Below, you’ll find three Thursday Night Football player props that I’ve put my soft-earned money on. For each line, I provide the sportsbook and the logical/statistical reasoning behind why I bet on the prop.
Update: Thursday afternoon weather reports show a higher probability of wind being a non-factor in this game. I still like the Josh Allen UNDERS, but wind is a much smaller piece of the puzzle now.
Josh Allen Under 270.5 Passing Yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Allen has 253 or fewer yards passing in four of his past five games.
- This is likely due to the elbow injury he’s recently been dealing with.
- The Patriots have only allowed a QB to hit this number in two of 11 games this season.
- There will likely be high winds at Foxborough for this contest.
— Dakota Randall (@DakRandallNESN) November 30, 2022
Josh Allen Under 38.5 Yards Longest Completion (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Allen has been UNDER this number each of the past three weeks since he was diagnosed with an elbow injury.
- The Patriots’ pass defense prevents big plays, as only three of 361 opposing pass attempts have gone for 39+ yards this season.
- Those three completions of 39+ yards came in two of the 11 games this season.
- Again, the wind will likely be a factor in this one.
Devin Singletary Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Devin Singletary has at least 13 carries in five of his past six games.
- He has hit this OVER each of the past three weeks since Josh Allen’s elbow injury was publicly revealed.
- Weather likely impacts the passing game, and the Bills likely have a more run-centric game plan than usual.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these Thursday Night Football player props. As always, bet responsibly.
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