Betting
10/24/22
4 min read
Josh Larky's Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets
Tonight's game likely won't feature great football, but we can hit these Monday Night Football player prop lines to make tonight more interesting. I always search for bets where I think there is a statistical edge when comparing the implied odds to my probability estimates, and found some value for tonight.
Khalil Herbert Anytime Touchdown (+500 on DraftKings Sportsbook, +490 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Herbert has three TDs through six games, but +500 implies only a 16.7% chance of it happening tonight
- Herbert has 15 red zone carries (eight goal line) on the season
- Head Coach Matt Eberflus hinted at a hot hand approach for this game
The Bears seemed to have a regular RB rotation between David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert: 2 or 3 series for DMo, then 1 for Herbert.
Eberflus hinted that may change.
"We're going to go with the hot hand. Whoever's hot right there we're going to stay with him & go from there."
— Alex Shapiro (@AlexShapiroNBCS) October 18, 2022
Khalil Herbert OVER 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Herbert has 38+ rushing yards in five of six games this season
- Patriots have been a league average run defense in 2022
- As mentioned above, Eberflus has hinted at a "hot hand" approach for this game
Khalil Herbert 40+ Rushing Yards (+132 on FanDuel Sportsbook), 50+ (+260), 60+ (+450)
- Continuation of the above bet, as Herbert has hit
- 40+ rushing yards in four of six games (67%, yet implied odds are 43%)
- 50+ in three of six (50%, yet implied odds are 28%)
- 60+ in three of six (50%, yet implied odds are 18%)
Damien Harris OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- CHI allows 4.7 yards per carry to opposing backs
- Harris is averaging just over 13 carries per game when he doesn't leave in the first quarter due to injury
- Mac Jones is returning from a high ankle sprain, expect a run-heavy game plan
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Rhamondre has been over this number each of the past four games, where he split work with Harris in two of those
- CHI allows 4.7 yards per carry to opposing backs
- Mac Jones is returning from a high ankle sprain, expect a run-heavy game plan
Justin Fields OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fields is averaging nine rush attempts per game this season
- He's had at least 47 rushing yards in each of the past four games
Darnell Mooney 50+ Receiving Yards (+116 on FanDuel Sportsbook), 60+ (+194), 70+ (+300)
- Mooney has 50+ receiving yards in each of his past three games
- Mooney has a target share of at least 24% each of the past four games
- Mooney has at least 99 air yards each of the past three games
Jakobi Meyers 60+ Receiving Yards (+146 on FanDuel Sportsbook), 70+ (+225), 80+ (+320)
- Meyers has 60+ receiving yards in three of four games this season
- Meyers has 95+ yards in two of three games this season
- His target share has been at 20% or higher in three of four games, and 38% or higher in two of four games
Velus Jones OVER 3.5 Receiving Yards (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jones has a catch in each of his past two games, for at least nine yards
Longshot Parlay to Consider
- We have seen several Patriots games over the past few years have extreme game plans
- The Bears have shown they will run the ball regardless of game script
- Mac Jones is returning from a high ankle sprain and the passing game may be limited on NE's front
Think both CHI & NE run the ball tonight?
Just put $50 on this +12000 ($6,050 payout) parlay on DraftKings
Anytime TDs: Damien Harris + David Montgomery
Fields UNDER 174.5 passYds
Jones UNDER 219.5 passYds
Harris 60+ rushYds
Rhamondre 50+ rushYds
Herbert 40+ rushYds— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 24, 2022
We hope you enjoyed reading through these Monday Night Football player prop bets. As always, gamble responsibly.
WATCH MORE: Former NFL Head Coaches Wade Phillips and Mike Martz discuss the Patriots' QB "controversy."
