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Josh Larky’s Wild-Card Weekend Parlays

wild card weekend parlays

Below, you’ll find five wild-card parlays I’ve taken ahead of this weekend’s playoff games.

You’ll notice that this is most certainly not your typical parlay article, as there are no wild longshot bets with multiple uncorrelated parlay legs. All my analysis is statistically/logically motivated.

For each parlay, I include the implied odds of it hitting. For example, a +500 parlay has implied odds of 17%. If I’m putting money on this parlay, I expect it to hit more than 17% of the time.

Bengals -2.5 Alternate Spread + Joe Burrow 30 or More Pass Attempts

Odds: -145 (59%) on DraftKings

  • The Bengals are currently 8.5-point favorites and Lamar Jackson is not expected to play.
  • I struggle to see how the Bengals don’t beat the Ravens by at least three points, and Bengals moneyline is -460 (82% implied odds), indicating how heavily of a favorite the Bengals are.
  • Joe Burrow has at least 31 pass attempts in 15 of 16 games.
  • The Bengals and Ravens faced each other in Week 5, and the Ravens won 19-17, while Burrow attempted 35 passes.
  • The Bengals and Ravens faced each other again in Week 18, and the Bengals won 27-16, while Burrow attempted 42 passes.
  • We have seen Burrow hit his pass attempts number in both types of game script already against Baltimore.

Bengals Moneyline + Bengals UNDER 35.5 Total Points + Ravens OVER 9.5 Total Points

Odds: +105 (49%) on DraftKings

  • This is a fun way to essentially take the Bengals moneyline at +105, instead of -460 odds.
  • The Bengals topped 35.5 total points in only two of 16 games this season, against Carolina and Pittsburgh.
  • Against the Ravens this year, the Bengals had 27 or fewer points in each game.
  • The Ravens have at least ten points in 16 of 17 games.

Buccaneers Moneyline + Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +500 (17%) on DraftKings

  • Elliott has scored a TD in nine of his past ten games, with 11 total TDs in that span.
  • Buccaneers moneyline currently sits at +120 (45%), yet I view them as the better team, and one that’s also playing at home.

49ers Moneyline + Seahawks OVER 12.5 Total Points

Odds: -110 (52%) on DraftKings

  • The 49ers moneyline is -500 (83% implied odds), so we are now getting the 49ers in a roughly 50-50 situation.
  • The Seahawks scored at least 13 points in 15 of 17 games this year.
  • Opponents have reached 13 points in five of the 49ers’ past six games.

 

Bills Moneyline + Bills UNDER 38.5 Total Points + Dolphins OVER 5.5 Total Points + Josh Allen UNDER 74.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 (53%) on DraftKings

  • Bills moneyline is currently -850 (89%), with the Bills coming in as 13-point favorites over the Dolphins.
  • The Bills have been UNDER 38.5 total points in 15 of 16 games this season.
  • The Dolphins have at least 11 points in all 17 games this season.
  • Josh Allen only runs a lot when the game is close, and the spread here is 13 points, by far the highest of the weekend.
    • Allen has topped 74.5 rushing yards in four of 16 games, and all four games were decided by just three points.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Wild Card Weekend parlays. As always, please bet responsibly.

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