The season is officially over, but as a bettor it’s important to take a look back at which teams performed really well against the spread, and which did not do as well. Oddsmakers and the marketplace will make sure that things don’t look the same next season as they did this season. They’ll adjust, and we need to adjust accordingly.
Best Against the Spread
New York Giants
The best team against the spread in 2022 was the New York Giants going 14-5 or 74% against the spread. That is an astounding number, and you can expect that won’t continue next season. The Giants are going to have a much tougher schedule, and teams will treat them differently now knowing how competitive they can be.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions covered at a rate of 71%, which is impressive considering the Lions were the best team in the NFL last season against the spread. This year, they were second-best. Oddsmakers and the marketplace absolutely will adjust to that, knowing these Lions are going to fight hard in every game. You probably won’t get much value on the Lions next season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Even with a target on their backs after going to the Super Bowl, the Cincinnati Bengals covered at a rate of 68% in 2022. That’s impressive and just might continue, since apparently, the marketplace doesn’t take the Bengals seriously enough. They just keep on covering (and winning).
Worst Against the Spread
The worst teams against the spread last season were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts and, interestingly, the Seattle Seahawks, who started off covering six of their first eight games. However, they ended the season only covering one out of their final nine. The Seahawks really fell off the radar; they looked like a team to bet on, and then at the end of the season, the marketplace and other teams adjusted.
That happens a lot, and it’s important to know going into the next season which teams are going to shine against the spread, and which aren’t.
Next Season
I would look out for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, and even the Denver Broncos with new head coach Sean Payton to do well against the spread. I think those teams will be much better against the spread next season.
Keep in mind, even the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, who played in the Super Bowl weren’t infallible against the spread. The Eagles were only 10-10 against the spread this year, and Kansas City was an astounding 8-11-1 during the 2022 season.
The marketplace probably has it right with teams like the Chiefs and Eagles. It does not with teams like the Giants, Bengals and Lions.
