Analysis
11/21/22
22 min read
Between the Lines: Betting NFL Week 12
Every Monday during the NFL season, I’ll compare game spreads to my own power ratings and give my perspective on whether I think the betting lines are accurate. Paying attention to the NFL market is one of the single most important aspects of successful wagering. With all the variance and volatility of pro football, placing a bet on the most advantageous side of a number is often the only difference between a winning or losing ticket.
All lines are consensus numbers across the U.S. Sportsbooks as of Monday morning. Some may not be out yet. Early lines that show great disparity with my own are highlighted in red.
Giants at Cowboys (-9), Total: 44.5
My odds: Cowboys -7.5, Total: 46
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a tremendous performance on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings came into this weekend fat and sassy. And why wouldn’t they be? Last week they somehow pulled out their seventh straight in what most people now consider the game of the year. Their win streak is full of gritty performances and timely luck, but it ended in Week 11. Dallas’ offense took control of the game from the start, using power-runs to soften the Vikings' front seven to set up long, efficient drives led by Dak Prescott. Their defense only allowed three points, too. Dallas’ 40-3 victory was the most lopsided result of the NFL season, and it was a statement by the Cowboys.
The New York Giants didn’t fare so well. Danny “Dimes” finally threw some interceptions, and their offense simply never got started. In a shocker to some (not Giants fans like me), it was the Detroit Lions who looked like the elite, well-disciplined squad on Sunday. They won at MetLife Stadium (31-18), avoiding mistakes of their own and taking advantage of every Giants turnover.
I still show value on the Giants on Thursday, though. This is a divisional revenge game, and if the Giants want a real shot at playoff success, this would be the spot to prove they can hang with the elite. I also think the Giants’ offense can find some success against Dallas– they ran for 167 yards against them in Week 3– and evidently, the Cowboys’ offense is at full strength. This isn’t necessarily a game, I’ll bet, but I lean Giants +8 and over 43.
Bills at Lions (+9), Total: 53
My odds: Lions +8, Total: 51
It took the Buffalo Bills some time to get-going Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. Once they did, it was night-night Brownies! The Bills dominated Cleveland at Ford Field Sunday, although some of the statistics won’t show that. The Browns accumulated 150 yards on their final two drives, but a 28-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter was never a margin they could recover from. Buffalo ended up winning 31-23. It was a clean game from Josh Allen and a big showing from their rushing attack. Without Allen, their running backs gained 164 yards on the ground and re-established control of the game when needed. The Bills’ defense also showed flashes of brilliance again.
The Lions went to MetLife Stadium and humbled the previously 7-2 Giants. Efficient drives, no sacks, and no turnovers ended in a double-digit win for Detroit. They’re on a three-game winning streak as they prepare to host Buffalo on Thanksgiving.
I give the Lions a little more credit than the sportsbooks, but I can’t disagree about where this number sits. This should be a high-scoring, entertaining game between two young teams. One is simply more mature and more talented than the other. The Bills will probably run away with this late behind some tremendous defensive plays and more Josh Allen magic. I’m not overly eager to bet on this contest, either.
Patriots at Vikings (-3), Total: 42
My Odds: Vikings -3, Total: 43
The mighty Minnesota Vikings finally fell to the Cowboys, ending their seven-game win streak. Color me not surprised. We’ve reviewed much of what happened in our write-up on the Cowboys’ game above. Minnesota was dominated on both sides of the ball. It wasn’t a great look for a team that entered tied with the #1 seed in the NFC. After Sunday’s performance, it’s self-evident that Minnesota still has plenty to figure out.
The New England Patriots played in the premiere defensive battle of this season on Sunday, defeating the New York Jets 10-3. A punt-return touchdown in the game’s final seconds sealed their victory – how Belichick-esque. Astoundingly, the Jets only mustered 103 total yards; 59 on the ground and 43 in their passing game. The Patriots’ defense flexed its most dominant game of the season, and while their offense only scored 3 points, they gained 297 total yards. Nick Folk also missed two field goals.
I have no issue with the Vikings being favored by 3. They should be. They get to stay home on a short week, and their offense will be dying to have a better performance. I’m not sure how effective they’ll be against Belichick's defense, but the total is also right. With how low-scoring most Patriots' games are, it can’t be higher than 42 or 43. Though eventually, the Vikings should put up some points. Even though I show slight value on the over, I would lean to the under and the Patriots’ side. They look like a clear top 5 defense, and we saw how the Cowboys’ defense stymied Kirk and the Vikings in Week 11. Now they have something to prove again.
Buccaneers at Browns (+3), Total: 43.5
My Odds: Browns (+4), Total: 45
The Cleveland Browns need Deshaun Watson. When their run game isn’t working, the Browns simply do not have a capable offense. Without a competent offense, teams can’t win, and that’s especially true when their defense is as egregiously bad as the Browns. Cleveland’s defense is in the bottom quadrant of the league in so many categories it’s hard to count, but the eye test tells it all. It’s just not the same unit this season, and now they’re facing a Tampa Bay Bucs team that found a mojo before the Week 11 bye.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter week 11 fresh off a successful trip to Germany in Week 10. They won and covered against the Seahawks, accruing over 400 yards of total offense. More importantly, their running backs totaled 162 yards on the ground. It was the first time since Week 1 that we saw a sustained running attack from the Bucs. Rachaad White, their rookie running back out of Arizona State, was explosive in a more featured role. Tampa might’ve found a secret weapon in White, and Cleveland’s 28th-ranked rush defense (4.8 opponent yards per carry) is probably a decent matchup for a repeat performance.
I give the Bucs more value in this spot. Even though they’re on the road and we’ve seen them slip in a few spots this season (Week 6 at Pittsburgh and Week 7 at Carolina), they’re coming off a bye, and the playoffs are now a clear goal they can use as extra motivation. Right now, I’m considering an early wager on the Bucs before the line creeps up.
Bengals at Titans (+1.5), Total: 42.5
My Odds: EVEN, Total: 46.5
I just can’t bet against the Tennessee Titans. Their win on Thursday Night Football was one of the most impressive performances I’ve seen from a team this season. Showing absolutely no intimidation after the Packers’ “big win” in Week 10, Tennessee marched into Lambeau Field and were the aggressors from the start. Derrick Henry punished defenders on 28 carries, Ryan Tannehill torched the Green Bay secondary (22/27, 333 yards and 1 touchdown), and the Titans’ defense imposed their will on the Packers’ offense early. The result was another dominant win by the Titans in a spot where many thought they’d trip. Right now, no current coach demonstrates more week-to-week excellence than Mike Vrabel. His team outsmarts, outplays, and out-grits their opponents like they were born to do it. I’m a fan.
I’m also a big fan of Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow has that same gleam in his eye that we saw last season. It’s like he knows something no one else does. And he just might. In one of the more challenging environments in pro football, Burrow avenged his Week 1 loss to the Steelers by dropping 355 yards and 4 touchdowns in a win. They turned the ball over two times and never established the run, but it didn’t matter. Burrow’s elite arm was on full display on Sunday, guiding the Bengals down one scoring drive after another in the second half. They doubled the Steelers' points in the final two quarters and pulled ahead late.
This game is a true coin flip. Ultimately both offenses can succeed, so I show value in betting the over. Derrick Henry hasn’t lost a step, and now Ryan Tannehill is rounding into his best form (again). Joe Burrow looks like a top 3 quarterback, and their offense is clicking. The Titans defense is really good, but I’m not sure it’s better than the Steelers’ defense in Pittsburgh. I think Cincinnati will succeed more than expected, and the Titans will keep up. This one should be fun to watch, and it could surely be a late AFC playoff preview.
Texans at Dolphins (-12.5), Total: 46
My Odds: Dolphins -10, Total: 47
I’ve said in previous editions of Between the Lines that I’m just not the kind of handicapper that makes any NFL line over 10. I recognize its validity and anticipate when it should happen, but I rarely let my numbers show that much disparity. For me, it’s a reminder that these are all still professional football teams. This means these are the most elite football players worldwide, all assembled in one elite company. If any one of those players or teams decides to have an all-in, all-out effort and the ball bounces the right way, they can defeat any opponent.
That being said, I get why the Miami Dolphins are 12.5-point favorites.
From a bettor’s perspective, the Houston Texans show little reason to believe they can cover any situation. And after another pitiful loss where Houston only piled up 148 total yards against Washington, why would I want to back this team?
The Miami Dolphins will enter Week 12 fresh and healthy after a bye week. Before the bye week, they averaged 35 ppg over their last three games. They’re a legitimate juggernaut right now, and they’re about to go up against a squad averaging only 13.25 ppg over their last four games. The Texans show zero signs that they can transform anything on offense. Davis Mills is sinking into a considerably below-average quarterback, and I don’t think their defense will have the endurance to keep down Tua and his weapons for more than half a quarter. The only side we should look at is the Miami Dolphins.
Bears at Jets (-5.5), Total: 41.5
My Odds: Jets -2.5*, Total: 47
As good as the Jets defense has been, I think we’re underestimating the value of Justin Fields in this line. The question is: will Justin Fields play on Sunday? If he does, the Jets’ offense is the real concern in this matchup. Can they keep up with the Bears’ new attack behind one of the league’s most exciting QBs? We’re not sure. In the second half of their Week 11 game against New England, the Jets’ offense managed to gain only FIVE TOTAL YARDS in 26 plays. How is that possible? Patriots’ defense or no Patriots’ defense, no professional offense should stink that much. Zach Wilson isn’t impressive, that’s for sure.
The Chicago Bears, on the other hand, nearly won again on the road against Atlanta. It was a correction opportunity for the Atlanta Falcons, who are still contending for first place in the NFC South, so it wasn’t the easiest spot for Chicago. Fields performed his usual shtick, running for a touchdown and throwing for another in a back-and-forth contest. The Bears’ defense and a late interception by Fields sealed the loss, but most of us were again left in awe of a player burgeoning into a superstar.
The Justin Fields factor is real. If he plays, which is why my line sits at -2.5, I would strongly consider a play on the Bears. If he can’t play on Sunday, the Bears have little chance to keep this close against a strong Jets defense. For now, we’ll wait.
Falcons at Commanders (-3.5), Total: 43
My Odds: Commanders -4, Total: 44
Not much of a disparity in my numbers in this contest. We may see some more points than the sportsbooks are anticipating, but this should be a close contest, and the Washington Commanders are the better team at home. The biggest disparity in talent is on defense.
The Commanders won again, taking control of their battle against the Houston Texans early with a pick-six interception touchdown. Taylor Heinicke was fine– he played mistake-free football, never got sacked, and never turned the ball over– and the Commanders' run game (153 yards) was impressive again. Their defense was the best unit on the field. They held Houston to only 148 total yards, sacked Davis Mills five times and forced two turnovers. Washington has won five of their last six games and should be considered a dangerous team moving forward.
The Atlanta Falcons got the job done, too. After a terrible loss on Thursday Night Football in Week 10, the Falcons kept their hopes alive in the NFC South with a win against Chicago. It wasn’t pretty, but Marcus Mariota played mistake-free football, and their diverse running attack held up their offense.
I’m not sure the Falcons will be all-that-effective against Washington, though. In sports betting, there’s a big difference between a 3-point line and a 3.5-point line, and in this case, I could see this line rising in favor of the home team. Over their last six games, the Commanders’ defense has only allowed 276.6 yards and 15.8 points per game. We’ve seen the Falcons flail against good defenses (like Carolina), and we could see a similar result in this one. I’ll likely bet on Washington– this line is already moving up at some books.
Broncos at Panthers (+2.5), Total: 35
My Odds: Panthers +3, Total: 36
Well, that’s a rather low total, don’t you think? We’ll have to do some research and check out how long it’s been since we’ve seen a total that low in the NFL’s regular season. My guess – it’s been a very, very long time. Two above-average defenses will battle in Week 12 when the Denver Broncos take on the Carolina Panthers. Both are off rough defeats in Week 11.
The Broncos finally looked somewhat capable at home on offense (94 yards on the ground, 226 yards through the air), but it wasn't enough. Their defense ultimately let down late, allowing the Raiders to assemble a 71-yard drive in the final minutes of game-time. Even worse, they let Davante Adams roam free in their secondary in overtime, resulting in a 35-yard touchdown that sealed the Raiders’ win.
In one of the weirdest games of the early slate, the Baltimore Ravens beat the Panthers 13-3 at M&T Bank Stadium. The Panthers, led by Baker Mayfield, went 3-12 on third down and only gained 205 total yards. Never establishing their run game, Baker was sacked four times and threw two interceptions. It was another indictment on Baker’s pedigree, and the Panthers offense may look to make another change after putting up their lowest point total of the year.
The lines are right. If PJ Walker plays, I’ll consider a play on the Panthers. At least they’re at home, and when Walker was the thrower, the Panthers had their best offensive showings. I may also look at this under, even though it’s incredibly low. Do you trust either of these offenses? Same.
Ravens at Jaguars (+4), Total: 43.5
My Odds: Jaguars +4.5, Total: 47
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a much-needed bye heading into Week 12. They’ve lost six of their last seven games.
The Ravens won in unimpressive fashion Sunday, besting the Panthers in a strange, low-scoring battle. Lamar Jackson did enough, and the Ravens were successful on the ground (30 carries for 115 yards), but there’s not much else to say about their offensive performance. It was a sleepy spot after their bye-week, so that’s a throw-away situation for me. I tend to think they’ll look much better in Week 12.
Since we’re expecting regression from their offense and since Jacksonville gets two weeks to plan for this contest, I like a look at the over here. The Ravens’ defense was impressive Sunday, allowing only 3 yards to a fledgling Panthers team, but lately, the Jaguars are showing they have a formidable rushing attack behind Travis Etienne. Their 5.1 yards per carry is a top-five designation. I’ll probably make a play on the over; no play on the side where it sits now.
Chargers at Cardinals (+3.5), Total: 48
My Odds: Cardinals +4, Total: 48
It’s hard not to feel bad for the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert played a relatively flawless game, LAC established their run game and found 115 yards on the day, and their defense made a few nice plays and limited the Kansas City Chiefs early on Sunday Night Football. Ultimately it didn’t matter– too much time was on the clock for Patrick Mahomes, and the result was another impressive Chiefs victory on the road.
The Arizona Cardinals have yet to play on Monday Night Football, but they’re 10-point underdogs in Mexico City. Things aren’t looking for a 3-6 Arizona squad on the brink of losing any shot at making the playoffs. The Seattle Seahawks beat them twice, and the 49ers should be a solid two games ahead after tonight. This will definitely be a desperate spot for the Cardinals, and they should have Kyler back by this point.
Because of those reasons, I can’t bet on the Chargers. If the line moves down in favor of Arizona, then we may take a position. Betting against a home team in a desperate spot is usually a bad move when the line is more than a field goal. We’ll pass for now.
Raiders at Seahawks (-3.5), Total: 48
My Odds: Seahawks -4, Total: 47
The Las Vegas Raiders finally got an important victory yesterday at Denver. Even more impressively, they stacked up over 400 yards against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Derek Carr had a clean game– 23/37 for 307 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions– and Josh Jacobs ran for 109 yards on the ground. Their defense sacked Russell Wilson three times and held a bad offense to under 20 points. I give them credit – they did what they were supposed to do.
The Seahawks didn’t play in Week 11, but they’ll come into this well-rested and off their first big loss of the season. In Week 10, the Seahawks traveled to Germany and lost to the Bucs. That game was more about the Bucs’ resurgence and playoff hopes. I still think the Seahawks are a very formidable team and playoff contender.
I give Seattle more credit than the sportsbooks and lean in their direction. They’re at home with a better defense, and Geno Smith should be ready to come out firing after a week away from the game. With the “12th man” in attendance against a Raiders team that’s still very flawed, I wonder if the Seahawks could win by some margin here. We’ve seen them blow out good teams multiple times this season, and this is a great spot. No play yet; strong lean on Seattle.
Rams at Chiefs (-14.5), Total: 44
My Odds: Doesn’t Matter
We said it last week, and we’ll say it here again – the Los Angeles Rams season is over. Their offense played a little better on Sunday, gaining 336 yards on the road against a feisty Saints’ defense, but it ran out of gas when it mattered most. The Rams only gained 97 yards and scored six points in the final two quarters. Two of those drives resulted in negative yardage. Sunday marked their fourth straight loss, and they now sit at the very bottom of the NFC West. Few Super Bowl winners have seen a sharper decline.
We already discussed the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes’ impressive performance in Week 11. Kansas City is clearly one of the NFL’s premier teams– they’re #1 in my power ratings– and now they’re back home against an opponent that can’t score. Do I believe any team can beat another team on any given day? Sure. I don’t think this is that kind of situation, though. The Chiefs will probably blow out the Rams and cover this line. It’s gross and true. Let’s move on.
Saints at 49ers (-8), Total: 42
My Odds: 49ers -7, Total: 45
I show the San Francisco 49ers as slightly overvalued in this matchup, but I don’t show too much disparity. The New Orleans Saints beat the Rams on Sunday in a game where nothing really jumped out as notable or impressive. Andy Dalton had a very efficient game (that was pretty cool,) and the Saints offense continues to feel like one of the more unpredictable, inconsistent units in the NFL. I just don’t know what to expect week-to-week. Their defense played well enough, sacking Matthew Stafford four times and stifling the Rams’ offense in the second half.
The 49ers have yet to compete in Week 11, but if the line is correct, they’ll win. One thing I don’t like about San Francisco’s Week 12 matchup is the spot. They have the Dolphins and Bucs on deck in the coming weeks, meaning there’s a chance they don’t take the Saints seriously enough at home. Where this line sits now, I’d take the Saints. They still have the personnel to score on any team, and their offensive line should be healthier heading into this contest. They can still compete in the NFC South, too, so this is a game they’ll take seriously. It’s ugly, but I’d lean to the Saints at the current line.
Packers at Eagles (-7), Total: 45.5
My Odds: Eagles -5.5, Total: 45
I’m not so sure the Green Bay Packers season is over. They were punched in the mouth early and often in Week 11, stunned at home by a gritty Titans team, but that one loss doesn’t mean they can’t go on a run. The Packers gave up on their run game early; Aaron Jones only gained 40 yards on 12 carries against Tennessee. The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 140 rush yards per game to their last three opponents (Texans, Commanders, Colts), and the Green Bay offense can function at a high level when they succeed on the ground. I think this game could be closer than people think.
Plus, Philadelphia hasn’t played as well lately. Playing from behind for 58 minutes of their Week 11 contest, the Eagles survived and moved to 9-1 on Sunday. They were fortunate to get a pass-interference call on what turned out to be their final drive, but Jalen Hurts only threw for 173 passing yards, and their defense permitted critical scores from the Colts down the stretch. For the second week in a row, they lost the turnover battle.
I’m excited to see the Eagles go up against a Packers team that will be supremely desperate on Sunday. And since Philly is the top team in the NFC, every opponent is taking them seriously. Aaron Rodgers still has plenty in his arm, the Packers’ defense has played better in recent weeks, and they should be able to establish their run game early. A touchdown favorite in this big NFC battle feels like too much– I’d take the road dog.
Steelers at Colts (-3), Total: 38.5
My Odds: Colts -2, Total: 38
This is the only game I don’t have a solid early handle on yet, so I’ll be brief. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense looks noticeably different with T.J. Watt, but it wasn’t enough against an ice-cold Joe Burrow and a Bengals team seeking vengeance. I think the Steelers defense could wreak plenty of havoc against the Indianapolis Colts. Sacking and unsettling Matt Ryan tends to be the way to beat Indianapolis, and Watt and company will be up to the task on Monday Night Football.
The Colts played well on Sunday. In fact, it felt like they probably should have won. Their defense was stout throughout the game, Matt Ryan was efficient, and Jonathan Taylor kept pounding the rock to keep Philly’s defense honest (22 carries, 84 yards, one touchdown).
This should be a defensive battle, low scoring, and a close game throughout. Because of that, I lean to the under and the Steelers covering on the road.
WATCH MORE: The 33rd Team's heads of betting break down everything that happened in Week 11.
