Betting
11/10/22
3 min read
Josh Larky's Thursday Night Football Player Props
Below, you'll find ten Thursday Night Football player props I've put my soft earned money on. I provide the line, which sportsbook I took it on, and why I believe it's a good line, logically/statistically.
You'll notice that in addition to the betting odds, I provide the implied odds as a percentage for every bet. If I recommend taking a +310 bet, I expect it to hit more than 24% of the time in the long run, which is the implied odds for the bet.
You'll notice that I didn't take any rushing props in this contest. There is some uncertainty as to what the split will be between both the Falcons and Panthers RB rooms. Cordarrelle Patterson likely takes on a larger workload in Week 10, another week removed from injury, but I'm unsure exactly how many more carries that will result in. Similarly with the Panthers, Chuba Hubbard likely returns from injury in this contest, and I'd anticipate a 60/40 split in D'Onta Foreman's favor, but that's only an educated guess.
Marcus Mariota UNDER 157.5 Passing Yards [+100 (50%) on DraftKings]
- Mariota has been UNDER 150 yards in five of his past six games
- Weather is likely a factor in this contest, with rain/wind expected
Terrace Marshall Anytime Touchdown [+310 (24%) on DraftKings/FanDuel]
- Marshall has five end zone targets over his past two games
- Marshall scored a TD last week
Sneaky WR with 5 (!!!) end zone targets in his past 2 games 🤯
Take 32 seconds to figure out how it is ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/UaF9wKgn5f
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 10, 2022
Terrace Marshall 40+ Receiving Yards [+124 (45%) on FanDuel], 50+ RecYds [+210 (32%) on FanDuel], 60+ RecYds [+350 (22%) on FanDuel], 70+ RecYds [+550 (15%) on FanDuel], 80+ RecYds [+800 (11%) on FanDuel]
- Marshall has been a starting WR each of the past three weeks
- He's had at least 53 yards in two of three games
- He's reached 87 yards in one of three games
- He's had at least six targets in two of three games
- The Falcons are the worst pass defense in the NFL regarding yardage, allowing 300 passing yards per game to opponents, via The Edge
Kyle Pitts 70+ Receiving Yards [+490 (17%) on FanDuel], 80+ Receiving Yards [+750 (12%) on FanDuel]
- Pitts has reached 80 receiving yards in two of his past six contests (33%)
- Pitts had nine targets, catching five for 80 yards when the Falcons faced the Panthers in Week 8 this year
Falcons QB Marcus Mariota on TE Kyle Pitts' lack of production: "I can do a better job of giving Kyle more opportunities"https://t.co/7lk5YN3PLd pic.twitter.com/8lxYzTmwyx
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 10, 2022
Marcus Mariota UNDER 149.5 Passing Yards + Drake London OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards + Kyle Pitts OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards [+475 (17%) on DraftKings]
- This parlay hit in Week 9 against LAC
- Drake London (28.7%) and Kyle Pitts (26.3%) have a combined 55% target share, via our free and flagship tool, The Edge
- Thought experiment: If Mariota throws for 140 yards, Pitts could have 30 yards and London could have 25 yards
- Their 55 combined receiving yards would then account for just 39% of Mariota's passing yards
We hope you enjoyed reading through these ten Thursday Night Football player props. As always, make sure to bet responsibly.
WATCH MORE: Which players should you be buying and selling in fantasy football this week?
