running backs.
- Chicago has given up the 24th most yards receiving on the 27th most receptions to wide receivers.
- The Bears have yielded the 27th most yards receiving on the 29th most receptions to tight ends.
This is What You’re Betting On in Bears vs. Commanders
After missing last week, Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson was listed as a full participant in practice on Monday and Tuesday. Those practices are walkthroughs, so make sure you keep an eye on Johnson’s status heading into kickoff.
A bet on the Bears is a bet on a scrappy, high-effort team that wins games behind strong defensive efforts. A bet on Chicago is always a bet on the Bears' defense. Johnson’s availability is a big one in this contest as Washington has a talented, young pass-catching group. The Bears' secondary will be at a considerable disadvantage if Johnson can’t go.
Fields is coming off his best game of the season (by a mile) in Minnesota last week. If you’re considering a bet on Chicago, your biggest concern is the Bears' bottom-tier offensive line mitigating Washington’s front in pass protection, particularly in the interior. Fields' mobility is an asset. However, the Bears passing attack is severely limited by their bottom-five offensive line and one of the NFL's thinnest wide receiver groups.
A bet on the Commanders is a bet on a roster with a number of talented players in important positions. But it comes with volatility at quarterback. Washington has a better roster than Chicago, plain and simple. Consistency is the issue for Washington. Wentz has his moments, but there have been more inconsistent outings than good ones this season.
If you’re betting on Washington, you’re betting on Wentz to play well against a beatable Bears team. Washington has a number of players on the injury report this week, which is something needing to be monitored as we get closer to kickoff. Washington's injuries paired with Wentz’s struggles with consistency are my biggest concerns on a Commanders’ bet.
Both of these teams are under 500 and in need of a win, but there is even more urgency for 1-4 Washington. They are at the point where a quarterback or even a head coaching change is on the horizon if things don’t improve soon.
Per TruMedia, throughout the last 150 games played on Thursday night, home teams are 80-67-4 ATS during that span. On average, home teams have covered by just shy of one point, while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points during this sample. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m leaning towards Washington in winner pools. I’m using the word lean due to Washington’s injury report, so I won’t make any final decisions until that situation is clearer.
Spread Pool: I’m going to wait until the injury report is clearer, but I will take Washington or pass on this contest.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
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