Betting
9/15/22
6 min read
Matchups Week 2: Jaguars vs. Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1)
Spread: Jaguars +4.
Game Total: 45.5
Team Totals: Jaguars (20.75), Colts (24.75)
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars +4.
- This line moved up to Jaguars +4.5 before moving back down to Jaguars +4 and Jaguars +3.5 during the middle of this week.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jaguars +4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jaguars +4.
- This total opened at 45.5 points with some 46-point options available.
- This total moved up to 46.5 points early in the week. It has since come back down to 45.5 with some 45-point options available. Weather concerns could be behind this downward shift on the game total.
Notable Injuries
Jaguars: None.
Colts: WR Michael Pittman Jr. (Questionable), WR Alec Pierce (Questionable), DT DeForest Buckner (Questionable), LB Shaquille Leonard (Questionable), CB Kenny Moore (Questionable).
The Jaguars Offense vs. the Colts Defense
Given the familiarity between these two divisional opponents, I’m treating this as if the Colts have a slight trench edge vs. Jacksonville. Star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner landed on the injury report after not practicing on Wednesday due to a hip issue. If you’re considering a bet on this game, keep an eye on Buckner’s status. Linebacker Shaquille Leonard missed Week 1 in Houston with a back issue, but he practiced on Wednesday.
Notes and Observations
- The Jaguars are 0-1 against the spread this season.
- The Jaguars are 1-0 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Trevor Lawrence was 16th in play-action pass percentage in Week 1.
- Lawrence was 14th in play-action pass percentage among quarterbacks with 800 snaps last season.
- Among Week 1 starters, Lawrence was fifth in air yards per attempt. That’s up from Lawrence’s 15th ranking in air yards per attempt among QBs with at least 800 snaps last season.
- It’s only been one game, but Lawrence’s play-action percentage is similar to last year’s, while his air yards per attempt are way up in the Jaguars' new offense.
- Despite playing an entire overtime period, the Colts gave up the 16th-most rushing yards and the 12th-most receiving yards to running backs in Week 1.
- Indianapolis allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the 13th-fewest receptions to enemy wide receivers in the opener.
- The Colts gave up the ninth-most receiving yards on the 16th-most receptions to tight ends last week.
- Remember that Colts star linebacker Shaquille Leonard missed Week 1 and that Indianapolis played the full overtime period in Houston.
The Colts Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
The strength of the Colts' offense is their top-ten caliber offensive line backed by running back Jonathan Taylor, who ran all over the Texans in Week 1. Jacksonville has a pair of young, blue chip edge rushers in Josh Allen and this year’s No. 1 overall pick, Travon Walker. That EDGE duo could give the Colts problems in pass protection. From a macro sense, the Colts line has a moderate edge in pass protection and a significant one in the run game.
Notes and Observations
- The Colts are 0-1 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 0-1 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Matt Ryan was 28th in play-action pass percentage in Week 1.
- Ryan was 12th in play-action pass percentage among quarterbacks with at least 800 snaps last season. Carson Wentz, the Colts' starting quarterback last season, was first in this category.
- Despite playing in a negative game script for most of Week 1, Ryan was 24th in air yards per attempt last week.
- Among quarterbacks with at least 800 snaps last season, Ryan was 20th in air yards per attempt.
- The Jaguars gave up the 12th-fewest rushing yards and the third-most receiving yards to running backs last week.
- Jacksonville allowed the 19th-most receiving yards on the 14th-most receptions to wide receivers in Week 1.
- The Jaguars surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards on the 15th-most receptions to tight ends in Week 1.
This is What You’re Betting On in Jaguars vs. Colts
A bet on the Jaguars is a bet on an unproven football team that has some young, premium talent on their roster. Any bet on any team is a bet on the talent and reliability of that team’s quarterback. Trevor Lawrence certainly has the raw materials, but he is presently an inconsistent quarterback. A bet on the Jaguars starts as a bet on Lawrence exceeding expectations in an individual matchup.
An X-factor in any Jaguars bet is the ceiling outcome for their Edge duo of Josh Allen and Travon Walker. Those two pass rushers paired with Lawrence are the foundation of the Jaguars' future. A positive for Jacksonville here is they have no significant injuries as of this writing, while the Colts have some of their best players on the injury report. My biggest concern on a Jaguars bet is that the Colts are a more stable football operation at this point.
A bet on the Colts is a bet on Frank Reich’s solid, physical football operation. The Colts’ offensive line has an edge in the run game against Jacksonville. If I’m betting on the Colts in this spot, I’m basing that bet on Indianapolis taking full advantage of that edge. Rain and wind might actually help the Colts, so I’ll be keeping a close watch on the weather in this contest.
I have two core concerns with Indianapolis in this spot. The first is that the Colts will play their second road game in as many weeks after playing the whole overtime period in Houston in Week 1. The second is that I’ve bet against prime Matt Ryan in outdoor weather games. In this spot, we are getting 37-year-old Matt Ryan in his second start with a new team.
Winner/Confidence Pool: This will end up being a last-minute decision for me, but I will consider taking the Jaguars as a differentiator option in my large, weekly winner pool. I expect to rank the Colts in the bottom third of my confidence rankings this week.
Spread Pool: I always at least consider tournament options where I can get a line at a value. Generally, however, I’m going to avoid this game against the spread.
Survivor: Avoid this contest for survivor purposes.
WATCH MORE: Our Experts Recap All of Week 1
