Betting

9/10/22

4 min read

Matchups Week 1: Lions vs. Eagles

By Ryan Reynolds

Week 9 Starts/Sits

Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Lions +4

Game Total: 48.5

Team Totals: Lions (22.25), Eagles (26.25)

Weather: Dome.

The Line Report

  • The consensus line for this contest is Lions +4. There are a few Lions +4.5 options available.
  • This line opened as Lions +3.5.
  • This line has ranged from Lions +3.5 up to Lions +5.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Lions +3.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Lions +4.
  • The consensus total is 48.5 points.
  • This total opened between 46.5 and 47 points. This total’s peak has been 49-points.

Notable Injuries

Lions: WR Jameson Williams (Out), OG Tommy Kraemer (Out), C Frank Ragnow (Questionable).

Eagles: OT Andre Dillard (IR).

The Lions Offense vs. the Eagles Defense

The Lions offensive line vs. the Eagles defensive line is a matchup of two top-ten caliber units. Lions Guard Tommy Kraemer missing this game is certainly not a positive as the strength of the Eagles defensive line is their interior. If center Frank Ragnow starts to trend towards missing this contest, this roughly even matchup would turn into an advantage for the Eagles front.

Notes and Observations

  • The Lions were 11-6 against the spread in 2021.
  • Detroit was 7-10 on overs in 2021.
  • The Eagles gave up the 16th most rushing yards and the eighth most receiving yards to enemy running backs last season.
  • Philadelphia allowed the third fewest yards to wide receivers last season.

The Eagles gave up the sixth most receiving yards and the most receptions to enemy tight ends in 2021. 

The Eagles Offense vs. Lions Defense

Philadelphia’s offensive line has a considerable edge in the trenches against Detroit. The addition of former Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown significantly upgrades the ceiling of Philadelphia’s passing attack. Eagles pass catchers against the Lions secondary give Philadelphia another edge offensively..

Notes and Observations

  • The Eagles were 8-8-1 against the spread in 2021.
  • The Eagles were 10-7 on overs in 2021.
  • Per The Edge, the Lions allowed the 17th most rushing yards to quarterbacks last season.
  • Detroit surrendered the fifth most rushing yards and the fourth fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs last season.
  • The Eagles led the league in rushing last season.
  • Detroit allowed the ninth most receiving yards and the 18th most receptions to wide receivers in 2021.
  • The Lions yielded the second most receiving yards and the fifth most receptions to enemy tight ends last year.
  • Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert was fifth in receiving yards and 14th in receptions among tight ends last season.

This is What You’re Betting On in Lions vs. Eagles

A bet on the Lions is a bet on a scrappy football operation that enters this season with an improved roster. Detroit is at a talent disadvantage in multiple position groups against the Eagles. That said, the 2021 Lions gave several playoff teams with superior rosters competitive games. Detroit even beat a few of them. If you’re betting on the Lions here, you’re doing so with the expectation that Detroit comes out smart and  aggressive as they did against superior opponents last season.

A bet on the Eagles is a bet on a superior roster in this matchup. On offense Philadelphia not only has a trench edge, but their upgraded group of pass catchers will be difficult for Detroit to handle. Defensively Philadelphia doesn’t have a significant talent advantage against the Lions, but they are well equipped to mitigate Detroit’s improved offense. Your biggest concern if you’re an Eagles backer is Jalen Hurts, who has shown flashes despite being inconsistent.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: We should expect the Eagles to be taken in roughly 70% of winner pool lineups. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to put the Eagles on top of the cluster of -4-point favorites in your confidence rankings.

Spread Pool: These are two teams that I’ve been higher than consensus on through most of the offseason. I’d have preferred if they both opened the season against teams that I’m lower than consensus on. I will consider the Eagles in DraftKings Pick’Em tournament as I’ll be getting them at their most advantageous line and there are clear path to the Eagles dominating this game.

Survivor: This contest should be avoided for survivor purposes.

Tags: 2022 NFL season, Betting, Detroit Lions See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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