Betting

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby’s Thanksgiving Player Props

Thanksgiving Player Props

Below, you’ll find 14 Thanksgiving player props that Josh Larky and Ben Wolby put their money on. For each prop, you’ll get the line, the sportsbook, and why we chose to take the line.

You’ll also notice that with each prop, we provide the implied percentage odds of it hitting. For example, a +175 prop implies a 36% chance of the event happening, so if we’re taking that line, we expect it to hit more than 36% of the time.

You want to catch the video show that featured all these Thanksgiving player props, where we also had against-the-spread betting insight from The 33rd Team’s Head of Betting, Chris Farley, below.

BUF at DET (+9.5), 54 Point Total

D’Andre Swift Anytime Touchdown [+175 (36%) on FanDuel] – Josh Larky

  • Swift has TDs in five of seven games this season.
  • He returned from an injury four weeks ago.
  • In three of his past four games Swift has TD’s, despite limited playing time.
  • Swift has still been featured near the end zone since his return.
    • Week 8: two red zone targets
    • Week 9: one red zone carry and one red zone target
    • Week 10: two red zone (one goal line) carries
    • Week 11: three red zone (two goal line) carries and one red zone target

Josh Allen UNDER 38.5 Longest Completion [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Ben Wolby

  • Since Allen’s elbow injury, his yards per attempt and air yards per attempt total are down 7%.
  • Allen’s yards per game total is down 12% since injury.
  • It’s a short week since the Bills played last Sunday.
  • The Lions give up the most air yards per game:
    • Stefon Diggs‘ air yards per reception is down 30% since the Allen injury
    • Gabe Davis‘ air yards are down 40% since the injury

NYG at DAL (-10), 45.5 Point Total

CeeDee Lamb UNDER 5.5 Receptions [+100 (50%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky

  • In five games with Dak Prescott this year, Lamb has 2, 4, 5, 11, and 5 receptions (under in four of five games).
  • While Lamb went over 5.5 receptions with Cooper Rush vs. NYG in Week 3, neither Michael Gallup nor Dalton Schultz played in that contest — Gallup and Schultz are healthy now for Week 12.

Darius Slayton OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Ben Wolby

  • Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, and Daniel Bellinger were all traded or injured.
  • Kenny Golladay is not a starting-caliber NFL WR anymore.
  • 42 snaps and ten targets last week were the most Slayton has seen all year.
  • Dallas has allowed 12 WRs to go over this number, with at least one WR in eight of ten games:
    • 11 of 12 WRs had more snaps out wide than in the slot
    • Slayton has seen 73% of his snaps come out wide
  • CB Trevon Diggs is dealing with an ankle injury.
  • Slayton has the most yards receiving per game vs. man coverage since Week 8, and Dallas runs the sixth most man coverage in the league.

Darius Slayton Anytime Touchdown [+310 (24%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky

  • Slayton has TDs in two of the past four games.
  • Wan’Dale Robinson tore his ACL in Week 11, so Slayton is all this passing offense has left.

Darius Slayton MORE Total Yards than CeeDee Lamb [+265 (27%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky

  • In Lamb’s past four games (since Dak Prescott returned from injury), he’s compiled: 66, 78, 150, and 45 total yards.
  • In Slayton’s past four games, he’s compiled: 58, 66, 95, and 86 yards.
  • Their recent game logs are fairly similar, with Lamb having a higher ceiling and Slayton being more consistent.
  • Implied odds suggest a 27% chance, but I’d put it closer to 35-40% for this game.

Saquon Barkley OVER 15.5 Longest Rush [-120 (55%) on DraftKings] – Ben Wolby

  • This has gone over in seven of ten games.
  • Micah Parsons is not 100% healthy.
  • Dallas allows the 13th-highest yards per carry in the NFL.
  • 14 of 288 carries (roughly one in 20) have gone over this number against Dallas, and Saquon averages 22 rush attempts per game.

Dalton Schultz OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards [-110 (52%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky

  • This has gone over in three of the past four games, with Schultz receiving at least five targets in each game.
  • Dallas TE Peyton Hendershot had 43 yards for the Cowboys in Week 3 against the Giants when Schultz was injured.

Dak Prescott OVER 250.5 Passing Yards [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Ben Wolby

Dak Prescott UNDER 36.5 Yards Longest Completion [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky

  • Tony Pollard‘s 68-yard TD catch in Week 11 was Prescott’s only completion of 37+ yards this season.
  • The Giants have only allowed two passes over 36.5 yards all season on 327 pass attempts faced.

NE at MIN (-2.5), 42.5 Point Total

T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown [+220 (31%) on FanDuel] – Josh Larky

  • Hockenson has 9, 10, and 9 targets in his three games as a Viking:
    • Week 9: three red zone targets.
    • Week 10: one red zone (one end zone) target.
    • Week 11: two red zone (one end zone) targets.
  • NE has allowed a TD to a TE in five of ten games in 2022.

Dalvin Cook OVER 8.5 Yards Longest Reception [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Ben Wolby

  • In eight of ten games, he has a reception longer than this:
    • 22 receptions on the season, so more than one-third of his catches are over this number
  • Cook is averaging 3.5 targets and 2.5 receptions per game
  • New England allows 8.8 yards per reception to RBs, second-most in the NFL, via our flagship tool, The Edge.

Kirk Cousins UNDER 38.5 Yards Longest Completion [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky

  • Cousins went under in five of ten games.
  • NE has only allowed 39+ yard completions in two of ten games (three total completions out of 323 pass attempts faced).

Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 Receptions [+110 (48%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky

  • Meyers has gone over 4.5 receptions in four of eight games.
  • He’s gone over two of the past three games with Mac Jones.
  • 12 WRs have five or more receptions vs. MIN this season in only ten games:
    • Meyers is the clear-cut WR1 for NE, so if a Patriots WR exceeds this number, it’s almost assuredly going to be him.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these 14 Thanksgiving player props. As always, bet responsibly.

WATCH MORE: Four Critical Stats for Week 12

 

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