Analysis
11/14/22
18 min read
Between the Lines: NFL Betting Week 11 Edition
Every Monday during the NFL season, I’ll compare game spreads to my own power ratings and give my perspective on whether I think the betting lines are accurate. Paying attention to the NFL market is one of the single most important aspects of successful wagering. With all the variance and volatility of pro football, placing a bet on the most advantageous side of a number is often the only difference between a winning or losing ticket.Â
All lines are consensus numbers across the U.S. Sportsbooks as of Monday morning. Some may not be out yet. Early lines that show great disparity with my own are highlighted in red.Â
Titans at Packers (-2), Total: 41
My odds: Packers -2, Total: 44
Thursday Night Football presents two teams off of comeback wins in Week 10. The Green Bay Packers battled back from a 28-14 second-half deficit to beat the Dallas Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy vs. Aaron Rodgers Bowl. In Nashville, the Titans overcame a 10-point deficit to defeat the Denver Broncos. Mike Vrabel’s team keeps churning out Ws in tough spots, while Green Bay’s big victory might be the catalyst they need to revitalize their season. Rookie wide-receiver Christian Watson had a three-touchdown performance and showed some chemistry with Rodgers. That’s good news for an offense that’s been lifeless for long stretches this season. Aaron Jones had another productive game, running for 138 yards on 24 carries.
I think this total is a little too low. Green Bay’s offense has momentum after its most complete game of the season. On top of that, I like how the Titans’ downfield rushing attack matches up against the Green Bay defense. We’ve seen teams like the Jets, Giants, Commanders, and Patriots all succeed running the ball against the Packers this season. Teams use different nuances in their running schemes, but few are more disciplined or well-designed than what Tennessee offers. I can picture Derrick Henry breaking out some long runs at Lambeau Field.Â
This should be a battle, and the line is right. These are relatively even teams, with a slight home-field advantage built-in for the Pack. I have no lean right now.
Panthers at Ravens (-12.5), Total: 44
My odds: Ravens -10, Total: 46
I’m uncomfortable setting any line over 10, but I get why it sits at 12.5. The Baltimore Ravens enjoyed their bye week and have won their last three games. The Carolina Panthers aren’t in a terrible spot, either. They clobbered their NFC South foe in last week’s TNF contest behind another solid rushing performance from D’onta Foreman (31 carries, 130 yards and a touchdown) and some stingy defense. The extra three days of rest are always beneficial at this season's juncture.
The Panthers defense isn’t bad, but I’m not sure they can contain Lamar Jackson. Carolina’s defense limited Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray earlier this season, and they forced Marcus Mariota into errant throws and poor decisions last Thursday night. Of course, we all know Lamar Jackson is a different beast. Jackson averages 9.5 rushes per game for over seven yards per carry. He doesn’t necessarily look to run first anymore, but Jackson looks as poised and comfortable as ever in his decision-making. In Week 8, he missed some key passes down the stretch against the Saints, but the Ravens are at home in a good spot. And perhaps most importantly, their defense looked significantly better with new signee Roquan Smith at linebacker.Â
This is probably a blowout spot for the Ravens, but the Panthers can be feisty. As long as the weather cooperates, I could see Baltimore putting up some points in this contest. We’ll continue to monitor Sunday’s conditions as we analyze the matchup throughout the week.
Browns at Bills (-9.5), Total: 47
My Odds: Bills (-10), Total: 48
As you can see, we’re very close to the number in this contest. Many respectable sharps loved the Browns (+3.5) against the Dolphins yesterday. That didn’t work out well. The Browns were walloped by the Fins’ explosive offense, allowing nearly 500 total yards and 39 points in Miami. Cleveland’s offensive approach fizzled out early as they had to lean on Jacoby Brissett in a catchup game. That’s not a recipe for success, and I don’t feel good about their chances against a similarly explosive offense in Week 11.
The Bills are at home with revenge on their mind after a stunning loss to the Vikings Sunday. We don’t have to review the lunacy of that game – I’m sure you saw it or at least heard about it by now – but the Browns aren’t built to stay afloat in high-scoring games.Â
I would lean to the Bills’ side in this spot. It’s true that the Browns need to start stacking up wins to stay competitive in the AFC North. That would give Deshaun Watson a nice setup when he returns in Week 13. If the Bills won big or survived in Week 10, maybe I’d look at Cleveland’s side in Week 11. Unfortunately for Cleveland, there should be no loss of focus or motivation for Buffalo. Any line under double-digits is an advantage to Buffalo, in my opinion.
Eagles at Colts (+8.5), Total: 44
My Odds: Colts (+7.5), Total: 42.5
Do I believe in Jeff Saturday as a head coach so much that they can keep this game close against Philadelphia? Not necessarily– but the Colts looked like a different team on Sunday. Their offensive line played way better, allowing only one sack against a solid defensive front in Vegas, and Jonathan Taylor finally had a big game. Responsible for only 4 penalties and out-gaining the Raiders by over 100 yards on the road, there’s reason to think that the Matt Ryan/Jeff Saturday-led Colts could provide a better week-to-week product.
This is also a sleepy spot for the Eagles. Philadelphia will be coming off a big Monday Night Football game at home against Washington. After their Week 11 matchup against Indianapolis, they’ll head back home to face the Packers in what might feel like a heavyweight battle after Green Bay’s big win against Dallas. You can also run the ball against Philly. At home, there’s a path for the Colts to keep this game close– play ball control, limit mistakes, and run the offense through their running game. I’ll be making an early bet on Indianapolis.
Commanders at Texans (+2.5), Total: 40.5
My Odds: Texans (+3.5), Total: 44
I won’t have much to say about this game since we haven’t seen the Commanders play on Monday Night Football, and there’s not much to get excited about when it comes to the Houston Texans. I have the Commanders favored by more than a field goal because, like the New York Giants, Washington should be able to run the ball on Houston and limit their offense.Â
As a franchise, the Texans are obviously a team in development and transition right now. Sometimes that creates a team that battles hard and shows great chemistry since players are fighting for their long-term careers. We saw that from Houston early in the season. Now, it feels like the operation is a mess. Their offense is misguided– they only ran Dameon Pierce 17 times Sunday– and they’re 5-19 on third down the last two weeks. They also turned it over twice in both contests. I’m not seeing enough from Lovie Smith and his defense right now. The Commanders have more talent and should be motivated plenty. I lean Washington.
Jets at Patriots (-3), Total: 39
My Odds: Patriots (-3), Total: 37
The New England Patriots and New York Jets are vying for their respective positions in the AFC East. In Week 11, the rivalry heads to Foxboro. The Patriots won the first meeting, capitalizing on three Zach Wilson turnovers and a big second half from their defense. They outscored New York 16-7 in the final two quarters, forcing Wilson into uncomfortable throws as the Jets’ tried to adapt to life without Breece Hall. Bill Belichick defenses thrive against quarterbacks like Wilson, who are too mistake-prone and flawed in their decision-making. I’m not sure if the second matchup will go any differently.
Then again, the Jets are coming off their biggest win of the season. New York beat the Bills 20-17 at home in Week 9, and it wasn’t flukey. New York’s defense was stout in the game's final minutes, forcing Buffalo to punt with under five minutes remaining. Then they sacked Josh Allen and put the Bills’ offense in a really tough spot to tie the game on Buffalo’s final drive. Josh Allen couldn’t muster any magic, and New York won. They were 10.5-point underdogs.
The best play is probably the under. I set the total very close to where sportsbooks have the number, but that doesn’t mean these two teams can both score 20 points. Both teams are still very vulnerable at quarterback, and both teams will try to play ball-control on the ground and win with their defenses. The weather should also be cold, windy, and biting. I’m not sure if I’ll pick a side in this contest, but pulling the trigger on the under now may not be a bad idea. Â
Lions at Giants (-3.5), Total: 46
My Odds: Giants (-3), Total: 47
All the Giants keep doing is playing disciplined, sound football, resulting in wins. New York sits in 2nd place in the NFC East at 7-2 as they continue their improbable turnaround. Brian Daboll continues to stand out as a top coach of the year contender (+800).Â
The Lions, yes, the Lions, have now won two straight games. They survived another electric performance by Justin Fields, who ran the ball for 147 yards and two touchdowns and played some gutsy defense in the second half. A pick-six by Jeff Okudah in the fourth quarter and multiple sacks on the Bears’ final drive were the difference.Â
This game is hard to handicap, and part of that is because I’m always hard on my Giants. Since New York has the home-field advantage and, according to my power ratings, a significant coaching edge, a 3-point favorite makes sense. However, I’m not sure if I can bet on the Giants to cover anything more than 3. The Giants lead the NFL with a 7-2 record against the spread (ATS), and all of their last five wins were 4+ margins of victory. From a bettor’s perspective, this is probably a stay-away for me.Â
Rams at Saints (-3), Total: 39
My Odds: Saints (-2), Total: 41
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Off a double-digit home loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Los Angeles Rams head to New Orleans to take on the equally fledgling Saints. New Orleans was kept to only186 total yards against the Steelers, while the Rams only mustered 256 yards with John Wolford at QB. Cooper Kupp also went down with what looks like a high-ankle sprain. In short, both of these offenses are really struggling.
And we might see some quit in the Rams. At 3-6 and in last place in the NFC West, Los Angeles has a tough schedule remaining: at Saints, at Chiefs, Seahawks, Raiders, at Packers, Broncos, at Chargers, at Seahawks. Needless to say, the outlook doesn’t look great.Â
The Saints were without starters on the left side of their offensive line Sunday, which probably didn’t help their situation. In any case, the Saints are last in the NFC South but at 3-7, still very much in contention. I’m not sure how much I trust head coach Dennis Allen. Fans are calling for his firing, and he’s refused to start a healthy Jameis Winston in front of Andy Dalton. Plus, he was out-coached by Matt Canada in Pittsburgh. Allen was hired because of his exceptional coaching ability on defense, so that’s not a great sign.Â
The line makes sense, and this is probably another stay-away.
Bears at Falcons (-2.5), Total: 50
My Odds: Falcons (-1), Total: 53
I have this red-inked because of the total, but the Bears could also be a live dog in this contest. Justin Fields had another unbelievable game again in Week 10. He ran for 147 yards on 13 carries and was responsible for all four of the Bears’ touchdowns. The Bears defense wasn’t so successful, failing to stifle the Lions in the fourth quarter when they needed it most.
The Falcons are coming off their worst game of the season. It was only the third time all year that their offense couldn’t muster more than 17 points, and their defense allowed the Panthers to gain 232 yards on the ground. Marcus Mariota looked confused throughout the game, unable to bring his team back from an early deficit.Â
The Falcons are competing for the NFC South title, and this is a game they can win. The Bears aren’t competing for much of anything, but I don’t see how the Falcons’ defense can stop this version of Fields. Atlanta has one of the NFL's lowest sack rates (3.32%), and the best player in their secondary (A.J. Terrell) isn’t practicing. Adding up Atlanta’s motivation, the fact that the game is in a dome, and seeing how dynamic Justin Fields is right now– I think we’re going to see a ton of points in this game. I’d take the over-bet right now– the line is already moving up.
Raiders at Broncos (-2.5), Total: 41.5
My Odds: Broncos (-3), Total: 43
Not much line disparity here. The Broncos should be favored in Denver– it’s one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL– and the Raiders are in full panic mode after that terrible loss to the Colts. Derek Carr was emotional after their defeat, calling out his players and coaches after another disappointing effort. It was another bad look for one of the NFL’s most historic franchises, and we think we’ll see changes coming real soon.
The Broncos came up short in Tennessee after dropping a giant goose egg in the second half. In typical Titans fashion, the Broncos were shut down in the third and fourth quarters, totaling only 56 yards leading up to their final drive. Russell Wilson couldn’t overcome Jerry Jeudy’s injury and a tireless Titans’ defensive front. Tennessee earned six sacks in Week 10.
Neither of these teams is easy to trust, but I’ll consider a play on Denver. This is a really tough spot for the Raiders on the road in a division that’s as talented on paper as any in football. They also have one of the most challenging remaining schedules in the NFL to end the season, with games against the Chargers, Patriots, 49ers and Chiefs awaiting. We might be seeing the demise of the Las Vegas Raiders as we know them, and that opens the door for a Broncos’ team that’s incredibly tough at home. Strong lean to Denver at this point in the week.
Cowboys at Vikings (+1), Total: 47.5
My Odds: Vikings (-2), Total: 47.5
Well, it’s pretty cool when you hit a number exactly right. But in this case, I show a tremendous disparity in who I think should be favored. The Vikings have experienced incredible luck in their eight wins this season. While that’s true and something we must consider, they’re also putting themselves in a great position to win games. Dynamic throws by Kirk Cousins, spectacular catches by Justin Jefferson, tough running from Dalvin Cook, and a defense that often bends but rarely breaks are all reasons for their success. Kevin O’Connell must have some gifts as an influential leader, too. Minnesota checks out as must-see TV every week.Â
The Cowboys let a 14-point lead waste away at Lambeau Field. It was the first time all year that their defense looked truly vulnerable as Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones composed two dynamic touchdown drives down the stretch. The matchup was relatively even; the Packers just did more in the final 20 minutes of game time.Â
I wanted to find a reason to play on the Cowboys in this spot, but the line has me going the other way. The Vikings simply cannot be home underdogs with the way they’re playing. They’re way overdue for regression, that’s for sure, but I’d bet on their number for now.
Bengals at Steelers (+5), Total: 41.5
My Odds: Steelers (+4.5), Total: 43
The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a bye, and Pittsburgh got a big win at home behind a defense that just felt more like Steelers’ football. With TJ Watt back on the field, the Steelers only permitted 10 points and 186 total yards to the Saints. They also forced two turnovers and controlled the game, dominating time of possession (38:56 to 21:04).Â
Since Watt returned and Pittsburgh played so well on Sunday, this becomes a challenging game to predict. Cincinnati should still be without Ja’Marr Chase, but they’re rested and healthy otherwise. In two games last year, the Bengals embarrassed the Steelers with 14 and 31-point victories. Pittsburgh was competitive in the first half at home, but eventually, Cincinnati pulled away thanks to some timely grabs from Chase. Divisional games usually have me leaning to the home underdog. But the Bengals are positioned to explode after annihilating Carolina before their bye-week. Wherever this line moves, assuming it does, I’ll probably bet on the side with more value.
Chiefs at Chargers (+7), Total: 49.5
My Odds: Chargers (+6), Total: 47
The Los Angeles Chargers got blown out two times this season: once against the Jaguars (38-10, still doesn’t make sense), and once against the Seahawks (37-23). All three of their divisional matchups were one-score endings, so I’m inclined to bet on the Chargers at home after a loss in Week 11. Here’s the problem: Will Justin Herbert ever get his main targets back?
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams continue to sit out, and it’s been Herbert’s Achilles heel this season. Of course, Brandon Staley’s criminally bad playcalling hasn’t helped. The Chargers fell 22-16 to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, unable to accumulate enough points against one of the better defensive units in the league. With no run game to speak of and four of the Chargers’ top receivers not playing, it was hardly surprising.Â
Kansas City, who coasted to a 27-17 victory over the Jaguars, may struggle offensively against the Chargers. In their first battle, the Chiefs put up one of their least productive displays of the season, gaining only 319 yards in Week 2. But if Justin Herbert and the Chargers can’t figure out how to produce more offense, this could also get ugly. We’ll wait and see what the injury report says later this week. If the Chargers are (again) in a vulnerable position on that side of the ball, that might be an auto-bet on Kansas City.Â
49ers at Cardinals (+8), Total: 43.5
My Odds: Cardinals (+8.5), Total: 48
The Cardinals survived in Week 10 with Colt McCoy at quarterback in a game that we don’t really have to summarize. They’re an entirely different team without Kyler Murray, and they were facing the 2022 Rams– many teams will beat this version of Los Angeles.Â
The 49ers’ defense was the biggest reason why they won Sunday night. A talent-poor version of the Chargers only put up 238 yards on 23 minutes of possession. San Francisco ran well (157 yards), sacked Herbert thrice, and clamped down on big drives.
However, I show a significant disparity between my numbers and the total. The Arizona Cardinals’ defense does not succeed against offenses like San Francisco. Similarly-built programs like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Seahawks own creative, highly nuanced attacks that cause defenders to miss their assignments. Misdirection and trickery are what Kyle Shanahan does best, and I think it will work well against the Cardinals’ front seven. Arizona has a tough interior, but they’re slow. San Francisco’s speed should create scoring opportunities early and often.
Additionally, Kyler Murray should return. Commentary on the Arizona offense finding more rhythm without Murray is surfacing, but the Cardinals will need his dynamic playmaking ability against a potent team like the 49ers. The 49ers’ defense is also among the most talented in the NFL, and they play with a ton of breaking speed to the ball. From our perspective, this game could be full of big plays from both the offenses and defenses, and it’s likely we’ll see some turnovers, too. I like the over, and I’m betting on it now.
WATCH MORE: Week 10 Betting Recap
