Matchups Week 4: Rams vs. 49ers

Cooper Kupp Rams vs. 49ers

Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Opening Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Opening Game Total: 43.5.

Team Totals: 49ers (23), Rams (20.5).

Weather: Outdoors, 15mph plus winds possible.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as 49ers -2.5.
  • This line has moved to 49ers -2 as of Saturday evening.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers -2.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers -1.5.
  • This total opened at 43.5 points.
  • This total has moved down to 42.5 points as of Saturday evening.

Notable Injuries

49ers: Out: LT Trent Williams. Questionable: DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Arik Armstead.

Rams: IR: WR Van Jefferson. Out: LG David Edwards, C Brian Allen, CB David Long Jr.

The 49ers Offense vs. Rams Defense

The loss of left tackle Trent Williams is a massive one for the 49ers, making them a below-average offensive line. The San Francisco interior offensive line struggled before Williams was injured last week. Aaron Donald has a significant advantage in this contest, where San Francisco’s familiarity with Donald is the only real positive from their end in this individual matchup. Rams’ edge Leonard Floyd is in a good position here with Williams out as well.

Notes and Observations

  • The 49ers are 1-2 against the spread this season. 
  • The 49ers are 0-3 on overs this season.
  • The 49ers have the fourth-fewest passing yards this season.
  • Per The Edge, Jeff Wilson has been the primary running back for San Francisco in each of the last two games.
  • The Rams have allowed the eighth fewest yards rushing and the sixth-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • Deebo Samuel is 16th in the league in target share (27.5%), while Brandon Aiyuk leads the team in air yards share (40.2%).
  • The Rams have allowed the second most yards receiving on the second most receptions to wide receivers this season.
  • George Kittle made his debut last week, catching 4-of-5 targets for 28 yards.
  • The Rams have allowed the fourth fewest yards receiving on the sixth-fewest receptions to tight ends this season. 

The Rams Offense vs. the 49ers Defense

The 49ers have a high-end front four, while the Rams offensive line was an average unit when they were at full strength. Now that they are down their left guard David Edwards and their center Brian Allen, the 49ers front has a significant edge in this contest.

Notes and Observations

  • The Rams are 1-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Rams are 1-2 on overs this season.
  • Per The Edge, Matthew Stafford is 15th in the league in yards passing and tenth in yards per attempt.
  • Darrell Henderson was the primary runner for the Rams on opening day. Cam Akers led a 60/40 split in running back opportunities in Week 2. Cam Akers was the primary runner for the Rams last week.
  • The 49ers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards rushing and the 12th-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • Cooper Kupp leads the league in receptions (28), he’s sixth in yards receiving (280), second in target share (35%), and he’s fourth in air yards share (46.1%).
  • Allen Robinson has seen five targets in the last two games, but he has not yet exceeded 53 yards receiving in a game yet this season.
  • The 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards receiving on the second-fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • Among tight ends, Tyler Higbee is second in the league in target share (24%).
  • The 49ers have allowed the fewest yards receiving on the fewest receptions to tight ends this season.

This is What You’re Betting On in Rams vs. 49ers

The Rams lost to the 49ers twice during the regular season last year. Los Angeles was blown out in San Francisco, and the 49ers made an improbable comeback to take down the Rams in overtime on the last day of the regular season. The Rams exacted their revenge in the NFC Championship game, beating the 49ers 20-17.

A bet on the 49ers is a bet on Jimmy Garoppolo’s offense being significantly better than they were last week in Denver. You don’t need the 49ers to approach 30 total points to win this side, but this offense can’t be a liability like it was last week. You’re betting on that improvement with elite LT Trent Williams sidelined. The Rams are missing their starting left guard and their starting center. The 49ers front would have had an advantage in the trenches if the Rams offensive line was at full strength. As things stand now? The clearest path to a 49ers’ win and cover is that their front four dominates this game. Your biggest concern on a 49ers bet is that their offense was non-functioning last week in Denver, and they’ll be playing with a trench disadvantage themselves.

A bet on the Rams is a bet on the defending champs, who have been quietly underwhelming through the first three games this season. The 49ers offense was hard to watch last Sunday night in Denver. If you’re betting on the Rams, you’re betting on San Francisco’s offense to continue struggling. Your biggest concern on a Rams bet is that their semi-struggling offense will be playing with a significant disadvantage in the trenches. The positive there is Sean McVay is well equipped to help his offense mitigate the 49ers push through scheme.

Rams vs. 49ers Pool Picks

Awards Market Ramifications: Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp is again a contender in that race. Aaron Donald is a Defensive Player of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: Despite being the favorite, the 49ers are projected to be the far less popular pick in winner pools on multiple platforms. With that in mind, I think I will take a little of both teams in large field winner pools with weekly payouts. I’ll treat this game as a coin flip in confidence pools where I’ll have whoever I take towards the bottom of my rankings.

Spread Pool: My initial instinct was to take the Rams getting points here. But with the Rams being down two offensive linemen and current public perception overwhelmingly on Los Angeles, I think I will pass on this game in spread pools. I am considering the Rams as a teaser option since I’ll be able to get them past the key number of seven. My concern there is the same as it is taking them directly against the spread: the 49ers front could dominate this game.

Survivor: This game should be avoided for survivor purposes.

WATCH MORE: Former NFL Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Cassel gives his analysis for Rams vs. 49ers.

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