Below, you’ll find 14 Thursday Night Football player props that I’ve put my money on. For each prop, you’ll get the line, the sportsbook, and why I chose to take the line.
You’ll also notice that with each prop, I provide the implied percentage odds of it hitting. A +170 prop implies a 37% chance of the event happening, so if I’m taking that line, I expect it to hit more than 37% of the time.
In this article, you’ll also find some 2022 WR research I recently did, which helped me identify inefficiency in this week’s prop market.
DeVonta Smith UNDER 51.5 Receiving Yards [-110 (52%) on DraftKings Sportsbook]
- UNDER this number in four of seven games
- HOU pass defense is quietly league average, while their run defense is Bottom-3 in the NFL
- PHI are 14 point favorites so they may not need to pass much
Dameon Pierce MOST Rushing Yards in the Game [+170 (37%) on FanDuel Sportsbook]
- Pierce is averaging over 18 rush attempts per game since becoming the starter in Week 2
- Miles Sanders only has one game above 18 rush attempts all season
- Pierce has 80+ rushing yards in four of six games as a starter
- Miles Sanders has 80+ rushing yards in three of seven games
- While HOU allows 5.7 yards per carry to opposing backs, PHI struggles here too, allowing 4.9 yards per carry
Davis Mills UNDER 32.5 Yards Longest Completion [-110 (52%) on DraftKings Sportsbook]
- The Eagles have only allowed two completions of 33 or more yards all season
- Davis Mills has five completions of 33+ yards on the season, but three were to Brandin Cooks/Nico Collins, neither of whom is playing tonight
Davis Mills UNDER 212.5 Passing Yards [-120 (55%) on DraftKings Sportsbook]
- Eagles are allowing only 183 passing yards per game, according to our free and flagship tool, The Edge
- Mills has been UNDER this number already in three of seven games already, but is without both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins for the first time this season.
Brand New WR Research for 2022
I get it, Davis Mills has struggled this season, and will be without his Top-2 WR options (Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins) against the Eagles in Week 9. However, the NFL is inherently unpredictable, and this occasion called for some snap coding research, followed by some Texans WR long shot bets.
There have been 123 games played to date this season, which means we have 246 team offensive performances. When looking at these 246 offensive performances:
- 97.6% (240 of 246) featured at least one receiver getting at least 40 receiving yards
- 91.1% (224 of 246) featured at least one receiver getting at least 50 receiving yards
- 81.3% (200 of 246) featured at least one receiver getting at least 60 receiving yards
- 69.1% (170 of 246) featured at least one receiver getting at least 70 receiving yards
Chris Moore 40+ Receiving Yards [+168 (37%) on FanDuel Sportsbook], 50+ RecYds [+280 (26%)], 60+ RecYds [+430 (19%)], 70+ RecYds [+630 (14%)]
Phillip Dorsett 40+ Receiving Yards [+106 (49%) on FanDuel Sportsbook], 50+ RecYds [+178 (36%)], 60+ RecYds [+280 (26%)], 70+ RecYds [+410 (20%)]
The deck is stacked against the Houston Texans pass attack in this game, as the Eagles are allowing just 183 passing yards per game to opponents. However, I will generally defer to large sample sizes with strong signal, rather than what I *think* will happen in an individual matchup. With that being said, Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett are the primary WRs for Houston in this contest. All their OVERs at 40/50/60/70+ receiving yards are theoretically strong bets to make based on history.
Phillip Dorsett MOST Receiving Yards in the Game [+600 (14%) on FanDuel Sportsbook]
Chris Moore MOST Receiving Yards in the Game [+800 (11%) on FanDuel Sportsbook]
- The Top-2 Houston pass-catchers in this matchup have just a combined 25% chance of leading the game in receiving yards
- Jalen Hurts (232.5 passing yards) and Davis Mills (212.5 passing yards) have similar enough passing yards props that these odds do not make sense to me
We hope you enjoyed reading about these Thursday Night Football player props. As always, bet responsibly.