Conference Championship Underdog High, Low Picks

Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline five Conference Championship Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster LOWER than 4.0 Receptions

Chosen by Wolby and Larky

He's been LOWER than this number in nine of 17 games (53%) overall.
He's been LOWER in seven of the last games games, as well as in four straight.
Over the last three games, JuJu Smith-Schuster has fewer than 10% targets per route run and a 10% target share. He’s had the same, or fewer, receptions than Kadarius Toney during this time.
After Patrick Mahomes came back into the second half last week, Smith-Schuster saw fewer targets than Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
- Smith-Schuster saw just one target once Mahomes returned.
While Smith-Schuster is the N0. 1 receiver in this offense from an optics standpoint - with the most routes run among WRs - Travis Kelce is the first read, and when on the field, Toney is dominating Smith-Schuster from a targets perspective.
The Bengals allowed the fifth-fewest receptions per game to WRs this year, via The Edge.

Brock Purdy LOWER than 219.5 Passing Yards

Chosen by Wolby

The Eagles have allowed three 220 or more yard passers this season:
- Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray
Despite facing these QBs:
- Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers, and Daniel Jones (twice)
Brock Purdy has only topped this number in three of his games:
- Against Washington and Seattle – two very average pass defenses via Football Outsiders' DVOA
- And the Raiders, who had a bottom-3 pass DVOA
The Eagles are the top-ranked team by pass DVOA.
- Dallas is ranked third, and Purdy went lower than 219.5 passing yards last week
The 49ers are bottom-10 in pass rate over expectation.

Isiah Pacheco HIGHER than 6.5 Receiving Yards

Chosen by Larky

While Isiah Pacheco isn't much of a pass-catching back, this line is simply far too low.
The past eight games, he’s reached six receiving yards in all but one.
He's averaging 1.5 targets, 1.4 receptions, and 15.4 receiving yards per game in his past eight games.
Mahomes' high ankle sprain likely means more dump-off passes when he's under pressure.

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Joe Burrow LOWER than 276.5 Passing Yards

Chosen by Wolby

Joe Burrow is LOWER in five of six career playoff games, and was LOWER in nine of 16 games this season.
QBs against the Chiefs are averaging only 220 passing yards, with 13 of 18 going LOWER than 276.5 passing yards.
Now, with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City may not have as fast-paced of an offense as we’re used to.
- It’s possible Cincinnati will not have to pass as much as expected

Deebo Samuel LOWER than 20.5 Rushing Yards

Chosen by Larky

Deebo Samuel has been LOWER in nine of 15 games (60%) this year.
He carried eight times for 52 yards in Week 1, and four times for 53 yards in Week 2.
It's been downhill since, with five carries for just six yards in Week 3.
- He hasn't had more than four carries or 37 rushing yards since.
Since returning from injury in Week 18:
- Week 18: one carry, four yards
- Week 19: three carries, 32 yards
- Week 20: four carries, 11 yards
Setting this line at 20.5 yards when he’s probably getting three rush attempts implies insane efficiency.
- Overall, he's averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season, not seven or eight.
Despite back-to-back games of 52 or more rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2, he's averaging just 17.8 rushing yards per game, which is lower than this line.