Betting
11/17/22
4 min read
Josh Larky's Thursday Night Football Player Props
Below, you’ll find 18 Thursday Night Football player props that I’ve put my money on. For each prop, you’ll get the line, the sportsbook, and why I chose to take the line.
You’ll also notice that with each prop, I provide the implied percentage odds of it hitting. A +250 prop implies a 29% chance of the event happening, so if I’m taking that line, I expect it to hit more than 29% of the time.
Weather: Temperature in the 20s with winds rarely above 10 mph. Minimal impact on the game environment.
Aaron Jones UNDER 13.5 Rush Attempts [-115 (53%) on DraftKings]
- Jones has been UNDER this number in six of ten games.
- TEN is a pass funnel defense (including RBs), giving up the second-fewest rushing yards but seventh-most receiving yards per game to RBs, via our flagship tool, The Edge.
- Jones has not had back-to-back games with more than 13 rush attempts this season, and had a season-high 24 carries last week.
- GB has always been conscious of his workload.
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown [+250 (29%) on FanDuel]
- Watson caught three TDs on eight targets in Week 10, with 164 air yards.
- TEN is a pass funnel defense, giving up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- I'd put this closer to a 35-40% chance of happening.
Christian Watson 50+ Receiving Yards [+140 (42%) on FanDuel], 60+ RecYds [+220 (31%) on FD], 70+ RecYds [+350 (22%) on FD], 80+ RecYds [+520 (16%) on FD], 90+ RecYds [+750 (12%) on FD]
- Finally healthy and acclimated to the offense, Christian Watson put up 107 receiving yards on eight targets in Week 10 against DAL.
- TEN has given up 17 pass plays of at least 30 yards, most in the NFL.
- Watson, as the team's deep threat, should capitalize on this matchup advantage.
Allen Lazard Anytime Touchdown [+210 (32%) on FanDuel]
- Lazard has scored a TD in five of eight games (63%) this season.
- I like the hedge with both the Watson and Lazard anytime TDs, as only one hitting will still help you turn a sizable profit.
Allen Lazard 70+ Receiving Yards [+230 (30%) on FanDuel], 80+ RecYds [+360 (22%) on FD], 90+ RecYds [+520 (16%) on FD]
- Lazard has at least 76 yards in three of eight games (38%).
- Lazard has at least 87 yards in two of eight games (25%).
- Five WRs have topped 80 yards against TEN.
- Nine WRs have topped 70 yards against TEN.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 36.5 Longest Completion [-110 (52%) on DraftKings]
- OVER this number in each of his past three games, completing four total.
- Samari Toure (Week 8), Allen Lazard (Week 9), Christian Watson (Week 10, twice)
- TEN has allowed nine 37+ yard completions this year, including in seven of nine games.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 237.5 Passing Yards [-110 (52%) on FanDuel]
- Seven of nine games, the QB facing TEN has at least 243 passing yards.
- Rodgers has only hit this number in three of ten games, so this is a bet on the Titans' pass funnel defense and Rodgers playing with a relatively healthy group of WRs in Week 11.
Aaron Rodgers 275+ Passing Yards [+220 (31%) on FanDuel], 300+ PassYds [+390 (20%) on FD]
- Six of nine (67%) of QBs have at least 275 passing yards against TEN.
- Five of nine (56%) of QBs have at least 300 passing yards against TEN.
Treylon Burks 40+ Receiving Yards [+154 (39%) on FanDuel], 50+ RecYds [+255 (28%) on FD], 60+ RecYds [+400 (20%) on FD]
- Burks has at least five targets in three of five games this season.
- Burks ran a route on 76% of Ryan Tannehill dropbacks in his return from IR in Week 10.
- Burks has topped 40 yards in two of five games (40%).
- Rookie WRs generally improve their stats as the season moves along.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these 18 Thursday Night Football player props. As always, bet responsibly.
WATCH MORE: Is it Christian Watson's Time as Green Bay's WR1?
