Analysis
10/26/22
7 min read
Week 8 NFL Defensive Efficiency Rankings
There were three teams tied for the lead in defensive efficiency as of this time last week. And now there are two…
The 49ers got pummeled in a matchup with the Chiefs offense that figured to be strength against strength, leaving the Bills and Broncos in a virtual tie for the top spot. But first, a reminder on how we define efficiency:
Yards are easy to understand. As strange as it may be to say that about an Imperial unit of measurement, American football fans just get it. Expected points added (EPA), on the other hand – not so much. But, at its core, EPA is just another way of expressing yards. More specifically, it communicates whether the yards on a play brought a team closer to scoring based on the field position and the down and distance. And while EPA is seldom expressed with a nice, whole number, it’s more intuitive than you might think.
For example, It’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot. It also helps quantify the value of turnover plays. Another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that.
With that out of the way, we can take a look at each team’s defensive EPA per play and examine some of the interesting placements within the leaderboard going into Week 8.
T-1. Buffalo Bills (EPA/Play = -0.17) | Last Week = T-1
T-1. Denver Broncos (EPA/Play = -0.17) | Last Week = T-1
3. Dallas Cowboys (EPA/Play = -0.14) | Last Week = T-6
The Cowboys' defense held the Lions to six points, once again proving that it is one of the elite defenses in the NFL. Micah Parsons is currently the odds-on favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, ranking tied for second in sacks with seven, seventh in pressure rate at 17.5% (among players with at least 15 pressures), and third in tackles for loss with 11. The Cowboys are also tied for fifth with 12 takeaways, carrying over their success from last season.
4. New York Jets (EPA/Play = -0.13) | Last Week = 8
5. Philadelphia Eagles (EPA/Play = -0.12) | Last Week = T-6
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (EPA/Play = -0.11) | Last Week = 4
T-7. New England Patriots (EPA/Play = -0.10) | Last Week = 5
T-7. Cincinnati Bengals (EPA/Play = -0.10) | Last Week = T-9
T-9. San Francisco 49ers (EPA/Play = -0.09) | Last Week = T-1
The 49ers are the biggest drop this week after allowing a whopping 44 points to the Chiefs' offense. The 49ers' secondary had its worst performance by far, allowing 423 yards and three TDs through the air. The 49ers still rank second in early down EPA per play and are due for positive regression in the red zone and late down defense, ranking in the bottom five in both of those categories. They will look to get back on track next week against a bottom-tier offense in the Rams.
T-9. Indianapolis Colts (EPA/Play = -0.09) | Last Week = 11
T-11. Los Angeles Rams (EPA/Play = -0.07) | Last Week = 12
T-11. Jacksonville Jaguars (EPA/Play = -0.07) | Last Week = T-9
T-13. Chicago Bears (EPA/Play = -0.06) | Last Week = T-16
T-13. Washington Commanders (EPA/Play = -0.06) | Last Week = 14
15. Green Bay Packers (EPA/Play = -0.05) | Last Week = 15
16. Carolina Panthers (EPA/Play = -0.04) | Last Week = T-16
T-17. New Orleans Saints (EPA/Play = -0.03) | Last Week = 13
T-17. Tennessee Titans (EPA/Play = -0.03) | Last Week = 28
The Titans make the biggest jump from last week after holding the Colts to 10 points and scoring a 76-yard pick-six. The secondary allowed a full-yard less per coverage snap than it had in any other game this season at 5.1. This defense still ranks 30th in early down EPA per play and ranks bottom-10 in pressure rate. With games against the Chiefs, Bengals and Eagles on the horizon, the Titans might find themselves back to their position near the bottom soon.
T-19. Seattle Seahawks (EPA/Play = -0.02) | Last Week = 27
The Seahawks are starting to show improvement after holding the Chargers to 23 points this week and the Cardinals to nine points the week before. They have lowered their yards per passing attempt allowed from 8.9 through Week 5 to 7.9 through Week 7, and they currently rank 16th in early down EPA per play. The Seahawks are currently one of the most surprising teams thus far, and an improved defense could go a long way toward a playoff push.
T-19. Miami Dolphins (EPA/Play = -0.02) | Last Week = T-21
T-19. Pittsburgh Steelers (EPA/Play = -0.02) | Last Week = 20
T-19. New York Giants (EPA/Play = -0.02) | Last Week = T-16
T-19. Baltimore Ravens (EPA/Play = -0.02) | Last Week = T-21
T-24. Arizona Cardinals (EPA/Play = -0.01) | Last Week = T-21
T-24. Minnesota Vikings (EPA/Play = -0.01) | Last Week = T-21
T-26. Los Angeles Chargers (EPA/Play = 0.00) | Last Week = T-25
T-26. Kansas City Chiefs (EPA/Play = 0.00) | Last Week = T-25
28. Houston Texans (EPA/Play = 0.01) | Last Week = T-16
29. Cleveland Browns (EPA/Play = 0.02) | Last Week = T-30
30. Las Vegas Raiders (EPA/Play = 0.03) | Last Week = T-30
31. Atlanta Falcons (EPA/Play = 0.07) | Last Week = 29
The Falcons' defense was torched by Joe Burrow and the Bengals, allowing 35 points (28 in the first half). Burrow went nuclear, throwing for 481 yards and three TDs and achieving the second-highest SIS Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) this year among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts in a game. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell went down with a hamstring injury, and safety Jaylinn Hawkins suffered a concussion this week in a secondary that is already thin with injuries and lacking in success, as it is yielding the third-most yards per passing attempt already.
32. Detroit Lions (EPA/Play = 0.13) | Last Week = 32
Prepared by James Weaver
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