Below, you’ll find 18 Thursday Night Football player props that I’ve put my money on. For each prop, you’ll get the line, the sportsbook, and why I chose to take the line.
You’ll also notice that with each prop, I provide the implied percentage odds of it hitting. A +250 prop implies a 29% chance of the event happening, so if I’m taking that line, I expect it to hit more than 29% of the time.
Weather: Temperature in the 20s with winds rarely above 10 mph. Minimal impact on the game environment.
Aaron Jones UNDER 13.5 Rush Attempts [-115 (53%) on DraftKings]
- Jones has been UNDER this number in six of ten games.
- TEN is a pass funnel defense (including RBs), giving up the second-fewest rushing yards but seventh-most receiving yards per game to RBs, via our flagship tool, The Edge.
- Jones has not had back-to-back games with more than 13 rush attempts this season, and had a season-high 24 carries last week.
- GB has always been conscious of his workload.
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown [+250 (29%) on FanDuel]
- Watson caught three TDs on eight targets in Week 10, with 164 air yards.
- TEN is a pass funnel defense, giving up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- I’d put this closer to a 35-40% chance of happening.
Christian Watson 50+ Receiving Yards [+140 (42%) on FanDuel], 60+ RecYds [+220 (31%) on FD], 70+ RecYds [+350 (22%) on FD], 80+ RecYds [+520 (16%) on FD], 90+ RecYds [+750 (12%) on FD]
- Finally healthy and acclimated to the offense, Christian Watson put up 107 receiving yards on eight targets in Week 10 against DAL.
- TEN has given up 17 pass plays of at least 30 yards, most in the NFL.
- Watson, as the team’s deep threat, should capitalize on this matchup advantage.
Allen Lazard Anytime Touchdown [+210 (32%) on FanDuel]
- Lazard has scored a TD in five of eight games (63%) this season.
- I like the hedge with both the Watson and Lazard anytime TDs, as only one hitting will still help you turn a sizable profit.
Allen Lazard 70+ Receiving Yards [+230 (30%) on FanDuel], 80+ RecYds [+360 (22%) on FD], 90+ RecYds [+520 (16%) on FD]
- Lazard has at least 76 yards in three of eight games (38%).
- Lazard has at least 87 yards in two of eight games (25%).
- Five WRs have topped 80 yards against TEN.
- Nine WRs have topped 70 yards against TEN.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 36.5 Longest Completion [-110 (52%) on DraftKings]
- OVER this number in each of his past three games, completing four total.
- Samari Toure (Week 8), Allen Lazard (Week 9), Christian Watson (Week 10, twice)
- TEN has allowed nine 37+ yard completions this year, including in seven of nine games.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 237.5 Passing Yards [-110 (52%) on FanDuel]
- Seven of nine games, the QB facing TEN has at least 243 passing yards.
- Rodgers has only hit this number in three of ten games, so this is a bet on the Titans’ pass funnel defense and Rodgers playing with a relatively healthy group of WRs in Week 11.
Aaron Rodgers 275+ Passing Yards [+220 (31%) on FanDuel], 300+ PassYds [+390 (20%) on FD]
- Six of nine (67%) of QBs have at least 275 passing yards against TEN.
- Five of nine (56%) of QBs have at least 300 passing yards against TEN.
Treylon Burks 40+ Receiving Yards [+154 (39%) on FanDuel], 50+ RecYds [+255 (28%) on FD], 60+ RecYds [+400 (20%) on FD]
- Burks has at least five targets in three of five games this season.
- Burks ran a route on 76% of Ryan Tannehill dropbacks in his return from IR in Week 10.
- Burks has topped 40 yards in two of five games (40%).
- Rookie WRs generally improve their stats as the season moves along.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these 18 Thursday Night Football player props. As always, bet responsibly.