Betting

Matchups Week 5: Seahawks at Saints

Geno Smith Seahawks vs. Saints 2021

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

Opening Spread: Saints -5.5

Opening Game Total: 45

Opening Team Totals: Saints (25.25), Seahawks (19.75)

Weather: Dome

The Line Report

  • This line opened at Saints -4 at some locations, but was quickly driven up to Saints -5.5.
  • This has settled at Saints -5.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Saints -5.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Saints -5.5.
  • This total opened between 45 and 45.5 points.
  • This total has settled at 45.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Saints: IR: LT Trevor Penning; Questionable: QB Jameis Winston, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Michael Thomas, WR Jarvis Landry, LG Andrus Peat, S Marcus Maye

Seahawks: IR: S Jamal Adams; Questionable: RB Kenneth Walker III, LG Damien Lewis

The Saints Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

New Orleans has a fringe top-10 offensive line, while the Seahawks have a bottom-tier front four. The Saints’ offensive line has a trench advantage in this contest.

New Orleans has most of its relevant skill-position players on the injury report. At full strength, Kamara paired with the Saints’ wide receiver trio is going to be a lot for Seattle’s mediocre secondary to handle.

Betting Notes

  • The Saints are 1-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Saints are 2-2 on overs this season.

Saints Offense

  • The Saints are scoring 19 points per game, good for 18th in the league.
  • New Orleans is 10th in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
  • Alvin Kamara has already missed two games this season. However, if he’s ready to go in this matchup, I’ll be immediately checking his reception prop to see if I can hit the over. I’ll like the over even more if Andy Dalton ends up starting at quarterback. A 3.5 line is ideal, I’d still consider 4.5 at the right odds.
  • Per TruMedia, Chris Olave is fourth in the league in air yards share. Olave is 17th in target share (25.9%), and he’s 15th in targets (36). Olave has played 135 snaps on the perimeter and 43 in the slot.
  • Michael Thomas missed last week’s game in London and remains on the injury report.
  • Jarvis Landry began the season with a spike week where he caught seven passes for 114 yards receiving. Landry has eight catches for 54 yards receiving over the last three games.
  • Tight end Juwan Johnson has a 12.2% target share, with 71 snaps as an in-line tight end, 67 in the slot and 23 on the perimeter.

Seahawks Defense

  • The Seahawks have allowed 28.8 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
  • Keep in mind that the Seahawks are coming off a shootout in Detroit, where they gave up 45 points to the Lions. The Lions are the league’s best scoring offense.
  • Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the second-most yards rushing and the fifth-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the 12th-fewest yards receiving on the fourth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
  • Seattle has been torched for the most yards receiving on the 13th-most receptions to tight ends this year.

The Seahawks Offense vs. Saints Defense

Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, while the Saints have a fringe top-10 front four. The Saints’ defensive front has a trench advantage against Seattle.

Betting Notes

  • The Seahawks are 2-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Seahawks are 2-2 on overs this season.

Seahawks Offense

  • The Seahawks are scoring 23.8 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
  • Seattle is 14th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
  • Keep in mind that Seattle is coming off a game in Detroit where they hung 48 points against the Lions’ league-worst defense.
  • Seattle’s backfield did not yield any fantasy-relevant performances in the first three games. However, during last week’s shootout in Detroit, Rashaad Penny exploded for 151 yards rushing on 17 carries with two scores.
  • Per TruMedia, DK Metcalf has a 26.9% target share and a 37.5% target share. Metcalf has seen 163 of his 193 snaps on the perimeter.
  • Tyler Lockett’s general role is very comparable to Metcalf’s with a 26.2% target share and 37.8% air yards share. Lockett has seen 113 snaps on the perimeter and 72 in the slot.
  • Both Will Dissly and Noah Fant are seeing significant snaps, but both have target shares below 10%. That’s specifically disappointing for a dynamic athlete like Fant.

Saints Defense

  • The Saints have allowed 24 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, New Orleans has allowed the 13th-most yards rushing and the second-fewest yards receiving to running backs this year.
  • The Saints have allowed the tenth-most yards receiving on the 12th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • The Saints have allowed the sixth-most PPR points to slot receivers this year.
  • New Orleans has shut down opposing tight ends, giving up the second-fewest yards receiving on the third-fewest receptions to the position.

This is What You’re Betting On in Saints vs. Seahawks

A bet on the Saints is a bet on a well-built roster with volatility at the quarterback position. While Winston might be a better option than Andy Dalton for fantasy purposes, I don’t view Winston as a notable upgrade when it comes to winning. As mentioned above, if Dalton starts and Kamara returns to action where phrases like “pitch count” aren’t being used, Kamara has a great matchup in the passing game.

In general, the Saints are a better roster than Seattle at virtually every position group but wide receiver. Even that’s close when New Orleans is at full strength. Seattle is coming off a massive spike week on offense, while the Saints are in desperation mode at 1-3. Injuries and the variance of coming back from a London game are the only reasons I don’t love the Saints in this spot. Especially, because I generally want to bet against Geno Smith’s offense after their huge game.

A bet on the Seahawks is a bet on a talent-poor team continuing to play better than expected. Last week’s offensive explosion in Detroit is almost certainly an anomaly. That said, you have to give Smith credit for his consistent, efficient play that’s guided Seattle to a 2-2 start. If you’re betting on Seattle, you’re betting on Smith’s strong play continuing. You’re also betting against either Saints quarterback, with New Orleans coming off a losing trip to London. Otherwise, if you’re betting on Seattle, you are betting on a team that has to beat a significantly better roster on the road in New Orleans.

Awards Market Ramifications: Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking the Saints in winner pools, and I expect to be higher than the consensus on them in confidence pools. I will have New Orleans ranked adjacent to the Jaguars.

Spread Pool: I want to bet against Smith after his monster week in Detroit. Seattle is also playing its second road game in two weeks, while the Saints are 1-3 and in desperate need of a win. Those are all factors I find very appealing. That said, I don’t exactly trust the Saints; they are coming off a London game, which adds an unwanted layer of variance. Also, many of their best skill-position players are on the injury report. I’m either going to take New Orleans or pass here.

Survivor Pool: The Saints are an aggressive option in survivor pools in a week with a number of 7-point or greater home favorites. On last week’s slate, I may have taken them in an entry. This week, I think I’ll pass in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 14-6

Props 2022: 13-7

WATCH MORE: Josh Larky’s Fantasy World

 

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