Analysis
10/29/22
7 min read
Hammer the Overs on Huntley and Mostert in Week 8
It has been a weird NFL season, but over the last week, we have been able to get our props on track. Between last Sunday and Thursday night, we have gone 7-3, bringing our record to 45-39-2 for the season. I have made sure to add a confidence rating on each prop, and at the end of the article, I have my Pick 2 of the week.
Caleb Huntley OVER 9.5 Rush Attempts
The Atlanta Falcons are the most run-heavy offense in the NFL. Even when they are losing by multiple possessions, they refuse to stop establishing the run. Thankfully this week, they are favored against arguably the worst team in the NFL. Because other teams have had the lead so much against them, the Carolina Panthers have faced the sixth-most rushing attempts. Combine the run-heaviest team with a high probability of having a run-heavy game script, making this a great play. The only issue I have with this play is that the Falcons have been difficult to predict, so I have difficulty putting much confidence in any Falcon's play. I give it a 3/5 confidence and would play it to 10.0, but not higher.
Aaron Jones UNDER 47.5 Yards Rushing
As I started looking through props, this is one of the props that immediately jumped out at me for being mispriced. The main factor that makes this a great play is who the Packers are playing. This week, Aaron Jones will be facing off against a Bills defense that is excellent at stopping the run. Not only do the Bills allow the fewest yards per rush to running backs, but they've also faced the fewest rush attempts by running backs this season. The Bills' offense is so good at scoring that opposing teams have had to lean on the passing game to stay in the game.
The Packers are underdogs in this game, and in four losses this season, Aaron Jones has averaged only 8.75 rush attempts. Compare that to 14.3 rush attempts in wins. Combining the stout Bills' rush defense with Jones having a high likelihood of being scripted out of the game by the Bills' high-powered offense, I have strong confidence in this play. I would give it a 4/5 and would play it down to 43.5 rush yards.
Raheem Mostert OVER 14.5 Fantasy Points
Mostert gets the best fantasy matchup for a running back this week. According to TruMedia, the Detroit Lions give up the most fantasy points from rushing. Running backs, on average, score 22.65 fantasy points per game against Detroit, a full nine points more than the average.
Raheem Mostert has taken control of the Miami backfield recently. In the last four weeks, Mostert has had 76% of the running back rushes. He also has the most routes run by a running back over the previous four weeks. I am all-in on the lead running back against the Lions and would give this play a 5/5 confidence. I would play this line up to 17 fantasy points.
Geno Smith OVER 110.5 First Half Yards Passing
Geno Smith only ranks behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for the most passing yards in the first half of games so far this season. He is averaging 151.3 pass yards in the first half per game. Geno did lose D.K. Metcalf to injury this week, but even without Geno for most of the game, the Seahawks had no issues moving the ball against a very good Chargers defense. The Giants pass defense has not been anything special so far this season, allowing the 13th-most passing yards in the first half so far this season. 110.5 is a low bar for Geno Smith, and I am pretty confident in this play. I would give it 4/5 and would play it 119.5 pass yards.
Greg Dulcich OVER 3.0 Receptions.
Since his first start for the Broncos since Week 6, Dulcich has been getting a ton of run in the Broncos' offense. In the last two weeks, he has run the eighth-most routes for tight ends. Last week, with Brett Rypien starting at quarterback, Dulcich had six receptions on nine targets. Even though Russell Wilson will get the start this week in London, Dulcich looks to be becoming an essential part of the Broncos' offense.
The Jaguars' offense has been above average at defending tight ends, as they rank in the top 10 in the fewest number of receptions allowed to them. They have allowed 3.7 receptions per game to tight ends. I was close to giving this play a 5/5 confidence, but the Jacksonville defense, along with Wilson starting this week, makes me a little less confident in this play. It is still a 4/5 confidence play, but I would not play it if it goes to 3.5.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 15.0 Fantasy Points
The Broncos offense has been horrific this season, overshadowing how elite the Broncos defense has been. They have given up a league-low three passing touchdowns and haven't given up a passing touchdown in the last four weeks. For fantasy point lines, we have to do some math, and if you assume Lawrence gets his average of 12 rushing yards per game, that means he would need to get 13.8 fantasy points from passing.
Even if Lawrence can pass for a touchdown, he would still need more than 245 passing yards. The most passing yards the Broncos have given up so far this season in a single game was 251 to Matt Ryan. Lawrence would need a perfect game against the elite Broncos' defense to go over this prop, so I give it a 5/5 on confidence, and it is one of my most confident plays of the week. I would play this down to 13.5 fantasy points.
Andy Dalton OVER 14.0 Fantasy Points
In every single game this season, the Las Vegas Raiders have given up either two passing touchdowns or over 250 passing yards. In half of their games, they've given up both. They've been a great fantasy defense to target, and they even made Russell Wilson a top 5 quarterback in Week 4. This is a pretty simple play because of the Las Vegas defense, and that makes it one of my most confident plays of the week at 5/5, and I would play it up to 17.0 fantasy points.
Pick 2 of the Week
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 15.0 Fantasy Points AND Greg Dulcich OVER 3.0 Receptions
While Dulcich isn't one of my 5/5 confidence props this week, both of these plays are from the early London game, and I will be playing these two props together fairly heavily. This hopefully will be an early win that will let us bet more on the rest of the games on Sunday. Also, these two plays shouldn't affect each other if the game script gets too out of hand for either team. Play this Pick 2 confidently to set you up for another very profitable Sunday.
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