Analysis
1/23/23
3 min read
Beat the Bump: Early Underdog Fantasy Player Props for Conference Championships
Last week all three plays bumped as expected, with Gabe Davis jumping 10 receiving yards, giving us nearly a 20% discount on the final line. Unfortunately, the bumps were not helpful and the picks went 1-2.
With only two games this weekend, all eyes are going to be on these lines. That makes value even harder to find, but I found two lines I am confident will get bumped. Lock them in to get that value right now.
Joe Mixon 22.5 Receiving Yards
I do not think this line will move a lot because it is already low, but a three to four increase in yards could be the difference between winning and losing. I expect this line to move closer to 25 or 26.
Mixon averages 29.8 receiving yards per game, so I think people will play higher on this line just because of that. Another reason this line will move is that when he filled in for Mixon against the Chiefs earlier this season, Samaje Perine had six receptions for 49 receiving yards. I like the higher play here because the Chiefs give up the third most receiving yards per game to running backs. Mixon was scripted out of the game last week, but if the Bills had kept it closer, I’d bet he would have gone over. This is a great higher play I think people will play early. Lock it in now to get some value on it.
George Kittle 46.5 Receiving Yards
Kittle does not get the huge volume he had seen earlier in his career, but Brock Purdy has shown he trusts Kittle in important situations. Kittle leads the team in both target share when Purdy is pressured and on third down. Those stats will probably not make his line move a lot, but I think it is what makes it an excellent pick.
The line will likely move because of his performance against Dallas in the divisional round. A lot of line movement has to do with recent performances, and this is a perfect example of that. The line will likely move to 50.5 or 51.5 receiving yards. If it ends up moving to the low 50’s, you're getting nearly 10% off on that line if you play it at 46.5. Lock the higher now to get that discount on this line.
WATCH: Betting the NFL Championship Week Edition
