Betting

Matchups Week 5: Texans at Jaguars

Texans Jaguars

Houston Texans (0-3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)

Opening Spread: Jaguars -7

Opening Game Total: 44.5

Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (25.75), Texans (18.75)

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns

The Line Report

  •         This line opened as Jaguars -7.
  •         This line has moved slightly down to Jaguars -6.5.
  •         DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jaguars -7.5.
  •         Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jaguars -7.
  •         This total opened between 44.5 and 45 points.
  •         This total has stabilized at 44.5 points as of Thursday morning.

Notable Injuries

Jaguars: Questionable: WR Zay Jones, DL Folorunso Fatukasi.

Texans: Questionable: WR Chris Moore, TE Brevin Jordan, Edge Jonathan Greenard, DT Maliek Collins, LB Blake Cashman, CB Derek Stingley Jr.

The Jaguars Offense vs. Texans Defense

The Jaguars have a fringe top-ten offensive line, while the Texans have a bottom-tier front four. The Jaguars’ offensive line has an edge in the trenches against Houston.

Betting Notes

  • The Jaguars are 2-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Jaguars are 3-1 on overs this season.

Jaguars Offense

  • The Jaguars are scoring 26.3 points per game, tied for sixth in the league.
  • Jacksonville is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
  • Per TruMedia, Trevor Lawrence is 17th in the league in yards passing and 21st in yards per attempt.
  • Among running backs, James Robinson is 12th in carries (59), eighth in red zone carries (12), and 15th in yards rushing (259). Robinson has caught six-of-seven targets for 33 yards receiving.
  • Christian Kirk is 14th in the league in targets (36), 27th in receptions (20), tenth in yards receiving (327), and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (three). Kirk has a 27.9% target share and a 33% team air yards share.
  • Per the Edge, Zay Jones is second on the team with a 22.6% target share while Marvin Jones is third with a 14.8% target share. Jones is second on the team with a 30.3% air yards share.
  • Evan Engram has a 12.5% target share with a 10.4% air yards share.

Texans Defense

  • The Texans have allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
  • Houston is 29th in net yards passing allowed per game and 31st in net yards rushing allowed per game.
  • Houston is sixth in the league in sacks with 11 and tied for ninth in interceptions with four.
  • Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing and the tenth-most yards receiving to running backs.
  • Houston has allowed the 11th-most yards receiving on the eighth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
  • The Texans have allowed the 19th-most yards receiving on the eighth-fewest receptions to tight ends this year.

The Texans Offense vs. Jaguars Defense

The Texans’ offensive line and the Jaguars’ front four have both been better than I expected. I have both groups as fringe top-ten lines currently. I’m treating this as a relative stalemate in the trenches.

Betting Notes

  • The Texans are 2-1-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Texans are 2-2 on overs this season.

Texans Offense

  • The Texans are scoring 18.3 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
  • Houston is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing.
  • Per TruMedia, Davis Mills is 19th in the league in yards passing and 31st in yards per attempt.
  • Dameon Pierce is ninth among running backs in yards rushing (313), tenth in carries (60), and ninth in red zone carries (11). Pierce has caught all ten of his targets for 43 yards receiving.
  • Brandin Cooks is 14th in the league in targets (36), and 27th in receptions (20), with 215 yards receiving and a touchdown. Cooks has a 25.9% target share and a 30.2% air yards share.
  • Per the Edge, Nick Collins is second on the team in target share (15.1%) and air yards share (26.5%).
  • Tight ends O.J. Howard (94 snaps), Brevin Jordan (63 snaps), Jordan Akins (35 snaps), and Pharaoh Brown (146) are all seeing notable playing time.

Jaguars Defense

  • The Jaguars have allowed 16.8 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
  • Jacksonville is 14th in net yards passing allowed per game and eighth in net yards rushing allowed per game.
  • Jacksonville is 14th in the league in sacks with nine and tied for first in interceptions with seven.
  • Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the tenth-fewest yards rushing and the second-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • Jacksonville has yielded the 19th-most yards receiving on the sixth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • The Jaguars have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving on the ninth-fewest receptions to tight ends this season.

This is What You’re Betting On in Jaguars vs. Texans

A bet on the Jaguars is a bet on an ascending team that went into Philadelphia last week and nearly knocked off the Eagles. Trevor Lawrence is playing like a former first-overall pick, elevating his average supporting cast. If you’re betting on the Jaguars in this spot, you are betting on Lawrence continuing his strong level of play. The Jaguars’ defense is young and fast. It’s also generating pressure and causing turnovers at a high-end rate. The Jaguars’ defense gets a struggling Texans’ offense this week. Even if Lawrence plays at or below expectations in this contest, the Jaguars’ defense has a chance of carrying this game.

A bet on the Texans is a bet on a still winless team with a struggling offense. While Houston’s passing attack has been subpar to this point, rookie running back Dameon Pierce has been very good. Houston’s defense continues to be an overachieving unit, as you would not think this defense is in the top ten in sacks and interceptions after looking at it on paper. But it is. If you’re betting on Houston you’re either betting on the Texans’ defense keeping this contest close, or on their struggling offense taking a step forward against rival Jacksonville.

Awards Market Ramifications: Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is a Coach of the Year contender. Jaguars edge Travon Walker is a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender. Texans running back Dameon Pierce is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Jaguars in winner pools, though I expect to be lower than consensus on them in confidence pools. I’ll have Jacksonville at the end of the -7 home favorites in that format, at minimum.

Spread Pool: I was surprised that Jacksonville was a full seven-point favorite, I was expecting them to be around five. Something that I’ve taken note of here is that Circa has the Jaguars -7 and DraftKings rounded up to Jaguars -7.5. DraftKings Pick’Em tournament does not have any flat lines, every game has a hook, so there are no pushes. Their oddsmakers elected to make the Jaguars a tougher choice this week on purpose.

Survivor Pool: I’ll be avoiding the Jaguars in survivor pools, but they are an interesting contrarian option in a week where multiple heavyweights are greater than one-score favorites.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 14-6

Props 2022: 13-7

WATCH MORE: Michael Vick on Trevor Lawrence’s 5 Turnover Game

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