Analysis
2/3/23
3 min read
Beat the Bump: Bet Super Bowl LVII, Create Your Own Discounts
When you play player entries early, you can create your own discounts. With so many people playing these lines for the Super Bowl, there is bound to be plenty of line movement before the game starts on Feb. 12. I found two lines guaranteed. Lock them in before they move to guarantee those lines at a discount.
Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions
Getting on this line before it moves to five receptions is a huge advantage. By getting it at 4.5, you are saving two receptions off the line since it would take Dallas Goedert six receptions to hit at five. Playing it at 4.5 receptions means you need only five receptions compared to seven if you play it at five receptions. That is nearly a 30% savings on this line.
The Philadelphia Eagles averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game this regular season, but only 26.5 pass attempts during the last two weeks in those two games. Goedert still had higher than 4.5 receptions. There is no way the Eagles pass less in the Super Bowl than they have during the last two weeks (barring a Patrick Mahomes injury). If they get close to their average pass volume for the regular season, Goedert should easily go higher than this line.
Jalen Hurts Over 31.5 Passing Attempts
I am shocked this number is this low. During the last two weeks, this line would have easily gone under, but those were also two massive blowouts that were never close. I predict we are getting around a 5% discount on this line, and I expect the line to rise closer to 33 pass attempts by game time.
I like this higher because I don’t see the Eagles blowing out the Chiefs as they did the Giants and 49ers the last two weeks. In his 17 starts this season, Jalen Hurts has averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game and has gone higher than 31.5 pass attempts in 11 of those games. The Chiefs also give up 36.4 pass attempts per game, the third most in the NFL. I don’t think he goes over his average for the season, but 31.5 is just too low for Hurts in what should be a very competitive game.
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