Betting

4/20/23

4 min read

How DFS Players Can Use Their Knowledge For Player Prop Betting

When you think about it, daily fantasy sports (DFS) is just one big player prop market. You should consider treating these two areas as similar entities. DFS players can use their knowledge and research to make advantageous bets at sportsbooks, especially in player prop markets. Let’s talk about how.

 

Using DFS to Make Good Bets

DFS Players Have Advantages in Prop Markets

Sportsbooks have to set lines for hundreds of different players, so they can offer thousands of different prop options to the betting public every week of the NFL season. Sportsbooks spread themselves thin to cover the whole league.

DFS players base every decision they make around an individual or small cluster of players.

DFS players have the luxury of being hyper-focused on a much more manageable group of players. This gives DFS players an edge since they can be much more selective about what or who they focus their efforts on.

 

DFS Rostership Numbers in Player Prop Markets

If you’re familiar with DFS, you already know how important it is to accurately project rostership percentages.

In tournaments, it’s in your best interest to be cognizant of cumulative rostership. You can’t just play chalk in GPP’s (large field, DFS tournaments). In most cases, you need a couple of low-rostered options to have spike weeks for your lineup to climb the leaderboard in tournaments. These types of players are going to have low-rostership numbers because they are volatile, which also makes them volatile prop bets.

For cash games, you’re not worried about rostering the chalkier options on the slate. In fact, you probably want to build your cash lineups around 2-4 of those high-rostered options that most of the DFS community is going to play. Targeting that small cluster in player props markets is a good plan of attack. Sportsbooks aren’t factoring in which players are going to have 60 percent or greater rostership percentage in double-ups when they are setting lines in prop markets.

Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson

DFS Price Points

Every quarterback and skill position player gets a salary in DFS. These figures tell you how a DFS platform values each player on that particular slate.

Sometimes, you can find discrepancies in how a DFS platform values a player versus the lines a sportsbook releases on that same player on the same slate. This is another advantage DFS players have in prop markets.

For example, let’s say the top two wide receivers on the opening day slate, Justin Jefferson (above) and Ja’Marr Chase, are both priced at $9,200. Jefferson’s receiving yards line is set at 93.5, while Chase's is set at 82.5. This means there is a clear misprice on either the DFS side or the sportsbook. This doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it’s in your best interest to identify these situations early so you can extract as much value as you can.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Russell Gage

Props on Role Players, Backups

If you’ve ever done your diligence with DFS research, you already know how much more information you have on role players and backups than the majority of the population.

This is especially important when it comes to injury replacements. DFS players already know how much the role of Russell Gage (above) will increase when Chris Godwin is out. That’s an advantage you have on more casual players in DFS, and it’s an advantage you could have in player prop markets.

Final Thoughts

DFS players are already putting in the time and effort to understand each offensive player’s role and game environment on every slate. Consider using that knowledge and experience to find advantages in player prop markets. You’re already putting in the work, it’s time to capitalize on it.

 



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