Analysis
3/13/23
6 min read
2023 Chicago Bears NFL Betting Preview
The Chicago Bears just made a franchise-altering trade that brought a bounty of draft picks and wide receiver DJ Moore to Chicago. What does this mean for the Monsters of the Midway this upcoming season? Let’s take a look at that question from a betting perspective.
Bears Betting Preview
Adding DJ Moore
Moore gives Chicago a new top option in their passing game, which slides Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool into supporting roles. In that sense, Chicago upgrades at three positions, where each of those players has a radically different skill set.
Justin Fields went into opening day last year with one of the worst wide receiver groups in the league. Fields has a much more complete group of pass catchers heading into this season.
Free Agency
We’ll find out more over the coming days, but San Francisco 49ers OT Mike McGlinchey and Denver Broncos DT Dre’Mont Jones would both be major upgrades. If David Montgomery re-signs, Chicago will have a rock-solid one-two punch at the position like they did last year.
NFL Draft
Chicago’s first five selections in this year’s draft are now:
- Round 1, pick 9
- Round 2, pick 53
- Round 2, pick 61
- Round 3, pick 64
- Round 4, pick 103
Chicago has another five selections for ten total picks in this year’s draft.
Roster Overview
We are still months away from finalized rosters, but with approximately $75 million in cap space and significant draft capital, the Bears are in a position to add more difference-making talent to their roster. Assuming Chicago adds an offensive tackle and a defensive lineman in free agency, it could add another offensive lineman through the draft while spending three other top-65 picks on defensive players.
2023 Schedule
Home Opponents: Lions, Packers, Vikings, Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, Raiders, Cardinals
Away Opponents: Lions, Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, Commanders, Browns
That’s actually a pretty manageable home schedule where a 5-3 type of record isn’t out of the question. They have some difficult road opponents on the docket, and there are no easy outs within their division. That said, a 4-5 record on the road isn’t off the table, either.
The Bears were 1-7 in games decided by eight points or fewer last season. They should enter opening day with a significantly better roster than they had last season. When win totals are released, I expect to have the Bears at 8 or 9 wins.
Bears +7000 to Win Super Bowl - DraftKings
From a line shopping perspective, 70-1 is a notable value play. BetMGM, FanDuel and Points Bet all have this line set at 50-1. Caesar’s and FanDuel have the Bears to win the NFC at 28:1, DraftKings has them at 25-1, while BetMGM and PointsBet have them at 22-1 in that market.
If you’re a Bears fan, I wouldn’t try to talk you out of a 70-1 long-shot bet on them to win the Super Bowl. If I could get them at 35-1 to win the NFC I’d consider that, although that 28:1 line is worth monitoring. Once the dust has settled in free agency, I’ll check back in on that.
Can Bears Win NFC North?
The Bears' odds to win the NFC North are:
- BetMGM: +350
- Caesars: +360
- DraftKings: +350
- FanDuel: +300
- PointsBet: +350
The Detroit Lions are the consensus favorite to win the division at +150 on most books. The Minnesota Vikings are in the +250 to +300 range while the Green Bay Packers are between +300 and +375.
I’m not going to tie up money for nine months on a +350 type of option when I think the Lions are going to win the division. Additionally, I don’t think the Vikings or Packers are dead in this race, either. That said, I will check back in on this market after the draft.
Justin Fields +2500 to Win MVP on BetMGM, Caesars
The NFL MVP is a quarterback award. When betting in this market, you should ask yourself two questions:
- Can this quarterback be the most productive player in the league
- Can this quarterback’s team be the top seed in their conference
To bet on a player in this market, you need to answer “yes” to at least one of those two questions. Fields ran for 1,143 yards last season, despite missing two games. He’ll have a significantly better-supporting cast on offense this year. I don’t exactly want to bet on him being the most productive quarterback this season, but I can’t completely rule him out. The NFC is weak, but the Bears probably won’t be the best team in the conference.
If Fields was 40-1 in this market, I’d have some level of interest. I have none in the 20-1 to 25-1 range that he’s currently in.
Matt Eberflus +1800 to Win Coach of the Year - BetMGM
Now we’re talking. Betting the Bears to win the division at +350 type odds is a terrible bet because if they do win the NFC North, Eberflus is going to be a Coach of the Year finalist.
Eberflus is +1300 on DraftKings and Caesar’s, he’s +1500 on PointsBet and he’s +1600 on FanDuel.
I took Eberflus at +1800 because:
- He has the profile of a traditional Coach of the Year winner.
- The Bears had the worst record last season.
- Chicago has already improved their roster.
- They have a realistic path to Wild Card contention.
- Doug Pederson was 18:1 in this market last offseason.
- Chicago is a major market that generates national interest.
- You can get him at a value on BetMGM.
If you’re going to bet on the Bears, this is the bet I made.
WATCH: Bears Trade Should Have Been Better
