Betting
3/26/23
9 min read
Free Agency Winners, Losers: Has Any Team Boosted Its Super Bowl Odds?
NFL free agency is well underway, and we already have seen some big splashes made around the league.
The biggest stories so far have been whether the New York Jets finally will land Aaron Rodgers, and where another MVP-caliber quarterback, Lamar Jackson, might call home next season.
Let's examine the biggest winners (and losers) of free agency so far, and see how their Super Bowl odds have been affected in recent weeks.
Before we dive further into the noteworthy moves of free agency so far, let's introduce the best NFL sports betting promotions available right now.
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Biggest Winners in Free Agency So Far
Here are the biggest winners so far, since free agency began:
Chicago Bears
+6000 to win the Super Bowl at Bet365
Based on data from OddsChecker, since free agency opened, over 26.2 percent of bets were placed on the Chicago Bears winning the 2024 Super Bowl.
At the end of February, DraftKings Sportsbook had the Bears listed as an +8000 longshot to win the Super Bowl, with only four teams ranked below them.
Since then they have put their faith in Justin Fields by trading the No. 1 overall pick, and acquiring a new weapon for him in wide receiver D.J. Moore. The Bears dealt the No. 1 pick to the Carolina Panthers for the No. 9 pick in this year's draft, a second-rounder this year (No. 61 overall), a 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. They also received Moore as part of the package, which was a huge haul.
Giving Fields a legitimate WR1 will help open up the Bears' offense. Chicago also fortified its line with the addition of guard Nate Davis. They also have addressed a Roquan Smith-shaped void on defense by signing linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. Overall, the Bears have improved their roster.
There has not been a huge reaction by the sportsbooks, as Bet365 Sportsbook still has the Bears listed as a +6000 shot, but there is still room to improve given their draft capital this year.
Miami Dolphins
+3000 to win the Super Bowl at Caesars
The Miami Dolphins exercised their fifth-year option on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and they plan to take advantage of his cheap rate while they can.
They already made a huge splash by trading for Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams, and they made cost-effective additions like receiver Braxton Berrios and linebacker David Long. The Dolphins have done some great work this offseason.
Picking up the fifth-year option on Tagovailoa might seem risky given his concussion issues, but when healthy he showed a solid progression and made the Dolphins a legitimate playoff team, even a Super Bowl contender.
If Tagovailoa can stay on the field, the Dolphins look like a potential dark horse again in the AFC.
Like the Bears, the Dolphins have received more than 26 percent of bets since free agency began, with the Ramsey trade a key reason.
Bet up to $1,250 on the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl and get your stakes back as bonus bets if they fail to make it to the Big Game, thanks to the Caesars Sportsbook promo code.
Dallas Cowboys
+1800 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM
Is it a trap? Well, betting on the Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl has been unsuccessful for almost 30 years, but can they finally reward Jerry Jones and their fans this season with their first Lombardi Trophy since 1995?
Sure, they cut running back Ezekiel Elliott this offseason, but they addressed that with the signing of Ronald Jones for one year, and Tony Pollard should be healthy by the time the season starts and let off the leash now.
Trading for cornerback Stephen Gilmore boosts their defense significantly, and their trade for receiver Brandin Cooks gives Dak Prescott an electric weapon.
There is still work to do with this roster. Gilmore likely is a short-term rental, and there is probably still depth to be added on offense after receiver Noah Brown left, but there is time in the draft to address both spots.Â
As ever, Prescott's play is going to dictate the Cowboys' chances, but in terms of their free agency movements, there is reason to be positive so far.
The Cowboys were +2200 at the end of February, but now +1800 is the biggest price you can get on the Cowboys, at BetMGM Sportsbook.
The "We Don't Know Yet" New York Jets
+1500 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel
The Jets are as short as +1400 to win the Super Bowl, but you can still get +1500 with FanDuel Sportsbook if you think 1.) Aaron Rodgers is definitely traded there, and 2.) He makes enough of an impact to take them to the Super Bowl.
If Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers agree on trade terms with the Jets and the Jets acquire the four-time MVP quarterback, they become immediate Super Bowl contenders, and that is why they are +1500 at FanDuel.
Should the move fall through, however, the $44 million contract they gave receiver Allen Lazard and the hire of Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator could prove very awkward.
If Rodgers makes the move to Gotham City, the Jets will have picked up Lazard, Rodgers, and safety Chuck Clark, and would certainly be in "win now" mode.
This team has a top 5 defense, and if Rodgers joins on offense, they are probably a top-10 unit there as well, so they have what they need to contend.
Place a $1,000 No Sweat Bet on the New York Jets to win the Super Bowl, with the FanDuel promo code
Biggest Losers in Free Agency So Far
Here are the biggest losers so far of free agency.
Los Angeles Rams
+6000 to win the Super Bowl at BetRivers
Things were never going to be good for the Rams this offseason, but after trading away Jalen Ramsey, releasing linebacker Bobby Wagner, and facing an uphill battle with the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford, the outlook is bleak for the Rams.
Kicker Matt Gay and punter Riley Dixon have left Los Angeles, meaning the special teams units will see a significant switch up as well, so there is disruption everywhere you look.
Getting tight end Hunter Long and a third-round pick for Ramsey highlights the struggles coach Sean McVay and GM Les Snead face this summer.
While many sportsbooks still are protecting themselves somewhat, keeping the Rams at +3000, BetRivers perhaps smartly has pushed them out to +6000 to win the 2024 Super Bowl.
Minnesota Vikings
All the sportsbooks agree that despite having quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and receiver Justin Jefferson on the roster, this Minnesota Vikings team is a 40-1 shot at best to win the Super Bowl.
It was always going to be hard for the Vikings to make an impact in free agency because they have the least cap space in the NFL, but what they have done so far is mind-boggling.
Giving edge Marcus Davenport a one-year, $13 million contract was insane, given he just had his least-productive NFL season. They also gave former Baltimore Ravens tight end Josh Oliver a three-year, $21 million contract. Oliver has caught 26 balls for 230 yards and two touchdowns at age 25.
The only way the Oliver signing makes sense is if they were to make a miracle run at Lamar Jackson, but that seems unlikely.
Baltimore Ravens
+3000 to win the Super Bowl at Caesars
The Ravens have spent the offseason alienating their superstar quarterback, who at his best has been the MVP of the league. Even when Jackson struggles, he brings a certain floor that keeps them in most games.
When Jackson starts, the Ravens are 45-16, and when he doesn't they are 8-13. It is painfully obvious how much they need Jackson, so why they won't pay him what he's worth is concerning.
The Ravens have not signed anyone in free agency and have traded away Clark and released defensive lineman Calais Campbell. So all they have done so far is let talent walk out the door and upset the face of the franchise.
The Ravens are fumbling this period, and now that Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, and Jameis Winston are unavailable, their options for a Jackson replacement are thinning by the day, if they end up losing him.
If you do think the Ravens are still capable of winning the Super Bowl this season, take advantage of the +3,000 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
