You’ll also notice that with each prop, we provide the implied percentage odds of it hitting. For example, a +175 prop implies a 36% chance of the event happening, so if we’re taking that line, we expect it to hit more than 36% of the time.
You want to catch the video show that featured all these Thanksgiving player props, where we also had against-the-spread betting insight from The 33rd Team’s Head of Betting, Chris Farley, below.
Thanksgiving Betting Show from The 33rd Team https://t.co/HVcoqywVCJ
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 23, 2022
BUF at DET (+9.5), 54 Point Total
- Swift has TDs in five of seven games this season.
- He returned from an injury four weeks ago.
- In three of his past four games Swift has TD’s, despite limited playing time.
- Swift has still been featured near the end zone since his return.
- Week 8: two red zone targets
- Week 9: one red zone carry and one red zone target
- Week 10: two red zone (one goal line) carries
- Week 11: three red zone (two goal line) carries and one red zone target
- Since Allen’s elbow injury, his yards per attempt and air yards per attempt total are down 7%.
- Allen’s yards per game total is down 12% since injury.
- It’s a short week since the Bills played last Sunday.
- The Lions give up the most air yards per game:
NYG at DAL (-10), 45.5 Point Total
- In five games with Dak Prescott this year, Lamb has 2, 4, 5, 11, and 5 receptions (under in four of five games).
- While Lamb went over 5.5 receptions with Cooper Rush vs. NYG in Week 3, neither Michael Gallup nor Dalton Schultz played in that contest — Gallup and Schultz are healthy now for Week 12.
- Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, and Daniel Bellinger were all traded or injured.
- Kenny Golladay is not a starting-caliber NFL WR anymore.
- 42 snaps and ten targets last week were the most Slayton has seen all year.
- Dallas has allowed 12 WRs to go over this number, with at least one WR in eight of ten games:
- 11 of 12 WRs had more snaps out wide than in the slot
- Slayton has seen 73% of his snaps come out wide
- CB Trevon Diggs is dealing with an ankle injury.
- Slayton has the most yards receiving per game vs. man coverage since Week 8, and Dallas runs the sixth most man coverage in the league.
Darius Slayton Anytime Touchdown [+310 (24%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky
- Slayton has TDs in two of the past four games.
- Wan’Dale Robinson tore his ACL in Week 11, so Slayton is all this passing offense has left.
Darius Slayton MORE Total Yards than CeeDee Lamb [+265 (27%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky
- In Lamb’s past four games (since Dak Prescott returned from injury), he’s compiled: 66, 78, 150, and 45 total yards.
- In Slayton’s past four games, he’s compiled: 58, 66, 95, and 86 yards.
- Their recent game logs are fairly similar, with Lamb having a higher ceiling and Slayton being more consistent.
- Implied odds suggest a 27% chance, but I’d put it closer to 35-40% for this game.
- This has gone over in seven of ten games.
- Micah Parsons is not 100% healthy.
- Dallas allows the 13th-highest yards per carry in the NFL.
- 14 of 288 carries (roughly one in 20) have gone over this number against Dallas, and Saquon averages 22 rush attempts per game.
Dalton Schultz OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards [-110 (52%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky
- This has gone over in three of the past four games, with Schultz receiving at least five targets in each game.
- Dallas TE Peyton Hendershot had 43 yards for the Cowboys in Week 3 against the Giants when Schultz was injured.
Dak Prescott OVER 250.5 Passing Yards [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Ben Wolby
- This went over 250 in three straight games (three of four full games on the season).
- Only three QBs have gone over vs. the Giants, but they mainly faced below-average QBs:
- New York’s pass defense is 24th in the league via Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
- Prescott has 289, 355 and 389 yards passing in the last three Thanksgiving games.
Dak Prescott UNDER 36.5 Yards Longest Completion [-115 (53%) on DraftKings] – Josh Larky
- Tony Pollard‘s 68-yard TD catch in Week 11 was Prescott’s only completion of 37+ yards this season.
- The Giants have only allowed two passes over 36.5 yards all season on 327 pass attempts faced.
NE at MIN (-2.5), 42.5 Point Total
- Hockenson has 9, 10, and 9 targets in his three games as a Viking:
- Week 9: three red zone targets.
- Week 10: one red zone (one end zone) target.
- Week 11: two red zone (one end zone) targets.
- NE has allowed a TD to a TE in five of ten games in 2022.
- In eight of ten games, he has a reception longer than this:
- 22 receptions on the season, so more than one-third of his catches are over this number
- Cook is averaging 3.5 targets and 2.5 receptions per game
- New England allows 8.8 yards per reception to RBs, second-most in the NFL, via our flagship tool, The Edge.
- Cousins went under in five of ten games.
- NE has only allowed 39+ yard completions in two of ten games (three total completions out of 323 pass attempts faced).
- Meyers has gone over 4.5 receptions in four of eight games.
- He’s gone over two of the past three games with Mac Jones.
- 12 WRs have five or more receptions vs. MIN this season in only ten games:
- Meyers is the clear-cut WR1 for NE, so if a Patriots WR exceeds this number, it’s almost assuredly going to be him.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these 14 Thanksgiving player props. As always, bet responsibly.
WATCH MORE: Four Critical Stats for Week 12