Analysis
10/9/22
8 min read
Week 5: Live Fantasy, Betting, DFS Updates
Oct. 9, 2022
"The Rams will not be able to move the ball against any team with elite pressure rates. Cooper Kupp will never be hindered by the offensive line, but the rest of the offense will not be able to perform at a high level." Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) -7:23 PM ET
"Lots of players OUT with concussions in the early slate. Bridgewater, Olave, Freiermuth, Levi Wallace. I'm happy to see NFL's new protocols very clearly in effect." - Ben Wolbransky (@BenWolby) 3:32 p.m. ET.
"Gabe Davis is the poster child for why we should target WRs on good/elite offenses. 2 catches for 160 yards and 2 TDs already today. DJ Moore is at 13 catches for 138 yards and only 1 TD on the season." - Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) 2:09 p.m. ET.
Fantasy/Betting/DFS Analysis
"With Amon-Ra St. Brown active today, TJ Hockenson slides down a few spots in my rankings. The Patriots are among the bottom-third of teams at defending the slot-WR while being the seventh-best at defending the TE position. The Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns against the TE position, though, so Hockenson should remain in your line-up. WR DJ Chark is inactive, so Josh Reynolds becomes a viable flex play in deeper leagues." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 12:13 p.m. ET.
"With the Lions' bye coming up next week, it’d be malfeasance for them to slot Amon-Ra back in there without strong confidence that he’s ready. Given that, I’m assuming he should be able to operate in his normal role today, and you should fire him up with that expectation." - Maxx Forde (@maxxforde) 12:08 p.m. ET
"Bills’ WR Isaiah McKenzie is inactive today. Gabriel Davis could see an extra target or two, but with TE Dawson Knox already out we could see rookie Khalil Shakir really feast in the slot. Sharkir is only startable in the deepest of leagues, but I really like him as a sneaky DFS play." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 11:47 a.m. ET.
"Rookie WR Khalil Shakir will be in the fill time slot role without Jamison Crowder and Isaiah Mckenzie for the Buffalo Bills." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 11:35 a.m. ET.
"Reports are that Bucs WR Julio Jones (knee) will NOT play today against his former team, and WR Russell Gage (back) WILL play against the Falcons. This is the first time this year the Bucs will have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Gage on the field together. Atlanta isn’t horrible against the pass, but I expect Godwin will thrive this week in the slot. Brady will probably force a TD to Gage at some point; he appreciates the revenge-game narrative. Keep an eye on TE Cade Otton. Atlanta is the third-worst defense against opposing TE in both fantasy points and yards allowed." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 11:16 a.m. ET.
"Bears’ RB David Montgomery, listed as questionable for Sunday due to a knee injury, plans to play against the Vikings barring any pregame setbacks, per @AdamSchefter. Montgomery is clearly rushing back because he is afraid of permanently losing snaps to Khalil Herbert, but I think that ship has sailed. I expect a 60/40 split (Herbert/Monty) this week, and in this inept offense, that doesn’t bode well for either of their fantasy value." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 10:51 a.m. ET.
"Piggy-backing off of Jordan’s Commander’s take; Tennessee has allowed the second-most fantasy points to perimeter (outside, non-slot) receivers. Curtis Samuel has been dominating the slot snaps this year (58.1%), while McLaurin has been lining up on the outside on 87% of his snaps. The change in the types of routes probably explains McLaurin’s reduction in target share (15.2% compared to over 25% last season), but this matchup looks to favor the routes McLaurin is running. I’m looking for a get-right game from McLaurin in Week 5." - Kevin Wheeler (@FF_Wheeler) 10:38 a.m. ET.
"With Logan Thomas showing up on the injury report, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel are in for a massive target share. Wentz has attempted 40 passes in each game this season." - Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) 10:09 a.m. ET.
Survivor Pool Advice
#CircaSurvivor 2022 🏈🏆
Week 5 Selections📄 PDF: https://t.co/eIsJf3FHO3 pic.twitter.com/4dXSwwL9b7
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) October 9, 2022
Giants vs. Packers
There’s a good chance that you’ve already used Green Bay over the last few weeks. If you haven’t, the Giants are pretty outmatched from a talent perspective in this matchup. The traveling to London component, paired with the Packers playing an overtime game last week, are the only real negative factors for me in this contest.
Steelers vs. Bills
Buffalo was the fourth most popular choice in Circa’s survivor tournament this week. I’ll be saving the Bills for a future date, but they are certainly a reasonable choice as -13.5 home favorites facing a rookie quarterback making his first start. Factor in the Bills front four's significant trench advantage, and there is a pretty narrow path to a Steelers' victory here.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
The Bucs are the second most popular survivor selection in Circa this week, which makes a lot of sense on a number of levels. The Falcons are down Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts, while Tom Brady’s Bucs are coming off back-to-back losses. If you’re not using Tampa here, Week 10 vs. Seattle, Week 17 vs. Carolina, and Week 18 at Atlanta are your next best deployment spots. Brady is also 45 years old while dealing with significant things in his personal life. I’d rather use Brady’s Bucs now in survivor, in an obvious correction spot, against a depleted Falcons offense.
Bears vs. Vikings
The Vikings are the third most popular Survivor pick in Circa this week. If you’ve played survivor in the past, you might already know that taking Minnesota in this format is often not for the faint of heart. From a matchup perspective, Minnesota has multiple advantages in this game, and they could very realistically cover their -7.5 line. I don’t have a problem using the Vikings here, and I plan to use them in one of my pools myself. That said, in pools where you have to pick two teams late in the season, the Vikings have appealing home games against the Jets in Week 14 and the Giants in Week 16. Those are your next best spots if you don’t use them here.
Texans vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars were the most used team in Circa’s survivor pool this week by a significant margin. I had no intention of using Jacksonville before that reveal, and I’m definitely not using them now.
Seahawks vs. Saints
The Saints are an aggressive pick in survivor this week, considering all the appealing options. But I like that play to the point I may do it in one of my tournament entries. I want to take the Saints in a spread pool, but that 5.5 number is a little higher than I’d like it to be.
49ers vs. Panthers
I do a three-team, ten-point teaser early every week. The Packers and Bucs were the first two legs, and the 49ers were my third. My reasoning for that stance was that San Francisco’s defensive line was set to have a massive trench edge in this contest, and I’d be getting them at +3.5 against a spiraling Panthers football operation. Now? The 49ers are down Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw, reducing their advantage in the trenches. Now, I’m more reliant on the 49ers stringing together a good offensive showing against a sneaky solid Panthers defense. I’m less enthusiastic about this leg of the teaser than I was earlier in the week where I got Green Bay and Tampa Bay before both numbers went up (only half a point in the Packers' case).
Dolphins vs. Jets
With Hill and Waddle in I took the Dolphins here. If you’re thinking about this bet, make sure you line shop to see if you can get Miami -3.
Raiders vs. Chiefs
In my preseason survivor analysis, I intended to save Kansas City and Buffalo until later in the year. That remains my plan. I took the Raiders when they dipped to +7.5 because I thought the hook was a step too high in this matchup.
Ryan Reynolds, (@RyanReynoldsNFL) 1:54 a.m. ET
WATCH MORE: Which players do you need to start or sit in Week 5? Josh Larky has the answers.
